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In fact, mean incubation period observed is: 3.0 days (0 -24 days range)
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For those interested,
Latest news and resources - BMJ coverage of the coronavirus outbreak.
A doctor who was reprimanded by police and ignored by the CCP when he tried to warn others about the virus has died.
This is very troubling in a couple major ways.
1. It shows that China did try to suppress the truth, and only share the information when they couldn't keep a lid on the story. This raises the question as to what the Chinese might be still hiding, such as the virus has spread more widely than the Chinese government has admitted.
2. The fact that this doctor has died suggest that the virus might be more deadly than the Chinese government has led us to believe.
Perhaps the number of deaths in China are being seriously under reported. The doctor who died was far too visible to suppress the information of his death, but on ordinary people, the Chinese might be having a lot more deaths due to the virus than they have reported.
February 12, 2020, 12:38 PM
Common Soldier
Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.
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In fact, mean incubation period observed is: 3.0 days (0 -24 days range]
The mean incubation period is irrelevant, what is important is the maximum incubation period. Instead of error on the side of caution, the 14 day quarantine might not be long enough, allowing some people to still spread the disease even after successfully completing the quaratine. Just one carrier has the potential to spread the disease. The current quarantine procedures might be inadequate, and it looks like health officials are taking a serious gamble with peoples' lives.
Given the attitude the officials have displayed so far, it wouldn't surprise ne uf the officials are not deliberately down playing the seriousness of the virus, and the virus could be even worse they they are letting the public know.
Unlike some other diseases, the coronavirus apparently can still spread the disease even in the incubation period when there are no symptoms.
February 12, 2020, 01:45 PM
B. W.
Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.
A few anecdotes:
A Grand Prix event scheduled for mid-April in China has been postponed until next year. This suggests that there is no quick end in sight.
No news coming from North Korea. It has a relatively porous border with China, so this is quite suspicious.
I have read for days about round the clock cremation going on in the affected provinces in China and now this bit of speculative news comes out:
The only good news is that it apparently hasn't affected Africa. It if hits Africa all bets are off.
February 13, 2020, 05:44 PM
Ludicus
Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Common Soldier
what is important is the maximum incubation period. Instead of error on the side of caution, the 14 day quarantine might not be long enough, .
The 14 day quarantine is enough. In fact, the article" Clinical characteristics of 2019 novel coronavirus infection in China"Download PDF published on Sunday,Feb 9, is a pre-publication paper and has not been peer-reviewed and therefore should not be used to guide clinical practice.
I would like to add that many experts are skeptic. It's an acute disease, 24 days is too much, according to various specialists in infectious diseases, pneumology, and virologists. In the article, the median incubation period was shorter than a recent report of 425 patients (3.0 days vs. 5.2 days) and that matters from a clinical point of view.
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The analysis of 22 studies reveals that human coronaviruses such as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) coronavirus, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) coronavirus or endemic human coronaviruses (HCoV) can persist on inanimate surfaces like metal, glass or plastic for up to 9 days, but can be efficiently inactivated by surface disinfection procedures with 62-71% ethanol, 0.5% hydrogen peroxide or 0.1% sodium hypochlorite within 1 minute.
February 14, 2020, 04:15 AM
sumskilz
Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ludicus
The 14 day quarantine is enough. In fact, the article" Clinical characteristics of 2019 novel coronavirus infection in China"Download PDF published on Sunday,Feb 9, is a pre-publication paper and has not been peer-reviewed and therefore should not be used to guide clinical practice.
I would like to add that many experts are skeptic. It's an acute disease, 24 days is too much, according to various specialists in infectious diseases, pneumology, and virologists. In the article, the median incubation period was shorter than a recent report of 425 patients (3.0 days vs. 5.2 days) and that matters from a clinical point of view.
In that study, the incubation period was defined as "the duration from the contact of the transmission source to the onset of symptoms". The obvious issue is the possibility that those with the longer assumed incubation period, could have been exposed a second time more recently. There is cause for skepticism. Although from the perspective of policy in countries where there are still few cases, it would make sense to institute a 24 day quarantine in my opinion. Because if 24 days is incorrect, you've unnecessarily inconvenienced a small number people for ten days, but if it's correct, you've failed to prevent the potential deaths of many more. Not to mention, ten days in quarantine as a healthy person is much less of a inconvenience than contracting the disease even for those who get through it okay.
February 14, 2020, 04:31 AM
Ludicus
Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.
Quote:
Originally Posted by sumskilz
The obvious issue is the possibility that those with the longer assumed incubation period, could have been exposed a second time more recently.There is cause for skepticism
Precisely, that's it.
Quote:
but if it's correct, you've failed to prevent the potential deaths of many more.
It is unlikely, but I can't disagree with that.
Check minute 6- "Sometimes what can happen is a reinfection later on who makes the exposure looks longer than it really is. In fact they have seen this in Ebola where there is a double exposure"
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Edit, 18-2-2020
A single diagnostic RT-PCR test is not enough to diagnose the infection.
A study was made in the journal Radiology shows that in patients at high risk for 2019-nCoV infection, chest CT evidence of viral pneumonia may precede positive negative RT-PCR test results. Chest CT for Typical 2019-nCoV Pneumonia: Relationship to ...
Quote:
In the context of typical clinical presentation and exposure to other individuals with 2019-nCoV, CT features of viral pneumonia may be strongly suspicious for 2019-nCoV infection despite negative RT-PCR results. In these cases, repeat swab testing and patient isolation should be considered.
Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.
I'm sure some of you may have heard the rumors about incinerators in Wuhan working round the clock to dispose of bodies and now this unverified article about 40 new units delivered to Wuhan:
The rumor mill is working overtime, but the fact remains that the numbers coming from China are remarkably low considering that they've quarantined over 50 million people.
Also, it has been verified that a hospital director in his 50s died of the disease. This is pretty unusual.
February 20, 2020, 02:06 PM
Stario
Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.
It is interesting that we are barely hitting double figures in 'deaths outside China' (if that, as most of the sources aren't very reliable).
Are the Chinese commies purging (again) & this time blaming it on a respiratory virus?! What ever happened to the TANKMAN LOL LOL :laughter::laughter::laughter:
February 20, 2020, 06:24 PM
B. W.
Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.
The information available is sketchy at best. The news media seems to have a collective desire to keep this story on the back pages.
I don't have the links on hand, but I've read that US hospitals are quietly preparing for a possible pandemic. Also, I noted that there is at least one US Army base in South Korea under partial quarantine.
Still not much out of Africa or South America. Both are places with heavy Chinese traffic. Very odd.
February 20, 2020, 06:54 PM
Phier
Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.
I've not been following this closely but from what I read a few weeks back the problem with numbers from China is how they record the numbers.
In most western nations like the US, we extrapolate. So if say 5 out of a 100 people are dying from something, and there is a population of 10000 with symptoms of the disease we will extrapolate and say 500 people are believed to have died from that disease even if only a few were tested for it directly.
In China they only officially give numbers for tested cases that were positive. So if someone dies untested its a suspected cause but isn't recorded as the cause. So where in the US we might say 500 people have died from something, China might say 45 because those were the only ones tested. If a outbreak gets big enough testing everyone may be impractical so the numbers are not accurate.
February 20, 2020, 07:10 PM
Diamat
Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.
I hope everyone here realizes that this virus isn't dangerous to most people. To healthy young adults, this virus is no more dangerous than the regular flu. That being said, I live in South Korea, and I find it hilarious how everyone is freaking out about a bloody flu.
February 20, 2020, 07:36 PM
B. W.
Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Diamat
I hope everyone here realizes that this virus isn't dangerous to most people. To healthy young adults, this virus is no more dangerous than the regular flu. That being said, I live in South Korea, and I find it hilarious how everyone is freaking out about a bloody flu.
I see the young still throw caution to the wind. Nothing new there. I will say that I can't speak for the others, but I'm not "freaking out."
Unlike you, however, I'm not a healthy young adult by any stretch of anyone's imagination, although I am relatively healthy. It is a good idea for someone of my advanced age to try and stay informed and abreast of the situation. Wouldn't you agree or are you only concerned about yourself?
February 20, 2020, 07:41 PM
Diamat
Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.
Yes, I can certainly understand the anxiety of those of advanced age. It's not a good time to be old or frail.
February 21, 2020, 01:20 PM
B. W.
Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Diamat
Yes, I can certainly understand the anxiety of those of advanced age. It's not a good time to be old or frail.
Yeah well, being old ain't what it used to be. Anyway, there's plenty of evidence this disease should be of concern to those in their 20s:
Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.
Yet mortality rate is around 1%, similar to the seasonal flu.
February 21, 2020, 06:45 PM
sumskilz
Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Diamat
Yet mortality rate is around 1%, similar to the seasonal flu.
If that is true, that would be ten times the case fatality rate of seasonal flu, but I've never seen it estimated that low.
February 21, 2020, 07:21 PM
Dekhatres
Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.
in one day Italy now has the most cases in eu and i live in Trentino, in the province to the north between Lombardia and Veneto where infections occured, it's been an honor lads
February 21, 2020, 07:46 PM
Diamat
Re: Coronavirus outbreak - From China to the World.
Quote:
Originally Posted by sumskilz
If that is true, that would be ten times the case fatality rate of seasonal flu, but I've never seen it estimated that low.
Oh, you're right. I just checked the newest stats. The seasonal flu is much lower. And the mortality rate of the coronavirus is said to be around 2.3%.