Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

[Ludicus]

The 'we win, they lose' mentality is alive and well in in Northern Europe.

Three Baltic foreign ministers gathered earlier this week to make the case for embracing Ukraine’s maximalist war aims and pursuing a total defeat of Russia.
Yet many of these talking points are detached from actual reality…
(…) Washington and Kyiv should pursue a diplomatic path to preserve Ukraine’s sovereignty while avoiding a NATO-Russia conflict. There remain reasons for Russia to come to the negotiating table, given that Moscow wants to establish a “demilitarized zone,” de facto Western acquiescence to Russian control of Crimea and the Donbas, and a legitimate role to play in Europe’s security order. However, Kyiv and its allies should pursue this path urgently, as Ukraine’s leverage will inevitably decrease over time

These young political leaders are nostalgic for their teenage years, when they must have played too many war games. It's a paranoid mentality that suits arms manufacturers, who have already increased the price of ammo tenfold since the beginning of the conflict. The willingness of the military industrial complex to sacrifice itself to favor the well-being of our Western countries has not gone unnoticed. There are industrialized countries that are countries, are companies. "Killing them softy" reference.
Great patriots, Ukraine Conflict Escalates Ammo Prices Tenfold

Claesson described the situation as "dramatic," highlighting a tenfold increase in ammo prices since the onset of the Ukraine conflict. This surge is attributed to the urgent and vast Western support for Ukraine

[Gaius Baltar]

I want to change my vote, whom do I contact?

[conon394]

Did you forget the sarcasm signal for that first quote Ludicus?

A Legitimate role to play in Europe's security order? What after what the EU assures Russia it has the unilateral right to carve up and annex any country it likes. Maybe you should wait till after formally annexes Transnistria and maybe all of Moldova if Putin wants. A little gap there does Russia have to pay Ukraine reparations? Or since Putin says this a just a need war screw them. Russia's new policy on North Korea really says Russia is responsible. But I sure its really justified because the Kim hermit state is the victim of the US and its puppet the ROK and really it would have best all around back in the day if the US and walk away and let the North Win - shorten the war and all that right?

I been through the shell prices before on this tread you should be careful of the un sourced numbers tossed around they are typically a number of shell averaged into an order, not some actual unit price and often enough I seen reports wrap in every kind of shell from a the most simple 155mm shells to an order hat includes Excalibur and RAP rounds or other special shells and not net out the expensive ones. Or points back to small batch replacement orders from years ago where of the Unit price is inflated.

That said we a talking a major war where both sides are hoovering up ammo from everywhere and production is struggling to increase prices are going to rise. You want to run three shifts you pay overtime, or more works you more resources and power etc. Build a new facility that don't fall off trees for free.

Do actually try and follow the links chains in your articles at all. I mean really the Bullion exchange and the ammo link is

https://bullionexchanges.com/box-of-...tle-text-block

4 round box of 12 gauge actual silver shells for $162. Really that is the the link for the ammo cost? Ammo.com tells me I can buy 250 Remington 12 gauge rounds that are comparable to Mil Spec for $89.99. I will admit something more exotic like a sabot slug is $28 for 5. But shotguns are of fairly limited use in the military the obvious links should be to current and pre war prices for rifle ammunition which should be easy to find.

Also from Reuters re 155mm ammo

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...0market%20said.

"Demand from the Ukraine war has driven up prices to $2,800-3,200 per round from $700-$1,200 beforehand, two sources familiar with the market said."

That is not tenfold. The specific case cited is Sweden. Its important to note NATO standard is in the breech (pun intended) a bit more of a guideline. The more high tech the gun system the more picky it is for the ammo it was design for the Archer was not exactly a mass market weapon Sweden having built only 48 I doubt Sweden was sitting a mass of capacity and furloughed workers to make what shells it is matched to.

[AqD]

The 'we win, they lose' mentality is alive and well in in Northern Europe.


These young political leaders are nostalgic for their teenage years, when they must have played too many war games. It's a paranoid mentality that suits arms manufacturers, who have already increased the price of ammo tenfold since the beginning of the conflict. The willingness of the military industrial complex to sacrifice itself to favor the well-being of our Western countries has not gone unnoticed. There are industrialized countries that are countries, are companies. "Killing them softy" reference.
Great patriots, Ukraine Conflict Escalates Ammo Prices Tenfold

Aren't you also paranoid in thinking the tenfold ammo price would have any impact on us, the richest countries in the world?

Do you not understand what we'd gain when Russia is utterly defeated, its military gone, its reputation wiped and the ability to project any power overseas is forever lost? But no, you chose to worry about our ammo cost! Perhaps you're running out of excuses as hardliners are finally winning public opinions.

[Love Mountain]

Aren't you also paranoid in thinking the tenfold ammo price would have any impact on us, the richest countries in the world?

Do you not understand what we'd gain when Russia is utterly defeated, its military gone, its reputation wiped and the ability to project any power overseas is forever lost? But no, you chose to worry about our ammo cost! Perhaps you're running out of excuses as hardliners are finally winning public opinions.

You wouldn't gain anything and that's part of the problem...

But go ahead. What are some of the tangible benefits the average European taxpayer would get?

[Coughdrop addict]

You wouldn't gain anything and that's part of the problem...

But go ahead. What are some of the tangible benefits the average European taxpayer would get?

The better question to ask is what wouldn't they gain?

Russia has been a hostile threat to the rest of the world for it's entire existence, with periods of active war on anyone within reach only punctuated by periods of cold war.

If it were gone, Europe would not have to worry that the imperialistic fascist dictatorship on their borders is going to invade their countries, rape their children, murder anyone they can catch, and enslave the survivors.

[mishkin]

The better question to ask is what wouldn't they gain?

Russia has been a hostile threat to the rest of the world for it's entire existence, with periods of active war on anyone within reach only punctuated by periods of cold war.

If it were gone, Europe would not have to worry that the imperialistic fascist dictatorship on their borders is going to invade their countries, rape their children, murder anyone they can catch, and enslave the survivors.

NATO has always been there, it seems that now stronger than ever, I understand the fear of Putin's neighbors but it seems to me that you are exaggerating a lot. On the other hand, now do Murica.

[Alastor]

The better question to ask is what wouldn't they gain?

Russia has been a hostile threat to the rest of the world for it's entire existence, with periods of active war on anyone within reach only punctuated by periods of cold war.

If it were gone, Europe would not have to worry that the imperialistic fascist dictatorship on their borders is going to invade their countries, rape their children, murder anyone they can catch, and enslave the survivors.

No, that's not the better question. That's not even a question. It's a pathetic deflection followed by a litany of Russophobic nonsense.

As love mountain said, we'd gain nothing and that's (part of) the problem. This war is a geopolitical and economic disaster for the EU and has been from the get-go. Ever since Nuland uttered the by now famous " the EU" the reality of this conflict for Europe has been obvious to anyone not wearing Russophobic blinders. Unfortunately, it seems too many people do.

[conon394]

No, that's not the better question. That's not even a question. It's a pathetic deflection followed by a litany of Russophobic nonsense.

As love mountain said, we'd gain nothing and that's (part of) the problem. This war is a geopolitical and economic disaster for the EU and has been from the get-go. Ever since Nuland uttered the by now famous " the EU" the reality of this conflict for Europe has been obvious to anyone not wearing Russophobic blinders. Unfortunately, it seems too many people do.

"This war is a geopolitical and economic disaster for the EU"

Not sure I see that but I suppose you would argue I am wearing anti Russian glasses on.

Painful perhaps but not a disaster. What the myth of cheap Russian natural gas? Realistically take against COVID supply shock issues, than the EU's own self inflicted wounds - Brexit, unified monetary policy w/o unified financial policy (which lead to the financial crisis a while back) , lack of sufficient immigration over all. What maybe the loss Russian oligarch money driving property values? Access to the vast market of Moscow and St Petersburg and empire of well third world citizens in the hinterlands not much bigger than the economy of Mexico? Also gotta say Unlike Japan India and the US amongst other the EU continues to so far to not be trying to get away from the blunder of letting China in the WTO at least in some area and leaving itself open to what in many cases is out right subsidized Chinese dumping.

I might also add as self inflicted in all its time the EU has never managed a coherent and coordinated defense policy and more importantly a document policy. I sure you can try and blame the US but the reality even at low around 2% GDP spend every EU count has tended to treat its military as a local jobs program first and foremost. Example The US has one self propelled artillery system not really top tier anymore but still just the one and the current iteration has substantial commonality with the Bradley. How many SP howitzers is the EU building in small batches (and I toss the UK here). fast count of the top my head is seven with at least two major non EU purchase pools. That is a self inflicted wound.

[Alastor]

Not sure I see that but I suppose you would argue I am wearing anti Russian glasses on.

Painful perhaps but not a disaster. What the myth of cheap Russian natural gas? Realistically take against COVID supply shock issues, than the EU's own self inflicted wounds - Brexit, unified monetary policy w/o unified financial policy (which lead to the financial crisis a while back) , lack of sufficient immigration over all. What maybe the loss Russian oligarch money driving property values? Access to the vast market of Moscow and St Petersburg and empire of well third world citizens in the hinterlands not much bigger than the economy of Mexico? Also gotta say Unlike Japan India and the US amongst other the EU continues to so far to not be trying to get away from the blunder of letting China in the WTO at least in some area and leaving itself open to what in many cases is out right subsidized Chinese dumping.

Certainly and rather evidently so.

You speak of myths but all that is spin and no more. The myth of cheap Russian gas was a reality up until this war for example. Germany is deindustrialising fast and its economy is down the , is that a myth too? Self-inflicted wounds you say and attribute everything to that. Well there is no shortage of self-inflicted wounds, I have often said that our politicians in Europe are not worth a dime in recent years, but this war and following the US in it is one such self-inflicted wound too. A big one. As for China and the WTO, America can fight that war alone as far as I am concerned. Europe needs to leave the shadow of the US and start looking out for itself.

[conon394]

You speak of myths but all that is spin and no more. The myth of cheap Russian gas was a reality up until this war for example.

No it was not. The older Russian feels were cheap at the product end but the pricing mechanisms used meant Europe was not getting cheap gas in any comparative sense. in reality lack of LNG infrastructure actually tied tied Europe to lack of supply competition. But also the industrial angle is double myth before the boom in US LGN terminals across 20 or 30 years NG was easy far less expensive in the US than supposedly cheap Russian gas in the EU but somehow US industry was profoundly more competitive than German industry. Also note the NG from the new arctic feilds in Russia that would have come from in via NS 2 was not going to be cheap anymore.

Europe needs to leave the shadow of the US and start looking out for itself.

Err but that was point the China market is a mirage and right now Europe is not looking out for itself for example they are setting themselves up for China to dump their EVs on.

edit:

Note a look a NG prices

https://thesoundingline.com/the-myth...n-natural-gas/

[Alastor]

No it was not. The older Russian feels were cheap at the product end but the pricing mechanisms used meant Europe was not getting cheap gas in any comparative sense. in reality lack of LNG infrastructure actually tied tied Europe to lack of supply competition. But also the industrial angle is double myth before the boom in US LGN terminals across 20 or 30 years NG was easy far less expensive in the US than supposedly cheap Russian gas in the EU but somehow US industry was profoundly more competitive than German industry. Also note the NG from the new arctic feilds in Russia that would have come from in via NS 2 was not going to be cheap anymore.

It was not a reality? So there wasn't cheap gas coming in from Russia to Europe. So it's a myth that Europe was forced to find more expensive alternatives in a rapid and highly costly manner as the confrontation with Russia begun to look increasingly likely. I don't think so, here is a nice graph:
https://ember-climate.org/data/data-...-power-prices/
As for the US having cheaper energy, well yes, obviously. The US is a major energy producer, the EU is not.

Err but that was point the China market is a mirage and right now Europe is not looking out for itself for example they are setting themselves up for China to dump their EVs on.

As Borell said the EU owed it's economic success to cheap energy from Russia and the Chinese market. Both of which are now problematic and in a largely self-inflicted manner no less. You are advocating for protectionism here rather than free trade which I find in itself interesting. As long as we were powerful and influential and just more advanced and competitive than the rest free trade was great. Now, it's not anymore, this alone is evidence of our tremendous decline.

[Coughdrop addict]

No, that's not the better question. That's not even a question. It's a pathetic deflection followed by a litany of Russophobic nonsense.

As love mountain said, we'd gain nothing and that's (part of) the problem. This war is a geopolitical and economic disaster for the EU and has been from the get-go. Ever since Nuland uttered the by now famous " the EU" the reality of this conflict for Europe has been obvious to anyone not wearing Russophobic blinders. Unfortunately, it seems too many people do.

So your position is that all of the mass graves, mass rapes, destroyed cities, kidnapped children, forced labor, all of it is just "Russophobia" correct?

[mishkin]

So your position is that all of the mass graves, mass rapes, destroyed cities, kidnapped children, forced labor, all of it is just "Russophobia" correct?

It is an authoritarian state showing the worst of himself (even sending convicts) in a quasi-fratricidal war. If you want to play at describing states/populations in a generic and crude way we can start now, but I would be accused of whataboutism.

[Alastor]

So your position is that all of the mass graves, mass rapes, destroyed cities, kidnapped children, forced labor, all of it is just "Russophobia" correct?

All of them right? including those in Iraq, in Vietnam, in Gaza, in all those places in Africa ravaged by western colonialism. All of them? Yes, when you reduce Russia and Russians to a vile horde that has been a "threat to the rest of the world for its entire existence" as you put it, responsible for all the mass graves, rapes etc ever that is the definition of Russophobia. And this post of yours here, well that's Russophobia squared.

[StarDreamer]

All of them right? including those in Iraq, in Vietnam, in Gaza, in all those places in Africa ravaged by western colonialism. All of them? Yes, when you reduce Russia and Russians to a vile horde that has been a "threat to the rest of the world for its entire existence" as you put it, responsible for all the mass graves, rapes etc ever that is the definition of Russophobia. And this post of yours here, well that's Russophobia squared.

Oh woe to the Russians, always vilified by all those smaller neighbours the imperilistic Russiand have so benevolently wanted to include in their Russian world(as slaves).

Oh woe to the Islamist, clearly a small minority religion. Always vilified by those that they have so benevolently wanted to include in their Islamists world(as slaves).

It is likely the word phobia now means, "dislike of infringement into others lives by s who mostly want to erase anything that isn't their culture" and not irrational fear. Go figure.

[Alastor]

Oh woe to the Russians, always vilified by all those smaller neighbours the imperilistic Russiand have so benevolently wanted to include in their Russian world(as slaves)

I don't know about always and I didn't speak about always. I know about coughdrop's comments and I spoke about coughdrop's comments. Your sad attempts to ridicule with overblown generalisations holds no water when the argument is sound and the posts visible to everyone. Besides, you are engaging in Russophobia yourself when you blatantly call the Russians slavemongers. Then again, what else is new.

[nhytgbvfeco2]

Russophobia is not a thing Alastor, no matter how hard you pretend that it is. Russia is a fascist state that seeks to expand its borders and enslave others, it's primary export is pain and misery, there's nothing phobic about opposing it.

[Alastor]

Russophobia is not a thing Alastor, no matter how hard you pretend that it is. Russia is a fascist state that seeks to expand its borders and enslave others, it's primary export is pain and misery, there's nothing phobic about opposing it.

For sth that supposedly doesn't exist, posts like this sure do a great job exhibiting it.

[reavertm]

For sth that supposedly doesn't exist, posts like this sure do a great job exhibiting it.

It's Russorealism. Phobia is irrational fear. Check dictionary for definition if you have any doubts.