Re: President Biden's first term in office
LOL. Such a slick and quick reference. Nice work!Originally Posted by irontaino
Trump literally had Republican allies in Congress kill the latest bipartisan bill about immigration and border security, because Trump thought its passage would make Biden look good and more appealing to conservative leaning Independents, Republicans, and right-of-center Blue Dog Dems. "Trump killed a ‘slam dunk border bill:’ Manchin" (Source: News Nation). This move to kill a bill drafted by a fellow Republican doesn't really make many Republicans look all that serious or actually concerned about the border crossings being a real crisis.
Border security is a major issue, but it's not really going to affect the election like reproductive rights will. Reestablishing or defending existing abortion rights will be on the ballot in New York, Maryland, Florida, and Arizona (where they've already gathered enough signatures), and potentially several other states such as Montana and Nevada. Republican candidate for Senate Larry Hogan might even be in trouble in Maryland because of it, despite his reputation as a former governor and appeal to non-Republicans in that blueish state. Arizona is a hugely important swing state and it being a ballot issue there is going to churn out Dem leaning voters. Florida even couples its reproductive rights ballot with a marijuana one, much like reddish Ohio which recently passed ballots for ensuring abortion rights and decriminalization of marijuana.
Polls are useful in some cases, but they've been useless inaccurate garbage for national races in the USA for at least the past two general election cycles involving the presidency. That's because they only gauge how older rural people still possessing landline phones feel about any given issue, weighted heavily in that direction rather than serving as a realistic sample of the general population. Most young adults and middle aged people who own a cell phone don't pick up calls from random numbers that are not already saved contacts. This is due to the gargantuan amount of spam calls, scammers, and robo calls they would get as a result of picking up the phone for strangers. I literally delete at least one spam/scam text message a day on my cell phone, before promptly blocking the number that sent it.
The only polling you should trust is exit polling for elections, and given the amount of Nikki Haley primary voters across various states who explicitly said they were not voting for Trump in the general election, it doesn't seem like Biden should be the one who is overly concerned about his prospects. Biden along with the DNC have an enormous cash advantage from donors at the moment, while Trump is using his Super PAC (and potentially the RNC) as a piggy bank to pay for his legal expenses as he defends himself in multiple court cases. While it is grotesque and we need campaign finance reform, it's just a current reality that money rules and speaks louder than anything else in American politics, especially in driving desired voters to the polls or undesired voters away from the polls via targeted advertising. "Trump’s super PAC has helped foot his legal bills. That might end soon." (Source: Politico)
To me it seems bizarre that such ads work on anyone, that an advertisement on TV could literally sway your vote, but the statistics on the matter support this assumption with each and every election cycle. It's also a reminder that most people of average intelligence aren't that intelligent, or don't have time to understand politics beyond soundbites they hear on TV or in casual conversations in their echo chamber social circles.
Reply With Quote
