Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

[Vanoi]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ce-2022-09-01/

Wow these Russian gas and oil executives seem to be dropping like flies these days.

[conon394]

China will be the long term benefactor out of this conflict, like it has been (If indirectly) from every major conflict in the 21st Century. By this I mean it has been allowed to strengthen its military and grow its influence and economy whilst its peer competitors diminished either in global influence, economic or military terms to varying degree's.

Whilst China is closing in on the US economically, its my assessment that it still has a long way to go before it could or would want to go toe to toe with the US Military. I've yet to see any evidence that the PLAN possesses the capabilities to prevent the USN in concert with its regional Pacific allies carrying the day in any Naval conflict.....

Hypersonic Missile systems might have been touted as the great equaliser by the Russians and Chinese over the last 2-4 years to answer to the USN, but if the performance of RF S-400 SAM Systems (The other branch of the area denial tree as seen in Syria) in Ukraine is anything to go by, there is still huge question marks on whether these are real world capabilities or Pie in the Sky weapon systems that are designed to give Western Military planners bad dreams.

It is also my assessment that in its current state of the Russian Army could easily be contained by NATO and is not in the position to expand this conflict outside of Ukraine, say into the Baltics. That's not to say the Ukrainians possess the strength to throw them out of the 20% of the country they have already taken, the current offensive I.V.O Kherson will have massive implications into how each side see's its the viability of continuing the conflict after Winter sets in.

The next few weeks will therefore be key......

Of course assessing the PLAN is made more difficult by its opaque nature compared to western countries (and lack of any real military actions since invading Vietnam). There seems to a real desire to chew and swallow all China's claims and assume they really can match them in the friction of an actual war. Its sort of similar to how all their Economic Data is taken as well even though deep and careful studies show China is probably systematically over reporting growth.

Not to say we jump from see look Russia was not ready for prime time and thus we have overestimating China as well... but I do think China benefits from credulous acceptance of its claims.

The next few weeks will therefore be key......

Seems fair. Sans any real injection of new Air assets (F_16s, or Migs etc) and slow delivery of new AA assets. I am not sure the Ukraine is not really just doing shaping writ large and also seeing if new units are cohesive.

[Cyclops]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ce-2022-09-01/

Wow these Russian gas and oil executives seem to be dropping like flies these days.

Fake news, they've been dying at an unnaturally high rate since January...oh wait...

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...es-2022-09-01/

Fancy having to send Putin a memo "bad idea Vlad, don't atack Ukraine" I guess the US making a tiny start on Green Energy has put unbearable pressure on the fossil fuel producers after all. Hopefully the wretchedly evil Saudi regime will fall apart next.

...Its sort of similar to how all their Economic Data is taken as well even though deep and careful studies show China is probably systematically over reporting growth....

I'm pretty sure Australian iron exports to China have been steady (allowing for COVID) or growing for decades. They are rolling along nicely but I believe there's a some demographic and energy hurdles ahead.

[Laser101]

Don't worry, I'm sure they'll soon retreat as a "gesture of good faith" (aka they got their butts kicked)

Why did they bother with it in the first place though? Again, if they'd abandoned it earlier and fortified on the left bank (especially if they blew up all the bridges), it would be far more difficult for the Ukrainians to launch an offensive.
I have to wonder how much of a clue the Russians have about the situation; they don't really have many prospects of further territorial capture and would probably be better advised to dig in where the geography is most advantageous to deny Ukrainian attempts at retaking ground.

[Seether]

I posted an example of ordinary soldiers using SS flag during NATO occupation of Afghanistan.

No, you actually didn't. The "SS" on that is for "Scout Sniper", not the Nazi Schutzstaffel - this is old news and you're (once again) miserably failing at your typical, irrational revisionism/Russian propaganda. But everything US is bad, amirite?

[Coughdrop addict]

Why did they bother with it in the first place though? Again, if they'd abandoned it earlier and fortified on the left bank (especially if they blew up all the bridges), it would be far more difficult for the Ukrainians to launch an offensive.
I have to wonder how much of a clue the Russians have about the situation; they don't really have many prospects of further territorial capture and would probably be better advised to dig in where the geography is most advantageous to deny Ukrainian attempts at retaking ground.

If I had to guess I'd say it was Putin's direct orders that made them do so. It's the same trap autocrats often fall into. Having surrounded himself with sycophants and yes men, the autocrat comes to believe his own propaganda that he is an infallible genius and decides to take over managing the nation's faltering war effort instead of leaving it to the generals. The autocrat then declares a ludicrous course of action, most of his generals are too cowed to point out how bad it is, and those who do are overruled by the autocrat or dismissed/executed. When this results in even worse performance and losses the autocrat will blame everyone but himself and take over managing even more of the war effort and delegate less, resulting in yet further losses.

Call me optimistic, but this may be the beginning of the end for Putin's war.

[nhytgbvfeco2]

It was taken in the early days of the war when Russia thought this would be a walk in the park. Retreating from it was initially unnecessary, as there was no large scale preparation by Ukraine to retake it, nor did Ukraine have the means to destroy the bridges. It does now. In the meantime they've said one too many times that "Russia is in Cherson forever", so retreat would be quite the embarrasment. They're stubborn enough that they'll continue to try to hold on to it for a while longer, it's not like Putin cares about the tens of thousands of soldiers he's losing. Just look how many times they got completely destroyed on Snake Island before they finally "retreated as a gesture of good faith" (after there was nothing and no one left to retreat on the island).

[Morifea]

If I had to guess I'd say it was Putin's direct orders that made them do so. It's the same trap autocrats often fall into. Having surrounded himself with sycophants and yes men, the autocrat comes to believe his own propaganda that he is an infallible genius and decides to take over managing the nation's faltering war effort instead of leaving it to the generals. The autocrat then declares a ludicrous course of action, most of his generals are too cowed to point out how bad it is, and those who do are overruled by the autocrat or dismissed/executed. When this results in even worse performance and losses the autocrat will blame everyone but himself and take over managing even more of the war effort and delegate less, resulting in yet further losses.

Call me optimistic, but this may be the beginning of the end for Putin's war.

Seems fitting, there are indications that Vlad is also messing around with the Troop displacement down to the level of Platoons.
Reminds me of some other old and ill dictator.

[Laser101]

It was taken in the early days of the war when Russia thought this would be a walk in the park. Retreating from it was initially unnecessary, as there was no large scale preparation by Ukraine to retake it, nor did Ukraine have the means to destroy the bridges. It does now. In the meantime they've said one too many times that "Russia is in Cherson forever", so retreat would be quite the embarrasment. They're stubborn enough that they'll continue to try to hold on to it for a while longer, it's not like Putin cares about the tens of thousands of soldiers he's losing. Just look how many times they got completely destroyed on Snake Island before they finally "retreated as a gesture of good faith" (after there was nothing and no one left to retreat on the island).

Of course, while destroying the bridges interferes with Russian resupply, it also will leave the Ukrainians with a difficult task crossing the river if/when they retake Kherson. In other words, the same actions that make retaking the city easier make going past it harder.

[Heathen Hammer]

No, you actually didn't. The "SS" on that is for "Scout Sniper", not the Nazi Schutzstaffel - this is old news and you're (once again) miserably failing at your typical, irrational revisionism/Russian propaganda. But everything US is bad, amirite?

Then Utkin's ink stands for "spetsnaz sniper", and all the solar symbols just show their interest in Hinduism. :^)

Of course, while destroying the bridges interferes with Russian resupply, it also will leave the Ukrainians with a difficult task crossing the river if/when they retake Kherson. In other words, the same actions that make retaking the city easier make going past it harder.

The reason why "counter-offensive" failed is due to planning by sclerotic NATO generals that think that WW2 tactics of massive tank waves is something viable in the age of drones, ATGMs, and thermal imaging.

[nhytgbvfeco2]

The counter offensive is still ongoing, nothing has failed.

Destroying the bridges will make it harder to move south from Cherson, but there's nothing stopping the Ukranians from doing so through the open steppe of Zaporozhia.

[Heathen Hammer]

The counter offensive is still ongoing, nothing has failed.

I remember reading how Heer generals had the same type of cope after Kursk.
Though offensive itself didn't seem to be the goal, which was to capture NPP before international observers get there first.

[Septentrionalis]

The reason why "counter-offensive" failed is due to planning by sclerotic NATO generals that think that WW2 tactics of massive tank waves is something viable in the age of drones, ATGMs, and thermal imaging.

I am not sure if this is the best time for Russia backers to lecture others on military incompetence and outdated equipment.

[Heathen Hammer]

I am not sure if this is the best time for Russia backers to lecture others on military incompetence and outdated equipment.

Both sides have that, but Russians showed they learn from mistakes, Ukraine/NATO - not so much. Then again, given how US military is run by Chinese asset Milley, I wouldn't be surprised that other NATO generals could occasionally work for Kremlin as well.

[conon394]

I remember reading how Heer generals had the same type of cope after Kursk.
Though offensive itself didn't seem to be the goal, which was to capture NPP before international observers get there first.

Really who knew you had contacts with the Ukrainian High Command. On balance one can assume Ukraine can only have modest aims. Integrating a crazy quit of NATO weaponry, new troops and still you know having a tiny air force. Just the possibility of measurable local results is impressive given the original balance of forces. I don't recall any prediction of 24 hour charge to the Sevastopol.

Both sides have that, but Russians showed they learn from mistakes, Ukraine/NATO - not so much. Then again, given how US military is run by Chinese asset Milley, I wouldn't be surprised that other NATO generals could occasionally work for Kremlin as well.

Its always fun to watch you just make stuff up but than demand sources...

[Heathen Hammer]

Really who knew you had contacts with the Ukrainian High Command. On balance one can assume Ukraine can only have modest aims. Integrating a crazy quit of NATO weaponry, new troops and still you know having a tiny air force. Just the possibility of measurable local results is impressive given the original balance of forces. I don't recall any prediction of 24 hour charge to the Sevastopol.

That's just my guess given how badly the zerg rush aspect of "counter-offensive" planned. Then again, NATO generals that were doing the planning probably view Ukrainians as expendable cannon-fodder, which explains the strange planning aspect of it.

Its always fun to watch you just make stuff up but than demand sources...

We had that conversation before in another thread, where I posted Milley himself admitting that he will assist Chinese intelligence in the event of US-China war. Only makes sense to assume that other NATO generals work for foreign interests as well.

[Ludicus]

The Ukrainian counteroffensive, designed by the US after war game simulations, has been successful on a central front but stopped on two side fronts. We will only be able to know if it is fully victorious if they recapture Kherson. Let's wait and see.

Before winter arrives, a very intense autumn is approaching. Both sides will want to make progress before the cold weather arrives. We will have an intensification of conflict in these two months of September and October. A scenario will unfold where both sides will solidify their positions and prepare for trench warfare and a possible offensive in early spring.

The constant shelling around the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant by Ukraine can eventually lead to a soft nuclear accident, and that is extremely worrisome. It makes no sense to accuse the Russians of hiding heavy war material in the nuclear power plant and then say they are bombing themselves. The remaining nuclear power plants on Ukrainian territory have never been attacked by the Russians since the beginning of the war, why would they bomb the only nuclear power plant they are occupying? I’m reproducing the words of a military expert from CNN Portugal, today at noon.

Of course, the departure of the Russians would allow Ukrainian troops to occupy the plant by crossing the Dnieper.

It was also mentioned that Ukraine was not very interested in the IAEA visit to the nuclear power plant. In a way, the arrival of IAEA nuclear experts at the plant represents a small diplomatic defeat for Ukraine, which only days ago expressed its disagreement. Situation at Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant 'Very Alarming ...

Ukraine’s representative said the withdrawal of Russian troops and return of the station to the legitimate control of Ukraine is the only way to remove the nuclear threat at Zaporizhzhia

The only way to remove the nuclear threat is Ukraine stop shelling the nuclear power plant.
--
From the news. Wolfgang Kubicki, vice-president of the Bundstag, has spoken out in favor of opening Nord Stream 2
Wolfgang Kubicki für Öffnung der Pipeline Nord Stream 2

There is no reason why the German parliament vice-president shouldn’t join Roger Waters (Pink Floyd) and a 13-year-old Ukrainian girl on the list of Ukraine's enemies. For a “vibrant democracy”, it’s perfectly normal. Inconvenient truths are quickly forgotten.
Roger Waters of Pink Floyd is on Ukraine's notorious Myrotvorets kill list... - The Rio Times

Their personal information is published, such as the addresses of their homes, phone numbers, and bank account numbers; anything that can help to track them down quickly. When the people on this list are murdered, like Italian journalist Andrea Rocchelli, the word ‘liquidated,’ is stamped in Ukrainian in big red letters over their picture.

On 8 August 2022, Faina Savenkova , 13 years old, wrote a letter to the Secretary General of Amnesty International regarding the publication of children’s personal data by the Ukrainian website Myrotvorets. Letter from Faina Savenkova to the Secretary General of the Amnesty International

the Ukrainian website ‘Myrotvorets’ (myrotvorets.center) included my name in its lists of enemies of Ukraine, publishing my personal data and making public my home address, social networks and passport details of my relatives. I then wrote an appeal to UN Secretary General António Guterres and UNICEF. My case received widespread publicity, after which I began to receive threats and insults.

[conon394]

We had that conversation before in another thread, where I posted Milley himself admitting that he will assist Chinese intelligence in the event of US-China war. Only makes sense to assume that other NATO generals work for foreign interests as well.

Aside from the fact you completely mischaracterizing the man's statements thay do lead to second made up conclusion.

[Heathen Hammer]

There isn't room in mischaracterization when Milley says that he will inform enemy generals of his own army's plans in the event of the war. Hot mic or him being that dumb is another question.
And if a man like Milley made it to his rank, that means that in other NATO countries it is probably much worse.

[conon394]

From the news. Wolfgang Kubicki, vice-president of the Bundstag, has spoken out in favor of opening Nord Stream 2

Yep because nothing like facing the longer term extensional crisis of global warming and say yep good thing we shut nuclear power down (the green choice) better get back to that not green choice and energy dependency on Putin's Russia and maybe keep burning brown coal for another decade.