Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

[Alastor]

It is relatively new narrative in russian propaganda btw. They didn't have problem with NATO and new members of NATO in two first Putins terms at all. He himself praised NATO in 2002, all that about "NATOs deception" and so called "broken promises about nonexpansion" was invented after invasion to Georgia. Even more, Putin himself used to say he has no problem with Ukraine joining NATO, that Russia will respect such decision, if it comes to pass.
Ofc russian propaganda never recall those words anymore. NATO is the same - its Russia which changed since then.

You are picking and choosing facts/events to create certain impressions, so this comes across as a rather disingenuous comment.


When did Putin praise NATO, or say it's ok if Ukraine joined? 20sth years ago? When he was trying to get Russia to join NATO too? And when do you say the Russians don't mention that, how do you mean that exactly? Putin himself openly acknowledged he wanted an alliance fairly recently. That he thought that Russia and the US can leave behind the enmity of the Cold War era and foster better relations going ahead. He also added that he was rebuffed and was eventaully proven naïve to have trusted in the goodwill of the west. So Putin, and by extension Russia, changed his mind about NATO, yes he sure did, as soon as he realised that NATO, as you put it, hadn't changed, at least in this specific regard, but remained the same anti-Russian organisation it always was and as such a threat. In fact a greater threat now, because in some other ways NATO did change, a defensive alliance conducting offensive operations, like in Serbia or Afghanistan, is in a whole other category of potential danger.


The point is, the fact that Russian policy vis-a-vis NATO changed in the last 25 years doesn't discredit NATO expansion as the primary factor behind the Russo-Ukrainian war, nor does it make the NATO deception narrative a fabrication. An alternative and more plausible explanation is that the policy change itself was in response to the realisation of said deception. And indeed NATO expansion is the primary factor behind this conflict, as openly acknowledged not only by Putin but many western officials too. While all this talk of empire is little more than hot air by wannabe Putin whisperers that can somehow read his mind and know better. Their proof they can do that of course amounts to little more than "trust me brah".

They only said "it's all we know". I doubt ukrainian secret service has many sources in some penal colony, isolated in far north.

And western secret services are all over those isolated penal colonies, that's how our governments know with such certainty. I wonder, if those western secret services are indeed all over the place, how are we so certain this "murder" wasn't a black flag? Provided this really was a murder, the only thing that seems plausible to me is that Putin did not benefit from this death. So who did?

Navalny was indeed a controversial figure, far from "knight in shining armor" picture. That doesn't make political repressions against him any less bad. You just shifting the point.

No, but it does make the political repressions against him a partisan talking point and as such subject to doubt and debate. Let's not forget Navalny was convicted of business fraud, not of "politics". I don't see any credible arguments that he was actually innocent of those charges, the best I've seen is "but everyone was corrupt, so why not him too"... which is a rather weak defense.

[Loyt]

When he was trying to get Russia to join NATO too?

Are you really selling those anecdotes as facts? That was never on a plate. It was cooperation initiative and it even worked well in a while.

Putin himself openly acknowledged he wanted an alliance fairly recently

Did he? Its like he said that unnamed someone supposedly promized him there won't be more members in alliance? Guess, Putin lies much more in recent years. Got older or just stopped to care maybe.

That he thought that Russia and the US can leave behind the enmity of the Cold War era and foster better relations going ahead...

And it did. Then he invaded in Georgia. Relationships deteriorated a bit, but still was okay. Then he annexed Crimea and invaded in East Ukraine. Relationships deteriorated a lot. But they still weren't turned to open enmity, some cooperation continued. Then he invaded in Ukraine again. Yes, looks like its all is US and NATO fault, Putin is innocent victim of cruel deception!!!

And indeed NATO expansion is the primary factor behind this conflict

What a rubbish. Most of NATO expansion happened at the peak of Russia-NATO collaboration. And it wasn't problem then.

And western secret services are all over those isolated penal colonies, that's how our governments know with such certainty

I have no idea that your government claim and how they justify it. But yeah, death of political prisoner is always a reason for suspicion and scrunity. Not to mention, that his confinement was far from just in the first place, and him being constantly bullied in prison by administation is open knowledge.

Putin did not benefit from this

Same old. Its dictatorship, its not about careful weighting of pros and cons. Man, who publically insulted him is dead, everyone around learned Putin is able and not hesitant to punish for it despite scrunity and outside criticizm - its enough benefit already.

[Alastor]

@Loyt
Ah, I see. What I say is anecdotes, but your anecdotes are facts (such as Navalny getting bullied in prison which you of course can independently verify). NATO never committed any wrong here and it was just and friendly towards Russia. So your whole argumentation line devolves to Putin is an evil liar that always evilly lies and therefore you win the internet. And then you speak of rubbish.
Meh, shouldn't have wasted my time.

[Loyt]

What I say is anecdotes

Yes. Russia joining NATO is.

such as Navalny getting bullied in prison which you of course can independently verify

There are lot of materials given by his journalist team and lawyer pointing at that. Real investigation would be better ofc, but base for suspicion exists already.

NATO never committed any wrong here

Towards Russia - no. You yourself have to talk about Afghanistan as example of "atrocities", which has nothing to do with Russia (btw afghanistan war was very beneficial to Russia and Russia even helped to provide logistics to american forces there).

So your whole argumentation line devolves to Putin is an evil liar that always evilly lies and therefore you win the internet

No, your whole argumentation stems from Putin words from 2022 about some unfulfilled promises from the past, while in the past were was no indication those promises existed. And no tension about things he claims are uber important and intolerable now.
And he is a liar, he was caught on that many times.

Now then i think about it, you basically saying "Putin wanted to join NATO, but then he realise it won't happen, he started war against Ukraine because of NATO. And one somehow justify the other". Like there is only two state of things in existence - being allied or being at war, and not being in alliance makes you waging a war an okay thing.

[Pontifex Maximus]

The fact we have devolved into completely unhinged and retarded conversations of Russia joining NATO? Seriously? I have no words.

[Alastor]

The fact we have devolved into completely unhinged and retarded conversations of Russia joining NATO? Seriously? I have no words.

I'm pretty sure that unhinged and retarded are words. Inappropriate and inapplicable words in this case, but words nonetheless.

That Putin was interested in having Russia join NATO is hardly a secret or a recent "devolution". Putin has said so many times and it is also acknowledged by NATO officials. Both sides are "colouring" their recollections with digs at one another, but both sides agree this was being discussed. For example:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...on-in-his-rule

Ex-Nato head says Putin wanted to join alliance early on in his rule

[Ludicus]

Pope criticised for saying Ukraine should 'raise white flag' and end war with Russia...

The 87-year-old pope was asked by the public broadcaster RTS about a debate within Ukraine on whether to surrender to Russia’s invasion.
“I believe that the strongest are those who see the situation, think about the people, and have the courage to raise the white flag and negotiate,” he said. “That word negotiate is a brave word. When you see that you are defeated, that things are not working out, to have the courage to negotiate.”
Ukrainians, Francis said, should not be afraid to negotiate a peace deal before the situation deteriorates any further. “Today, for example with the war in Ukraine, there are many who want to act as mediators. Turkey for example. Don’t be ashamed to negotiate before things get worse.”
Speaking about conflict in general, including the Israel-Gaza war, Francis added: “Negotiations are never a surrender. It is the courage not to carry a country to suicide.”

Which is true. Time will show that Biden's spiritual guide is right when he says that many more people will die needlessly without any hope of winning a losing war. He knows that an independent Ukraine will never count on the help of the Western powers to negotiate peace; all Washington cares about is weakening Russia to the last Ukrainian. What's more, this war is very lucrative for the arms industry.

Meanwhile, in the Guardian, warmonger Simon Tisdall bangs the drums of war and, to do so, doesn't hesitate to praise old and discredited national stereotypes.

Germany's reputation for decisive leadership is in tatters

National stereotypes are unfair, insulting – and strangely reassuring. It’s somehow good to know in an unpredictable, fast-changing world that Italians may be relied upon to be melodramatic, the French rude, the Americans loud and the English drunk. When nations act out of character, and refuse to conform to type, it feels a little disconcerting.
This seems to be what’s happening in Germany today as Europe looks on, perplexed. What has become of that hackneyed Teutonic efficiency, decisiveness, reliability and steely-eyed determination? Is Germany losing its way? Russia’s aggression shattered fundamental geostrategic assumptions.
...An invigorating dose of Sturm und Drang – of decisive, inspirational, forceful leadership – would be infinitely preferable to recent Drift and Dither. Germany must be bolder. With France and Poland, it must show the way…Germany must be bolder. With France and Poland, it must show the way.

“The English drunk”, really? are you drunk, Simon? the way to where?

[Ludicus]

Double post.

[reavertm]

Yes, Lidicus favourite moral guide, pope 😂
I wonder why he didn't encourage Putin to have bravery to pull his troops out of Ukraine? It would immediately stop bloodshed, no negotiations needed.
Really curious 🤔
"Why are you resisting, girl, he is just raping you, be brave and just surrender" 😂

[StarDreamer]

Yes, Lidicus favourite moral guide, pope ��
I wonder why he didn't encourage Putin to have bravery to pull his troops out of Ukraine? It would immediately stop bloodshed, no negotiations needed.
Really curious ��
Why are you resisting, girl, he is just raping you, be brave and just surrender ��

I never knew that the catholic priest cared much for the gender. They seem to be equal gender opportunists when telling kids stuff like that.

[reavertm]

I never knew that the catholic priest cared much for the gender. They seem to be equal gender opportunists when telling kids stuff like that.

Nah, pope didn't use parallels. This was just my intepretation of pope encouraging Ukraine to surrender.
Which is really the most morally abhorrent thing to suggest. Staying silent on the issue would be much better. Pope opened his mouth and left no room for misinterpretation on who is he sympathising with.
As one journalist here in Poland commented, according to pope, Ukraine is like this person who lost the game of cards, now is embarrassed and should just accept and pay up. By addressing just Ukraine, pope says clearly that Ukraine has moral responsibility to negotiate, despite being victim od brutal invasion.
It's deeply immoral position to take.
But then again what to expect from morally bankrupt institution with own share in oppression and not that recent flirting with Nazi regime.
And from stupid with self admitted fascination with Russian literature, fascination that clearly clouds his moral judgement.

[Ludicus]

No, its not "morally abhorrent".
Future will tell whether it is better to negotiate peace now- which does not necessarily imply unconditional surrender- or later. Let's wait and see.One thing's for sure, there won't be a total victory for both contenders.
--
French PM suggests 'Putin's troops are already in our ountry,' pointing at Le Pen.

Heated exchanges broke out in Parliament between Prime Minister Gabriel Attal and far-right leader Marine Le Pen, following Emmanuel Macron's statement that sending Western troops to Ukraine should 'not be ruled out.'

"I'm told it's in the interests of humanity. But what is this divine right that has made France the soldier of every just cause in the world, while the only global empire in existence, the United States, refuses to do the same?" said Le Pen, quoting former Socialist president François Mitterrand

----
Here’s something that makes sense,
Instead of NATO troops, send draft-age Ukrainian men back

Nothing would help the Ukrainian army more than the return of the Ukrainian men of draft age capable of fighting the war," said Kaliňák, who is also deputy prime minister. "They are sufficiently patriotic, so we have to motivate them and provide resources to these young men who are able to serve in the Ukraine army to go back and do so. It's surely better than sending our own soldiers there."
Kaliňák said some 300,000 Ukrainian men have left the country since Russia invaded in February 2022, and can be legally drafted under existing mobilization rules.

Kyiv's new mobilization bill, which has so far only passed first reading in the parliament, lowers the mobilization age from 27 to 25 years, which would allow the rotation of Ukraine’s exhausted front-line soldiers. It has proven unpopular, however, with politicians struggling to recruit public support and more money for a new wave of troops.

Bloodied and exhausted: Ukraine's effort to mobilize more POLITICO

Ukraine's parliament on Thursday withdrew a mobilization bill that would supply more troops to the front, but which has come under ferocious attack for flaws in how it was drafted.
The purpose of the bill is to send more soldiers to battle; the military has said it needs an additional half-million men this year. The extra troops would allow exhausted frontline soldiers who have been fighting for almost two years to rotate home, while also holding the line against the 617,000 Russians fighting in Ukraine. The latter figure was given by Russian President Vladimir Putin, who is increasing the ranks of the Russian military by nearly 170,000 to a whopping 1.3 million.
The mobilization plan, however, is politically toxic.
In the early weeks of the war in February 2022, Ukrainians lined up at draft centers to join the army, while across Europe Ukrainian truck drivers, builders and waiters left their jobs to return home and fight.
But after months of bloody stalemate that continued to cost thousands of lives, that early enthusiasm has evaporated. Meanwhile, military corruption scandals and a sense of exhaustion both at home and among Ukraine's allies have made joining up far less appealing.

“The mobilization of an additional 450,000 to 500,000 people will cost Ukraine 500 billion hryvnia (€12 billion) and I would like to know where the money will come from,” President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in December.

Speaking in Estonia on Thursday, Zelenskyy said: "If you are in Ukraine and you are not at the front, but you work and pay taxes, you also defend the state. And this is very necessary." He added that Ukrainians who have fled the country and are neither fighting nor paying taxes face an ethical dilemma.

Ukrainian political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko said the mobilization bill is very unpopular, so politicians are afraid to take ownership

[Coughdrop addict]

Contrary to what the apologists will tell you about the United States being the boogeyman behind everything that doesn't go Russia's way, the decision to go to war was Putin's and Putin's alone.

The masses weren't pushing him to launch this war. The oligarchs were perfectly happy with the status quo were they could vacation (and launder money) in Europe. Even the hard-line Soviet old guards like Patrushev weren't threatening his rule if he didn't invade Ukraine. Sure Ukraine was moving towards the west, but so had a lot of other former Soviet vassals, and anyway it posed no threat to him. Nazi Ukraine, secret bio-labs, imminent NATO attacks, all were lies that everyone knew were lies in Russia's vranyo culture and had no influence on his decision to go to war.

So...why did he do it?

Fear and vanity.

Throughout his life Putin has desired power and control over others. Now that he has it, he is terrified of losing it. That's why he kills every rival and stomps down on any dissent. But there is one thing he cannot bully into submission. Time.

Putin's getting old; he's already outlived the average Russian male and his paranoia of infection during the pandemic has made him acutely aware of his own mortality. More than anything, he's terrified of being forgotten, a footnote in history. That would be worse then death for a narcissist like him. He wants to be remembered along the likes of Peter the Great or Katherine the Great: people remembered for making Russia powerful and respected (or at least feared).

That is why he invaded Ukraine. It was to be a short and glorious war, the first step in the creation of a new, greatly expanded Russian Empire that would encompass as much of Europe as he could grab. This empire would be his monument and legacy, forever reminding the world of his name and allowing him to -in a sense- project power from the grave. He would gain immortality through it.

All this death and destruction is because one small, frightened man couldn't find a healthy way to cope with his mortality.

Good news for him though, he won't be just a footnote in history: there will be an entire chapter in the books about him, and how he was the final nail in the coffin of Russia's time as a world power and maybe even it's very existence.

[Ludicus]

Opinion-Duda President of Poland – Washington Post.

In the first half of 2025, Poland will hold the presidency of the European Union. Our overarching priority will be: more of the United States in Europe. That means a more active U.S. presence across the military, economic and political domains

I’m not sure if American citizens would be happy if the proposal went in the opposite direction.

And he adds that,

Russia’s imperialistic ambitions and aggressive revisionism are pushing Moscow toward a direct confrontation with NATO, with the West and, ultimately, with the whole free world.

What he should have said, to be accurate "…are pushing NATO toward a direct confrontation with Russia” on a "preventive mission”, -as Madeleine Albright put it. Twenty-five years ago, ago,she explained why NATO is not a purely defensive alliance: “It’s an insurance against all risks.”

She starts by saying,

(…) steadily and systematically, we will continue erasing the line drawn in Europe by Stalin’s bloody boot.

As someone pointed out at the time “In any case, failure to expand NATO would not set Stalin's dividing line in stone. That dividing line no longer exists”.

She goes on,

…NATO’s founders understood that what our alliance commits us to do under Article V is not all we may be called upon to do or should reserve the right to do…it as ‘‘insurance against all risks…whatever its nature.

“Is not all”. NATO, the UN, and the Use of Force-1999

The Clinton Administration has argued that if nineteen democracies deem the threat or use of force necessary to right a specific wrong, then that fact in and of itself provides sufficient justification and legitimacy for the contemplated action.

In other words, NATO has carte blanche to use force whenever and wherever it wants, to rectify "specific wrongs", whatever they may be.

Essential readings.
The Debate Over NATO Expansion: A Critique of the Clinton Administration's Responses to Key Questions
A KENNAN FOR OUR TIMES-Revisiting America’s Greatest 20th Century Diplomat in the 21st Century- Wilson Center
13 Chapters, including the introduction.
----
If they had listened to Kennan, Europe would probably be at peace now instead of at war.

[conon394]

You know Ludicus Russia interference in Moldova and Georgia predated NATO expansion. Its almost like Russia did not believe they were real countries Why one might think a country Estonia or Poland might just have a reason to reason to really really want to be in NATO - but I suppose things look different from Portugal - maybe they just need to be neutral and trust a Russia promise about their boarder integrity (worked for Ukraine right err oh yes - not). Hey on that Ukraine is corrupt thing how did that snap election go, caused by what again?

[mishkin]

Ludicus you have quoted the pope, Le Pen and Duda to assert your arguments . Just think about it for a moment.

[Coughdrop addict]

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-oil-...snodar-1880045

Ukraine allegedly attacked another oil refinery overnight, Russian authorities said on Sunday, in the latest of a series of assaults on Moscow's oil facilities.
"Several" Ukrainian drones targeted the Slavyansk oil refinery in Russia's southern Krasnodar region at around 3 a.m. local time (8 p.m. Saturday ET), local authorities reported on Sunday. A fire broke out at the facility as one of the drones fell from the sky, said local officials.
Kyiv has doubled down on its attacks on Russia's key infrastructure, like its oil refineries, in the past few days. The damage to the Krasnodar facility rounds off a string of strikes, and is thought to be the sixth oil refinery struck in the past week, although Ukrainian media reports and Russian officials suggest the number of attempted strikes is likely higher.

Cue the apologists "How dare they attack civilian infrastructure!"

[PointOfViewGun]

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-oil-...snodar-1880045
Cue the apologists "How dare they attack civilian infrastructure!"

Since they don't bother to watch any video to not get hurt over exploding Russian machinery to them none of that happened.

[Coughdrop addict]

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-puti...iberia-1880193

A Russian polling district in southern Siberia has scrambled to recount votes after presidential candidate Nikolai Kharitonov received more votes than Vladimir Putin in the March 15 to 17 election, according to local media reports.
Voting results were recounted at a polling station in the city of Barnaul in the Altai Republic after the Russian electoral commission found a "technical error." It resulted in veteran candidate Kharitonov of the Communist Party receiving 763 votes—10 times more than the number of votes for Putin, independent Russian publication Meduza reported. The new results are still unknown. Newsweek has contacted Russia's Foreign Ministry via email for comment.

The funniest part is all of the Orcs in the comments feverishly declaring Putin is 100% adored by all and US elections are all fake in a desperate hope to avoid certain death at the front.

[Papay]

Interesting to see who Putin is going to blame for the terrorist attack in Moscow