Hamas attacks southern Israel

[PointOfViewGun]

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

https://www.pcpsr.org/sites/default/...rch%202024.pdf

Most Palestinians support Hamas over the PA, the nominal state government of “Palestine,” by orders of magnitude. 59% in prefer that Hamas remain in control of Gaza indefinitely, only 13% want the PA to return. 64% believe Hamas will defeat Israel militarily, and 73% oppose organizing a coalition of Arab peacekeeping forces under the PA to control Gaza after the war.

71% support Hamas’ decision to launch the 10/7 attacks, 81% of those who have seen footage of the atrocities Hamas proudly recorded that day do not consider them problematic, and 72% are satisfied with Hamas’ performance since then.

If an election were held, 63% of Palestinians say they would back militant jihadist candidates, including the political leader of Hamas. Only 8% would vote for Abbas. 71% want Abbas to resign from office altogether.

Palestinians support intifada over negotiated peace and political resistance by a 2 to 1 margin. 63% oppose peace negotiations with the goal of a two state solution. 52% oppose a two state solution altogether, and 61% believe it is not even a realistic proposal.

The plain fact of the matter is most Palestinians support Hamas, support intifada and hate the PA. Only in the minds of delusional westerners is a magic two state solution with equal rights for everyone headed by the PA a relevant concept.

I have mentioned before how silly it is for western liberals and leftists to parade around with the flag of the despised PA demanding solutions that have already been rejected by the people they claim to advocate for. But it is even more ridiculous to see the mental gymnastics on display throughout, attempting to portray Hamas as some rogue fringe anomaly that no one actually supports and has no agency in the conflict. Palestinians support Hamas and the 10/7 attacks. Most western leftist protesters wreaking havoc in the streets support Hamas and the 10/7 attacks. And because of that support, Palestinians hold out hope for final military victory over the hated Jew, sure to be vanquished by the heroic holy warriors of Hamas.

If people clutching pearls over anything the IDF is responsible for really want to end the war and stop the suffering, they would get tf out of the way and stop trying to prevent the IDF from finishing the job. Until then, Palestinians will continue to support intifada and oppose political negotiations, because they feel supported at home and abroad, and therefore they will continue to serve as meat shields for their jihadist heroes in a conflict that has no end in sight.

Basically, we should ignore consistent data on Gazan majority preferring Palestinian Authority administration over Hamas in favour of "data" collected under wartime conditions. This is what we call lying through statistics.

New Poll Shows Gazans Pragmatic Now, But Not Long-Term:

Also notable is that Gazans continue to express disapproval of Hamas’ policies towards Israel. About half (53%) agree at least somewhat that “Hamas should stop calling for Israel’s destruction, and instead accept a permanent two-state solution based on the 1967 borders,” a percentage that has held steady over the last three years. 59% of Gazans also agree that Hamas should give up its armed units in favor of PA officers in Gaza. Likewise, nearly two-thirds of Gazans would agree at least somewhat with the need for Hamas to preserve the cease-fire in both Gaza and the West Bank.

[Muizer]

Reread the beginning of this discussion. We all condemned the terrorist acts of October 7. Do we have to head each post denouncing the current barbarity that is the invasion of Gaza with a condemnation of the murders of civilians on October 7?

Reread my answer to PoVG who made the exact same observation a few posts back.

They have been a political party and government fully accepted (to say the least) by Israel until very recently. They are not a regime, they are not the elected government of the Palestinian people unless you go back eighteen years ago. They are not a regime, they do not represent a state, the Hamas militias are not the army of Palestine.

You're confusing legitimacy with power.

[Lord Thesaurian]

Basically, we should ignore consistent data on Gazan majority preferring Palestinian Authority administration over Hamas in favour of "data" collected under wartime conditions. This is what we call lying through statistics.

In early 2021, half of Palestinians wanted to dissolve the PA altogether, 58% opposed a two state solution, 61% said it was not feasible, 60% supported a return to intifada. If an election were held in 2021, 59% said they would vote for Hamas’ Ismael Haniyeh, 27% for the PA’s Abbas. This is similar to the 2023 and 2024 data in my last post. It’s silly to call this relative consistency a wartime anomaly based on an article and poll that don’t contradict it in the first place. Lying through statistics might be a generous way to put it.

In 2021, Fatah Tanzim’s Barghouti was an electoral favorite over Haniyeh by about 10 points, and was equally favored to replace Abbas in a hypothetical matchup. In 2024, support for Barghouti has grown to a 20 point lead over Haniyeh, and 40 points over Abbas. The most we can glean from the screenshot you posted is a sense that many Palestinians consistently prefer the leader of the first and second intifadas over the current one.

The Washington Institute article you posted from 2022 reflects rather than rebuts the trend I cited.

When asked about the top Palestinian national priority in the next five years, the majority (55%) still rate reclaiming “all of historic Palestine, from the river to the sea” over other options, such as prioritizing a two-state solution. Only about a third (37%) of Gazans say they would accept the “principle of two states for two peoples,” even if it was the last step towards ending the occupation.

A similar percentage of Gazans (58%) likewise continue to assert that the conflict with Israel should not end even if a two-state is achieved and should continue until all of historic Palestine is liberated. An even higher majority (73%) agree at least somewhat with the assertion that any compromise with Israel should be temporary until the restoration of historic Palestine, a number that has remained almost the same over the past three years.

Looking further ahead, Gazans' attitudes toward the conflict remain maximalist. 46% of Gazans believe that the “Palestinians will control almost all of Palestine, because God is on their side,” a number that has not changed a great deal in the last three years.

Because of the attacks on 10/7 and the simultaneous involvement of Iran, Hezbollah and the Houthis, the IDF no longer has escalation dominance and cannot afford to rely on deterrence to maintain a ceasefire. That means a permanent ceasefire is not possible unless the IDF can convince Hamas they are defeated. The latter are unlikely to concede defeat while enjoying the support of the majority of Palestinians and powerful interests in the west and throughout the Muslim world. Iran is the winner here by far, and Israel has a long, grinding road ahead to any return to normal.

[PointOfViewGun]

In early 2021, half of Palestinians wanted to dissolve the PA altogether, 58% opposed a two state solution, 61% said it was not feasible, 60% supported a return to intifada. If an election were held in 2021, 59% said they would vote for Hamas’ Ismael Haniyeh, 27% for the PA’s Abbas. This is similar to the 2023 and 2024 data in my last post. It’s silly to call this relative consistency a wartime anomaly based on an article and poll that don’t contradict it in the first place. Lying through statistics might be a generous way to put it.

In 2021, Fatah Tanzim’s Barghouti was an electoral favorite over Haniyeh by about 10 points, and was equally favored to replace Abbas in a hypothetical matchup. In 2024, support for Barghouti has grown to a 20 point lead over Haniyeh, and 40 points over Abbas. The most we can glean from the screenshot you posted is a sense that many Palestinians consistently prefer the leader of the first and second intifadas over the current one.

I don't know what poll you're referring to in using those numbers. Given that both in 2020 and 2022 Gazans wanted PA to take over instead of being governed by Hamas by 62% and 59% respectively its highly unlikely your numbers carry any weight. You tried to show that Hamas enjoyed majority support in Gaza in order to make Gazan civilians culpable for Hamas' every action. Polling data conducted before the most recent flare in fighting directly contradicts what you tried to argue. The real lesson to learn is that support for Hamas is tied to Israeli brutality. It is no coincidence that opposition to Hamas decreases relatively, but never falling below 50%, in years of increased Israeli strikes on Gaza.

The Washington Institute article you posted from 2022 reflects rather than rebuts the trend I cited.

Because of the attacks on 10/7 and the simultaneous involvement of Iran, Hezbollah and the Houthis, the IDF no longer has escalation dominance and cannot afford to rely on deterrence to maintain a ceasefire. That means a permanent ceasefire is not possible unless the IDF can convince Hamas they are defeated. The latter are unlikely to concede defeat while enjoying the support of the majority of Palestinians and powerful interests in the west and throughout the Muslim world. Iran is the winner here by far, and Israel has a long, grinding road ahead to any return to normal.

That's more of a wishful thinking than one based on reality. The right in USA has the tendency to blow up the role of Iran connected to any conflict.

Initial US intelligence suggests Iran was surprised by the Hamas attack on Israel

The United States has collected specific intelligence that suggests senior Iranian government officials were caught by surprise by Saturday’s bloody attack on Israel by Hamas, according to multiple sources familiar with the intelligence.
The existence of the intelligence has cast doubt on the idea that Iran was directly involved in the planning, resourcing or approving of the operation, sources said.

Netanyahu's support for Hamas and Israeli army's apparent complicity in letting the attack materialize played a much bigger role than anything we know Iran did.

[Lord Thesaurian]

I don't know what poll you're referring to in using those numbers.

I’m referring to the ones I cited, corroborated by the article you posted.

Given that both in 2020 and 2022 Gazans wanted PA to take over instead of being governed by Hamas by 62% and 59% respectively its highly unlikely your numbers carry any weight.

On the contrary, it’s highly unlikely the one screenshot you provided suggesting anything of the sort countervails the mountain of evidence I have cited. It is also from a different article apart from the one you posted, so I’ve no way of knowing how the methodology fits in with Palestinians’ support for Hamas. The most we can say about your screenshot is Palestinians likely prefer a militant leader more closely affiliated with Fatah, like Barghouti, over Hamas’ Haniyeh.

You tried to show that Hamas enjoyed majority support in Gaza in order to make Gazan civilians culpable for Hamas' every action.

Hamas does have majority support in Gaza, as cited. More importantly, even if Hamas disappeared tomorrow, your own source indicates Palestinians reject a two state solution or a permanent peace with Israel, so the argument that many Palestinians may prefer other jihadist leadership over Hamas is moot.

Polling data conducted before the most recent flare in fighting directly contradicts what you tried to argue.

No it doesn’t.

The real lesson to learn is that support for Hamas is tied to Israeli brutality.

Your own source suggests otherwise. Support for Hamas is tied to consistent Palestinian support for intifada and Hamas’ perceived success in that fight. “(58%) likewise continue to assert that the conflict with Israel should not end even if a two-state is achieved. An even higher majority (73%) agree at least somewhat with the assertion that any compromise with Israel should be temporary.”

That's more of a wishful thinking than one based on reality. The right in USA has the tendency to blow up the role of Iran connected to any conflict.

What I said was the 10/7 attacks and their consequences have been a major victory for Iran. The IRGC claimed 10/7 was orchestrated in retaliation for the assassination of Soleimani, so you’ll have to debate reality with them. We will likely never know the full story.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) says the October 7 attack by Hamas on Israel was a retaliatory action for the assassination of Qasem Soleimani.

According to the IRGC-affiliated Fars News Agency, in a press conference held on Wednesday, Ramezan Sharif, the spokesperson for the IRGC said "The Al-Aqsa Storm was one of the retaliations of the Axis of Resistance against the Zionists for the martyrdom of Qasem Soleimani," the man behind Iran's proxy activities across the region.

https://www.iranintl.com/en/202312278189