Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

[Lord Thesaurian]

Though the same thought is not afforded to Russia. What did you expect was going to happen? Russia was going to back down?

If we’re going to equate a sovereign country with Taiwan, it’s also worth noting the PRC has achieved more durable deterrence so far against both the US and any minority of Taiwanese who want independence with the threat of invasion than actually doing it. And conversely, US military buildup in the region has raised the stakes of and thereby delayed such a decision. The US has dumped similar amounts of military aid and sales on Taiwan the last several years as we had on Ukraine by the end of 2021. If Ukraine really is the same as Taiwan, Putin could have parked his armies on the border and plainly stated that admitting Ukraine to NATO would trigger an immediate regime change war. Obviously, it isn’t the same, because Ukraine is already a sovereign country and Moscow has its own hegemonic designs on the place beyond merely excluding the country from NATO.

I have yet to see any evidence the US strong-armed Ukraine into rejecting a peace deal they planned to accept, nor have I seen any articulation of how that was even supposed to have worked. The last iteration of these bad faith/betrayal accusations was that the US was unilaterally negotiating an end to the conflict with Russia behind closed doors. Critics of western policy should make up their mind about what the omnipotent invisible hand of America is trying to achieve here.

[Love Mountain]

Does your point show higher moral ground?
Let's not the pretend the other side of the coin doesn't exist, where it is Russia making a deliberate calculation of how many Ukranians (and Russian) lives are disposable to weaken NATO and the West in general.

Russia is interested in integrating Ukraine into Russia's sphere of influence in the long-term. Which necesssitates certain commitments.

If we’re going to equate a sovereign country with Taiwan, it’s also worth noting the PRC has achieved more durable deterrence so far against both the US and any minority of Taiwanese who want independence with the threat of invasion than actually doing it. And conversely, US military buildup in the region has raised the stakes of and thereby delayed such a decision. The US has dumped similar amounts of military aid and sales on Taiwan the last several years as we had on Ukraine by the end of 2021. If Ukraine really is the same as Taiwan, Putin could have parked his armies on the border and plainly stated that admitting Ukraine to NATO would trigger an immediate regime change war. Obviously, it isn’t the same, because Ukraine is already a sovereign country and Moscow has its own hegemonic designs on the place beyond merely excluding the country from NATO.

I have yet to see any evidence the US strong-armed Ukraine into rejecting a peace deal they planned to accept, nor have I seen any articulation of how that was even supposed to have worked. The last iteration of these bad faith/betrayal accusations was that the US was unilaterally negotiating an end to the conflict with Russia behind closed doors. Critics of western policy should make up their mind about what the omnipotent invisible hand of America is trying to achieve here.

Your reuter link makes no sense, I've already posted relevant materials from the relevant parties in an earlier post.

As for Taiwan, you are correct. Things are not the same. Taiwan is not a sovereign country and has no such diplomatic status in most capitals around the world. Additionally, China is a significantly tougher opponent than Russia, especially in the naval domain. More importantly, United States is also perfectly satisfied with the status quo. What United States is upset with, is the trajectory in the balance of power, not the current situation.

[fkizz]

Russia is interested in integrating Ukraine into Russia's sphere of influence in the long-term. Which necesssitates certain commitments.

Russia is interested in weakening NATO and the West regardless of Ukraine.
As for Ukraine, the average Ukranian survey was typically pro-Russian until a certain bold Kremlin decision. That choice came from the Kremlin, just as the choice that made Ukraine more pro-Russian also came from the Kremlin. It was in their hands all this time.
The fact that it needed to blame Nato for this shows bad state stewardship.
Its more convenient to toss blame of screwups outside.

An iconic Russian manual says "The sucess of our enemy is most often result of our mistakes". Says this for a reason.

[Love Mountain]

Russia is interested in weakening NATO and the West regardless of Ukraine.

Yes, all countries are interested in security.

As for Ukraine, the average Ukranian survey was typically pro-Russian until a certain bold Kremlin decision. That choice came from the Kremlin, just as the choice that made Ukraine more pro-Russian also came from the Kremlin. It was in their hands all this time.
The fact that it needed to blame Nato for this shows bad state stewardship.
Its more convenient to toss blame of screwups outside.

An iconic Russian manual says "The sucess of our enemy is most often result of our mistakes". Says this for a reason.

Lol.

Russia was always going to invade Ukraine if it ever entertained the idea of joinining NATO.

But if we are going to talk about "sovereignty" or whatever. Ukraine is a sovereign country who has security interests. Those security interests clash with Russia's. Russia made their demands and when diplomacy ended, diplomacy by other means took over. So if you want to prance around "sovereign" countries and how they have independence or whatever, than there is nobody to blame except Russian and Ukraine. They couldn't come to an agreement peacefully, so they are going to come to an agreement not-so-peacefully.

On the balance, seeing as how there is no genocidal, ethnic goals in this war, neither side is particularly good or evil.

[fkizz]

But if we are going to talk about "sovereignty" or whatever. Ukraine is a sovereign country who has security interests. Those security interests clash with Russia's. Russia made their demands and when diplomacy ended, diplomacy by other means took over. So if you want to prance around "sovereign" countries and how they have independence or whatever, than there is nobody to blame except Russian and Ukraine. They couldn't come to an agreement peacefully, so they are going to come to an agreement not-so-peacefully.

Well I can agree with almost all of that. Just that (assuming past decades) Russia has more might to make right than Ukraine does, and therefore has a more leveraged negociating position to bring to the diplomatic table than Ukraine could bring. Russia having a better ability to influence negociating outcomes also means more accountability weight on the end result.

Russia was always going to invade Ukraine if it ever entertained the idea of joinining NATO.

I think you missed what I meant. I meant to say that before a certain bold decision at Kremlin, surveys and polling displayed a Western-sceptic Ukranian population turning more to the East. After the certain bold Kremlin decision this view started to change among the populace very fast.
Point being, Kremlin for Ukraine in particular always had the thing in their fingertips, made a decision that turned Western-scepticism into Kremlin-scepticism, and now no one wants to be the internally responsible, or the one delivering bad news, so blaming the outside hostile fella is always easier for short/medium term, and to be fair, the narrative works. However, long term, no guarantees.

[Stario]

Taiwan is not a sovereign country and has no such diplomatic status in most capitals around the world

So if "most capitals around the world" tomorrow decided Ukraine is not a "sovereign country" you will be good w Russia pummelling Ukraine? The only reason you support Ukraike is because "most capitals around the world" recognise its sovereignty?!

[conon394]

Looks like the so called Russia hording of missiles is over. That said the first wave of a large attacks seems rather random. I was expecting a more focused attempt at critical power and similar infrastructure.

Also talk is heating up that the US might be pushing to not just freeze but seize and hand over Russian state assets to Ukraine. That would be interesting step indeed.

Here is the most in depth argument I have seen for why the US at least could do it with out any new legislation - long read

https://rdi.org/wp-content/uploads/2...mpressed-1.pdf

[AqD]

It has to be voted on, in (afaik) all parliaments of existing members. The decision simply isn't popular enough.

I don't see why we can't just help Ukraine to meet the standard.

We're not safe until the entire CSTO except Russia join NATO and EU or other alliances of ours.

[Stario]

Also talk is heating up that the US might be pushing to not just freeze but seize and hand over Russian state assets to Ukraine. That would be interesting step...

I mean they could do that, wouldn't run it past murica's politiks. One of the most corrupt systems in the world; murica is never about improving itself but to make others worser off and therefore improve your situation by default - sice everyone else is now worse off.
Would probably hurt murica in the long run as far as foreign investor trust goes too...
Could even open the flood gate for others not paying back US owned debt/seize US state assets etc...

[conon394]

I mean they could do that, wouldn't run it past murica's politiks. One of the most corrupt systems in the world; murica is never about improving itself but to make others worser off and therefore improve your situation by default - sice everyone else is now worse off.

Err that is rather ironic in a thread about Russia invasion of Ukraine

Would probably hurt murica in the long run as far as foreign investor trust goes too...

Would it? We are talking about Russian state assets not individual foreign investment. But hey sure go invest in opaque China with its mostly made up economic numbers of oh so health Argentina or Venezuela

Could even open the flood gate for others not paying back US owned debt/seize US state assets etc...

That did no happen after the US did much the same to Iraq after the gulf war.

[conon394]

Well maybe not on the missiles next day is a only chump change. Again targeting is baffling - seems just random terror attacks that have no persistent and continuing impact on key infrastructure or air defense.

-----

@Stario

A few more thoughts on the potential of seizing Russian state assets.

I think it is fair to say the post WW2 order is fraying and in fact Russia China and BRICS say want it to fray. China is doubling down on exporting its way out of economic issues for example. And one way or another the US, Japan, Turkey, and India have been erecting barriers artfully in most cases so as not bluntly violate the WTO against Chineses exports in key sectors. Oddly Enough the EU seems the last hold out still trying to defend the WTO model and convince China to work inside instead abusing it. For over a decade or more countries have been repatriating their gold and sacrificing the benefits of having it in NY or London. Although the down side of China's counter to the IMF and world bank and Belt and road investment is more apparent now, and China's funding for the effort is sputtering of late - they remain a thing. Also of course there is the ever present mostly hot talk about the Yuan becoming a reserve/trading currency of note.

In the end I can't see much risk the US takes in acting and transferring is frozen Russian assets to Ukraine. After all Russia war in Ukraine if successful certainly topples another bit of International order by enshrining the right to simply annex what you want and can enforce on a sovereign country. The US action would in contrast be far less radical than the one Russia is seeking to impose militarily.

[Stario]

...In the end I can't see much risk the US takes in acting and transferring is frozen Russian assets to Ukraine. After all Russia war in Ukraine if successful certainly topples another bit of International order by enshrining the right to simply annex what you want and can enforce on a sovereign country. The US action would in contrast be far less radical than the one Russia is seeking to impose militarily.

I mean sure trade war, we have seen a lot of that over the last year. In response Russia can take its US assets and/or refuse to pay its US owned debt indefinitely as compensation, more sanctions from both sides as a response etc...
The problem is there are no 'goods guys' here as far as I see it. I am glad USA and NATO is no longer world police and I hate the whole leftist woke movement degenerating western culture. But I don't want the title of "world police" going to BRICS either. I believe once Russia wins the war against Ukraine, CCP will have the confidence to go after Taiwan; this will really change the new world order - but it will probably not be for the better.

[Ludicus]

The Biden Administration Is Quietly Shifting Its Strategy in Ukraine-Politico

The administration official told POLITICO Magazine this week that much of this strategic shift to defense is aimed at shoring up Ukraine’s position in any future negotiation...A shift to defense could buy Ukraine the time it needs to eventually force Putin into an acceptable compromise.

A perfect somersault in terms of expectations,
Ukraine Doesn't Need All Its Territory to Defeat Putin-New York Times

…But if Mr. Putin turns out to be serious, Ukraine should not pass up an opportunity to end the bloodshed. Recovered territory is not the only measure of victory in this war…regaining territory is the wrong way to imagine the best outcome. True victory for Ukraine is to rise from the hell of the war as a strong, independent, prosperous and secure state.

[Love Mountain]

I think you missed what I meant. I meant to say that before a certain bold decision at Kremlin, surveys and polling displayed a Western-sceptic Ukranian population turning more to the East. After the certain bold Kremlin decision this view started to change among the populace very fast.
Point being, Kremlin for Ukraine in particular always had the thing in their fingertips, made a decision that turned Western-scepticism into Kremlin-scepticism, and now no one wants to be the internally responsible, or the one delivering bad news, so blaming the outside hostile fella is always easier for short/medium term, and to be fair, the narrative works. However, long term, no guarantees.

That's really not at all what happened. In the 2019 election the most pro-Russian candidate, Boyko, never polled above 10%.

Looks like the so called Russia hording of missiles is over. That said the first wave of a large attacks seems rather random. I was expecting a more focused attempt at critical power and similar infrastructure.

No, you just don't know. It's okay to admit that. There has been very limited BDA or other similar videos. Ukraine has made it illegal to post such videos (sensible). To date, we have confirmed targets of a factory, a thermal plant, several energy facilities, and areas where military personnel were spotted. Like an SBU officer in one of the hotels.



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So if "most capitals around the world" tomorrow decided Ukraine is not a "sovereign country" you will be good w Russia pummelling Ukraine? The only reason you support Ukraike is because "most capitals around the world" recognise its sovereignty?!

The reason I support Ukraine is because I am anti-war. Regular people shouldn't die for rich men's wars. As far as I'm concerned, Russia is at fault because they are the aggressor and they had alternatives to invasion. That doesn't mean I don't find Western promises and leading on to Ukraine to be disgusting, or that I find Russia's decision-making to be generally rational and not genocidal.

In similar vein, if China invades Taiwan, I will blame the aggressor, China. That does not mean that I will fail to recognize either the foolishness of Taiwan's political leadership, or the irresponsible brinksmanship and gamesmanship of United States and their allies. Or that I will fail to find those actions by those actors to be equally gross.

War is a horrible thing and should almost always be avoided.

=============================================

Well maybe not on the missiles next day is a only chump change. Again targeting is baffling - seems just random terror attacks that have no persistent and continuing impact on key infrastructure or air defense.

I understand this is an off-the-cuff statement, but you really should've learned by now to be more careful with your statements. You're contributing to the noise and inaccuracy of the modern information environment.

[conon394]

I understand this is an off-the-cuff statement, but you really should've learned by now to be more careful with your statements. You're contributing to the noise and inaccuracy of the modern information environment.

Err what?

How.

I can see no pattern in Russian missile and drone attacks that amounts other than what I said. I will admit that interceptions (or attempted ones) create duel random drop downs of of flying junk so create a lot a noise in trying to understand what is going on. But so far Russia has not since last winter seemed to have much of any particular strategy carrierid out with any consistency. I guess aside from possibly on the slowest pace possible make Ukrainians use up their missiles since its air force can't do SEAD.

No, you just don't know. It's okay to admit that. There has been very limited BDA or other similar videos. Ukraine has made it illegal to post such videos (sensible). To date, we have confirmed targets of a factory, a thermal plant, several energy facilities, and areas where military personnel were spotted. Like an SBU officer in one of the hotels.

Ahh yes the Ukrainians are just so cunning they are hiding stuff in seemingly innocuous targets and or suppressing information... I suppose they got lessons from Hamas right? Big day was heavily focused on Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhya but did not put the lights out or attack any production or strategic resource I can find that would effect the the war.

In similar vein, if China invades Taiwan, I will blame the aggressor, China. That does not mean that I will fail to recognize either the foolishness of Taiwan's political leadership, or the irresponsible brinksmanship and gamesmanship of United States and their allies. Or that I will fail to find those actions by those actors to be equally gross.

I am hard pressed to see any foolishness by Taiwanese leadership, nor any brinkmanship by the US.

also since you decided to scold me...

Simplified Western Philosophy

Plato is in fact quite possibly the worst philosopher in western civilization - had he become a play writer as he thought about or had more stones and been involved in the government of the thirty tyrants and ended up executed the west would be really far better off.

[Love Mountain]

Err what?

How.

I can see no pattern in Russian missile and drone attacks that amounts other than what I said.

Because there is a pattern. There are military targets being targeted.

Thermal Plant in Kurakhove. Straokanstotinov Airfield. IRIS-T system in Kherson. Lviv tank facotry. Depots in Kiev.

The information is out there if you look and prase carefully, but if you don't know just say you don't know.

Ahh yes the Ukrainians re just so cunning they are hiding stuff and or suppressing information... I suppose they got lessons from Hamas right?

Are you saying that Ukraine should let people publish videos of air strikes on Instagram and Telegram as they've been doing? Essentially doing BDA for Russians?

I am hard pressed to see any foolishness by Taiwanese leadership, nor any brinkmanship by the US.

Trying to constantly move the Overton window towards war and independence is retarded. Sorry, but it doesn't take a genius to see how outmatched ROC is.

[conon394]

Trying to constantly move the Overton window towards war and independence is retarded. Sorry, but it doesn't take a genius to see how outmatched ROC is.

Not really now on you latter point unless I believe Chinese mIltary BS , much like their made up GDP which I also don't believe in. But I also see no reson why what is not a solid democracy should have little desire to join a what is a totalitarian state on a crap trajectory.

Because there is a pattern. There are military targets being targeted.

Thermal Plant in Kurakhove. Straokanstotinov Airfield. IRIS-T system in Kherson. Lviv tank facotry. Depots in Kiev.

The information is out there if you look and prase carefully, but if you don't know just say you don't know.

Sure there is some sporadic targeting of nominally important locations. But overall its drowned out by both lack of consistancy and a wide swath of what looks like tossing stuff at the wall randomly.

Are you saying that Ukraine should let people publish videos of air strikes on Instagram and Telegram as they've been doing? Essentially doing BDA for Russians?

No. what I am saying is the Russian missile drone campaign is desultory and and Ukraine is not some super magic pink pony unicorn super power to make stuff up. Russia loft at some targets I agree but as much as not after two years its clear more often at nothing or with no sustained results.

[Love Mountain]

Not really now on you latter point unless I believe Chinese mIltary BS , much like their made up GDP which I also don't believe in. But I also see no reson why what is not a solid democracy should have little desire to join a what is a totalitarian state on a crap trajectory.

And why do you believe that? Because that's what some pundit randomly told you?

There is also a difference between a "solid democracy" not joining China, and that "solid democracy" declaring its independence. Now I'm not even gonna go into the mental gymnastics of how people justify Taiwan's independence, but suffice to say, I don't agree with starting a war when the current status quo has been working well until 2016.

Sure there is some sporadic targeting of nominally important locations. But overall its drowned out by both lack of consistancy and a wide swath of what looks like tossing stuff at the wall randomly.

You're completely pulling this out of your ass. You don't know what the other targets were. I don't know all of their targets. So no, you can't make a statement on "lack of consistency" when you don't even know where a portion of these missiles landed due to operational security.

No. what I am saying is the Russian missile drone campaign is desultory and and Ukraine is not some super magic pink pony unicorn super power to make stuff up. Russia loft at some targets I agree but as much as not after two years its clear more often at nothing or with no sustained results.

Ukraine does in fact make up all the time. Like their daily air defense resports which occasionally claims that they shot down 120% of missiles fired by Russians.

As for your other statements, that's just you making stuff up. The last winter campaign did have sustained results. It greatly degraded Ukraine's electricity generation, military production, and other capabilities. At some point Ukraine had to resort to pulling diesel locomotives from the reserve.

I mean this is just annoying and exactly the kind of thing I'm talking about.

If you keep saying that Russia's missile campaign is ineffective, or that they are running out of missiles, why the are we worried about Ukraine anyway? This is so retarded, you're not helping Ukraine by downplaying the Russian threat or effectiveness. This is exactly the madness that Kofman and his Ukrainian guest discussed in the last episode of The Russian Contingency. Stop saying that the Russians are dumb, or they can't fight, or that their actions don't make sense, or blah blah blah. Stop making up.

Smart Ukrainians who are trying to win the war fully acknowledge Russia as a competent and dangerous opponent who has considerable advantages over them. Ukraine has to resort to increasingly desperate measures to continue staying in the fight.

But nope. Here's conon with his brillaint statement that "Oh geez, Russian missiles are causing lots of civvie deaths but they don't seem to make much military sense."

Yeah, I'm sure that's a lot of comfort to General Zaluzhny who probably just saw a dozen of his ammo depots go up in ing smoke when he is already short on artillery shells. Great ing analysis.

[Love Mountain]

Oh hey look.



I guess Russia's strikes aren't so random after all. Who could've possibly predicted that?

[conon394]

And why do you believe that? Because that's what some pundit randomly told you?

I find it interesting your defense of any view but your own is claiming somebody is simply listening to a pundit.

There is also a difference between a "solid democracy" not joining China, and that "solid democracy" declaring its independence. Now I'm not even gonna go into the mental gymnastics of how people justify Taiwan's independence, but suffice to say, I don't agree with starting a war when the current status quo has been working well until 2016.

Has it. Taiwan's non status certainly hurts it. It also leaves it open to conquest by a state it clearly does not not want be part of.

You're completely pulling this out of your ass. You don't know what the other targets were. I don't know all of their targets. So no, you can't make a statement on "lack of consistency" when you don't even know where a portion of these missiles landed due to operational security.

All of that may be true. But the fact remains the supposed second best military on the planet is able to roll out a missile and drone campaign that cans achieve a decisive impact that actually moves the needle n the battlefield and is partially dependent on its f-ing Iran.

Ukraine does in fact make up all the time. Like their daily air defense resports which occasionally claims that they shot down 120% of missiles fired by Russians.

As for your other statements, that's just you making stuff up. The last winter campaign did have sustained results. It greatly degraded Ukraine's electricity generation, military production, and other capabilities. At some point Ukraine had to resort to pulling diesel locomotives from the reserve.

I mean this is just annoying and exactly the kind of thing I'm talking about.

And yet it stopped and Ukraine and its allies got a summer to to work on dealing with the attack.

If you keep saying that Russia's missile campaign is ineffective, or that they are running out of missiles, why the are we worried about Ukraine anyway? This is so retarded, you're not helping Ukraine by downplaying the Russian threat or effectiveness. This is exactly the madness that Kofman and his Ukrainian guest discussed in the last episode of The Russian Contingency. Stop saying that the Russians are dumb, or they can't fight, or that their actions don't make sense, or blah blah blah. Stop making up.

Err it a proxy war. I never said Ukrain had a hope to win by itself any more than I would say North Veietnam could win by itself do be a fool.

But nope. Here's conon with his brillaint statement that "Oh geez, Russian missiles are causing lots of civvie deaths but they don't seem to make much military sense."

Yeah, I'm sure that's a lot of comfort to General Zaluzhny who probably just saw a dozen of his ammo depots go up in ing smoke when he is already short on artillery shells. Great ing analysis.

I thought you were arguing we had no real BDA? but now you have but not I - well than here is the great Love Mountain with his third eye to cut through the misinformation...

In any case anyone who cites Plato as a great philosopher losses a notch in my book. Also really what 5 swear emojis come on artful vocabulary would communicate the same.