What if Japanese had striked Americans in Pear Harbour in 1937

[visser300]

1937, the year the total war in China broke out, imperial Goverment was afraid of the intervention of America and they want to guarantee that Americans would loose their support over China so they decide to strike American right at their very door step.

The imagine attack had the same result with the attack in 1942

what would happen in pacific theatre for next 5 years with assumption that ww2 still broke out in 1939 and France still lost the war few months later

[Aikanár]

For starters, the IJN would only be able to carry out the surprise attack with 5 carriers: Soryu, Hosho, Kaga, Akagi and Ryujo totaling 264 planes instead of 6 carriers and 414 planes of the original attack.

Then there would be the issue of planes used, neither the A6M nor the D3A would have been available, since they didn't exist in '37. Of course you could make a case that the A5M would be superior to the F2F but still you'd see a far less formidable strike group approaching Pearl both with regards to ships in service, total planes and quality of planes than in late '41.

[IrishBlood]

What I always wondered was why didnt the Japanese land troops on Hawaii?? American forces were inexperienced and taken totally unawares. The Japs would have total air superiority and a hell of a lot of naval artillary support. They wouldnt even have had to capture all the islands, just take the important ones and then isolate the rest of them.

Jap subs could be rebased to pearl harbor and interdict US reinforcments sent from the west coast. I mean, the Japs DID capture some of the Aleutian islands

[Cyclops]

I think the "Japanese invade Hawaii" scenario has been gamed and its a thrashing for the IJN and IJA.

If Japan attacked the US in 1937, then the US conquers the Home Islands in 1940. The US walloped Japan in four years while giving more than half their attention to Europe. Even without the A Bomb Japan would be down and out in a couple of years against 100% US opposition.

[visser300]

USA did not simply split their navy into 50% to two front war. In fact, Japan faced 60% US Navy mighty power in 1944 and 80% its strength in 1945 and conquering Japan homeland was still a very serious issue.

Radar and radio would not exist in this imaginable period. Moreover, I dont think Americans was willing to continue the war if Japan had won Midway and Coral Sea battles in 1938 decisively. In 1942, even if US lost the battes, they would simply bring new fresh troops to frontline.

[Condottiere 40K]

153
They'd still have to alter their torpedoes for the shallow waters of Pearl Harbour, and the inspiration for the raid came from the British success at Taranto in 1940.

[SLN445]

Would the UK and its spheres of influence stay out of such a war? World War Two hasn't started yet in Europe so if they where to be involved then Japan would face the full strength of the Commonwealth rather then just what could be spared from Europe.

[DarkArk]

The US Pacific Fleet was still in San Diego in 1937, it wouldn't move until 1940. So this literally could not have happened.

[conon394]

Of course you could make a case that the A5M would be superior to the F2F

I have to say I don't think you could make that argument. But at the same its easy to see the BT-1 as superior to the D1A.

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what would happen in pacific theatre for next 5 years with assumption that ww2 still broke out in 1939 and France still lost the war few months later

Can't really happen without magic. As noted by others above Japan would lack the key aircraft and CV numbers to lash out so strongly. More importantly the US would start the navy build race on better terms. There would be no declaration of war from Hitler so the US would be free transfer the Atlantic fleet over to the Pacific. Japan would have to be more careful as well since it would not have weak Vichy colonies nor reduced UK and Dutch navies and colonies to prey upon.

What would japan really gain?

And again w/o the Zero the P-36 Hawk would give any and every US base air superiority from a technical standpoint.

[Lord Oda Nobunaga]

I don't think the Japanese had any form of air superiority at that time to begin with.
Wasn't that sort of a work in progress until like 1939 or 1940?

[conon394]

I don't think the Japanese had any form of air superiority at that time to begin with.
Wasn't that sort of a work in progress until like 1939 or 1940?

Exactly!

Nobody was really in the race to produce a CV forces with aircraft that could contest with land based air but the US and Japan. Japan won the race up to 1941 but it had too cut a lot corners. The US since it was not planning for war came second but did better in the end. The UK was distracted by war in Europe and the RN never got the budget it needed to develop the aircraft it needed (range etc, but it gets a pat for night fighting radar and radio based ability even with absolutely piss poor out of date planes that would have got shredded in the daylight). Germany and France were not even trying really. The best thing you can say about the Graf Zeppelin is it wasted German money and time. If the Axis had been smart Germany should have tried let Japan tow the thing away before the end of 41. Japan could have used a fast light CV mostly done hull and such. The UK was not looking for a new war and might well have let it happen.

[Lord Oda Nobunaga]

Yeah, Pearl Harbour itself was probably impossible in 1937 given what the Japanese had to work with at that time.

[hellheaven1987]

It is more realistic that Japan attacked Commonwealth than US, although total war against China did not even start until 1939.

[conon394]

It is more realistic that Japan attacked Commonwealth than US, although total war against China did not even start until 1939.

Well more realistically would have been war with the Dutch their colonies seem have had the key resources Japan was slowly loosing to the US (real or potential embargoes) and they did not really have the capacity to deal with the IJN.

It at least would have a been a sane roll of the dice to see if either the UK or USA would rouse itself to save Dutch colonies. Attacking the US was foolish - attacking everyone in the area even more so.

37 is a bit early but if the Army was more restrained and given distractions the UK and France faced and Isolationist sentiment in the US and anti-colonial sentiment I suspect the IJN and IJA could have grabbed the French and Dutch colonies they wanted w/o much muss or fuss in 38. Particularity if they handled victory better sure brtize the locals but send the Europeans home etc.

[hellheaven1987]

Well more realistically would have been war with the Dutch their colonies seem have had the key resources Japan was slowly loosing to the US (real or potential embargoes) and they did not really have the capacity to deal with the IJN.

Yes but there was no guarantee that US would ban the resource exportation, so no reason to jump on Dutch East Indies; there were two Japanese strategical goals in SEA duirng 1941 - to seize resource US stopped providing, and to blockade China (mainly to seize northern Indochina and Burma).

[conon394]

Yes but there was no guarantee that US would ban the resource exportation, so no reason to jump on Dutch East Indies; there were two Japanese strategical goals in SEA duirng 1941 - to seize resource US stopped providing, and to blockade China (mainly to seize northern Indochina and Burma).

But why back a big ugly fight in China that pissed the US off over a quick and easy victory over the Dutch who like every other European power was increasing distracted by Germany. Plus while the US may not have put its embargoes in place, it policy on China was kinda obvious from the time Japan went full war. Just as its policy to leave the Philippines was.

I guess what I mean to say was a rational policy given that the US and UK really did comply with giving the IJN the upper hand in the Western Pacific would have been to rein in the army and take minor gains in China not trying at all of it - not enough to piss off the US. Than simply take what they wanted from the European colonial powers. That would have balanced their negotiations with the US. A US looking at a Japan with Dutch oil is not so likely to think its embargo will work for example.

[Lord Oda Nobunaga]

Because conquering European colonies would only give Japan certain resources. Japan wanted China since most of their exports went there, it was literally a bigger market for Japan than their own colonies in Korea and Taiwan (about 70% or more of Japan's market was in China). Due to the centralization that China was experiencing at that time the Japanese were worried that China would eventually cut them out of the deal, not only that but lose their own little enclaves across China to mob violence and Chinese military activity.

Other than a war in the Dutch East Indies being quicker I don't think it would necessarily help Japanese publicity. If the USA cares so much about what was happening in China why wouldn't they make a fuss about Japan invading some colonies, this probably would alert the European powers as well. But I would agree that of all the colonies the Dutch East Indies and French Indo-China would have been the better targets. As far as French Indo-China is concerned I don't think the French would miss it too much since they don't really use it much other than for trade with China and as a naval base in that area.

What I can't seem to understand is why Japan didn't use WW1 as an opportunity to invade China and grab some territory. Not all of it since that would likely lead to a major grind the likes of which the Beiyang army and the Nationalists were experiencing at that time against each other. But to seize the advantage of China being caught up in its own violence and no one being able to respond due to WW1 just makes sense. They could at least grab Manchuria and prepare for another wave of invasions if need be. Instead all they did was push their twenty demands on Yuan Shikai and that honestly took them nowhere.

[hellheaven1987]

Plus while the US may not have put its embargoes in place, it policy on China was kinda obvious from the time Japan went full war.

Yes, US policy towards China was clear - White House supported Nationalist China, but they did not want to get involve too deep too. In other words, harsh reactions towards Japan was not what White House wanted.

What I can't seem to understand is why Japan didn't use WW1 as an opportunity to invade China and grab some territory.

Well, Japanese felt 21 Demands was kindly enough; besides they already prepared to send their proxy Sun Yat-sen back to China anyway.

[Cyclops]

...
37 is a bit early but if the Army was more restrained and given distractions the UK and France faced and Isolationist sentiment in the US and anti-colonial sentiment I suspect the IJN and IJA could have grabbed the French and Dutch colonies they wanted w/o much muss or fuss in 38. Particularity if they handled victory better sure brtize the locals but send the Europeans home etc.

I can't see that, the UK and US had too great an economic interest in SEAsia to see the applecart overturned like that: I think opening hostilities before Hitler pulled the trigger just makes dealing with them easier.

The US seems to have been implacably hostile to Japan joining the Empire club and blocked it as much as possible. There's no way a military takeover would be accepted even if it was against third parties.

[PikeStance]

1937 is way too early. Japan would never had been so bold given what we know.

What I can't seem to understand is why Japan didn't use WW1 as an opportunity to invade China and grab some territory. Not all of it since that would likely lead to a major grind the likes of which the Beiyang army and the Nationalists were experiencing at that time against each other. But to seize the advantage of China being caught up in its own violence and no one being able to respond due to WW1 just makes sense. They could at least grab Manchuria and prepare for another wave of invasions if need be. Instead all they did was push their twenty demands on Yuan Shikai and that honestly took them nowhere.

The Japanese really miscalculated China resolve during WWII. Even when Japan did act, a China that looked primed for political & economic domination proved to be more resistant than the Japanese ever thought possible.