Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

[PointOfViewGun]

Ok, some daily idiotic skepticism here.
Talking about "Putin's spike". It's clear that Putin is bloody mad dictator who wanted to smash Ukraine. What about another side of the Force, the Fortress of All Good and it's Masters. It's clear they wanted to prevent attack and save Ukraine. What did they do for this purpose? Seems that their strategy was to arm Ukraine with modern weapons and lay sanctions on Russia. Arm Ukraine. Lay sanctions. Repeat.
One saying here about ineffective Russia. Seems that Western strategy isn't so effective too. Because here is Putin's aggression. Especially now when all Western countries and even the whole world feels side effects of those sanctions on itself. Russia didn't stop gas and oil transfer even for a second even those 15 days. So fuel prices rocketing is not because of that. But it's "Putin's spike", ofc.
We do believe that Western officials are not stupid. They definitely know what they're doing. A question is - why did they do what they done?
(I'm not even asking about such options for preventing attack as Minsk II or something else).

This time it is not idiotic skepticism. It's senseless drivel. Nothing you said makes sense there.

It's my turn to ask you to explain your statement. Donbass residents didn't ask for help?
Ukraine armed by NATO and trained by NATO and provided common military maneuvers with NATO and bloody pranking on Russian language in the country with large Russian diaspora and continuous threatening to Donbass and Crimea? And Russian post Soviet gas transporting system which is actually is a hostage of Ukrainian regime? No threats at all.

This is also wrong. NATO didn't train Ukrainian forces. It also didn't arm them before the full Russian invasion attempt. Describing Ukrainian sovereignty over who transports what over its lands as Russia being hostage is also just senseless drivel.

[Cope]

Mearsheimer demystifies the conventional wisdom applied to the causes of conflict,

There's little value in lessons on the "causes of the conflict" from those who insisted that there would be no conflict at all. The Mearsheimer position - which was predicated on the anticipation of serious Russian military intervention in Ukraine - is the opposite of what was argued by the anti-American/NATO left prior to 2/24. Until then, they repeatedly claimed that Moscow's intentions were a western conspiracy, worthy of mockery. Now they selectively cite Mearsheimer in an attempt to save face.

[Janbāru]

It's my turn to ask you to explain your statement. Donbass residents didn't ask for help?

Ukraine armed by NATO and trained by NATO and provided common military maneuvers with NATO and bloody pranking on Russian language in the country with large Russian diaspora and continuous threatening to Donbass and Crimea? And Russian post Soviet gas transporting system which is actually is a hostage of Ukrainian regime? No threats at all.

I said thanks for correct response and I'd be thankful for substantial discussion.

Here is today's Borrell interview
https://www.azerbaycan24.com/en/borr...o-was-mistake/

That has nothing to do with NATO, at least originally. The main issue comes from 2014 with Donbas. As far as I know, during the fights opposing Ukraine to pro-rus separatists, Russia supported the pro-rus forces in Donbas, first with volunteers and materiel, then with irregular fighters (such as Wagner group for instance), regular Russian troops and military support and finally by invading or occupying Donbas if you prefer. Of course Russia never recognized the presence of regular troops and pretended to help pro-rus who were asking for it.
Anyway, the Minsk Agreements between September 2014 and February 2015 have never been implemented. And the issue between Ukraine and Donbas has remained unsolved.
That's just a quick summary of course.

As I have answered to your question, could you answer to mine: What is the russian legitemacy for invading the whole Ukraine nowadays?

[Mithradates]

It's my turn to ask you to explain your statement. Donbass residents didn't ask for help?

Ukraine armed by NATO and trained by NATO and provided common military maneuvers with NATO and bloody pranking on Russian language in the country with large Russian diaspora and continuous threatening to Donbass and Crimea? And Russian post Soviet gas transporting system which is actually is a hostage of Ukrainian regime? No threats at all.

I said thanks for correct response and I'd be thankful for substantial discussion.

Here is today's Borrell interview
https://www.azerbaycan24.com/en/borr...o-was-mistake/

Just to clarify things because I think this is the root of the misunderstanding, this is not a new war, this is just a new chapter in a war that started in 2014 when Russia invaded Eastern Ukraine, Russia was the aggressor then, and it has been ever since, Donbass and Crimea are occupied Ukrainian territories.

Long live to the baby and mother.

"Madonna of Gorlovka" a.k.a. "smashed colorad female" also had a child. And on that photo she is with child too.

Two wrongs don't make a right. Today its Russia who is terror-bombing Ukrainian hospitals.

[reavertm]

Who gave Putin right to invade Ukraine? God himself.

https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/...marks-83322338

You see folks, you don't understand. It's not about Ukraine wanting to attack separatist republics, or NATO encircling Russia. It's not even about Ukrainian oil.
It's about gay parades, folks. They threaten Russian fascist values. Putin will have none of that.

[Prodromos]

Who gave Putin right to invade Ukraine? God himself.

https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/...marks-83322338

You see folks, you don't understand. It's not about Ukraine wanting to attack separatist republics, or NATO encircling Russia. It's not even about Ukrainian oil.
It's about gay parades, folks. They threaten Russian fascist values. Putin will have none of that.

Last I checked only 14% of Ukrainians believe homosexuality should be accepted by society and an even lower proportion (9%) favor recognizing same-sex "marriage", which is constitutionally prohibited in Ukraine.

https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2...lity-persists/

https://www.pewforum.org/2017/05/10/...astern-europe/

[Condottiere 40K]

1. Most Russian men don't live past sixty.

2. In that demographic, the vast majority watch and believe television news.

3. Basically, if Fox News clones were the only channels in Russia.

4. So, the Russians think their army is liberating the Ukrainians.

5. The young who get their news from the internet, know different.

6. The ones not in the Putin Youth are now getting out.

7. The people in the inner circle are likely scared , because they can extrapolate what happens in failed military campaigns.

8. And they weren't consulted; nor did they belief he would go through with it.

9. It's hard to get an appointment with him, since you have to undergo a two week quarantine, and walk through a misting machine.

A. Two years of self isolation probably didn't do much for his sanity.

B. Nor that he's quite aware that everyone has come to the conclusion this will only end when someone puts a bullet in him.

C. But, he's a survivor, and ready to finalize his legacy in his crusade to kick out America from the continent, and reunify the Soviet Union.

D. After all, he's about to hit seventy, a significant anniversary.

E. In the meantime, the Russian airlines are frantically looking to score some spare parts from Chinese and other airlines.

F. Chinese airlines, well aware of the fate of Huawei, aren't willing to commit suicide.

G. They do so, their supply gets sanctioned, and within a year or less, they go bust.

H. The same with semi conductors, created primarily by Western equipment and intellectual property.

I. But Putin has a plan.

K. He will nationalize all the property of Western firms that are leaving, and run them by Russian proxies.

L. Burger Czar and Starski.

M. I heard a weird reason that the Russians aren't fielding their advanced wunderwaffen in Ukraine.

N. They are afraid that the West will get hold of them.

O. Now, I suspect there are extensive numbers of Western agents in Ukraine, advising and assisting the Ukrainians.

P. So, plausible.

Q. Or, comparatively, they are like their German counterparts.

R. Overrated.

S. I think most people just prefer to ignore alternate lifestyles.

T. As long as it's not in their face.

U. The Indians are discovering that their dependence on Russian weapon systems makes them subject to extortion, especially since the Russians now favour greater cooperation with their arch enemy, China.

[bitterhowl]

As I have answered to your question, could you answer to mine: What is the russian legitemacy for invading the whole Ukraine nowadays?

Too quick I think. What about Russia-Ukraine Gas Wars? I gave sources here. When did they start? What about Russian language in whole Ukraine? NATO had no sense? You mean Ukrainian request to be NATO member and NATO promises to include Ukraine is nothing? Borrell is Putin's propagandist too?

Wagner's groop on Donbass? There where military specialist I suppose but not Wagner. You use stamps of your media, it's not good.

Upd. Ok, I checked again the sources about that - all statements combined with "presumably".
If we speak substantial about the situation - there was a "colourful revolution" in Ukraine in 2013. Which was made by some similar "grey zone" measures by US. Or you think Ms Nuland with her cakes was the only American there at that time?

By the way - Ukrainian special task unit "Berkut" members was burned by protesters during that Maidan. How do you think, if something similar would happen in US or UK to their SWAT - what reaction from officials should be?

Do you know how many Donbass residents has Russian passports and Russian citizenship? Yes, it was a tricky way but many people made that decision. I think it's legal to have more than one citizenship. They decided Russian passports could protect against Ukrainian bombs.

If you'll see OCSE reports Donbass bombings from Ukraine continued untill February 2022. It means that Ukraine attacks people with Russian passports.

Two wrongs don't make a right. Today its Russia who is terror-bombing Ukrainian hospitals.

It's a good point that you at least confirm this fact. Seems that Google showed that photo for you. Next fact is reaction of Ukrainian officials, even in public media. "Smashed colorad female" - it's not Donbass people called her by this naming. It's not only two wrongs, it's a symbol forced by Ukrainian officials. Looks a little different, don't you think?

[Janbāru]

If you refuse a honest debat, there's no point to carry on. Let me remind you the rules of this forum and especially this one:

1) Debate in good faith and respect other members. Elaborate and further develop your arguments whilst trying to respond to other members' arguments. Do not continue to repeat the same arguments.

The gaz war was started by Putin, applying high prices and shutting down the gas pipeline at several occasions (2005, 2008 and 2009 if my memeory serves me well). But I think that the crisis actually began in 1993.

I can't find the exact content of the 1st european proposal, the one refused by the former ukrainian president Viktor Lanoukovitch in 2013, but the next year, the agreement between EU, Ukraine, Moldavia and Georgia was purely a business one. There was nothing related to NATO in that one.
Anyway, it didn't prevent Putin to take Crimea and support the pro-rus separatists in Donbass.

And yes, the Wagner group was in Donbass in 2014. That's actualy where it starts his "business". See the following pic for example:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

And to be sure to not be accused of bias, this is a pic taken in 2014 in Donbass from a Vietnamese website (don't think they're pro-westerners): -Chiến tranh ở Ukraine: Cách Nga tuyển dụng lính đánh thuê « PHẠM TÂY SƠN (Phạm đình Tuấn) (wordpress.com)

You're mentionning people with russian passport but how many russian-speaking Ukrainians are currently fighting against the russian army? Have a look at what is hapening in Kharkiv or Kherson. So, please, don't try to make me believe that most of the Ukrainian are pro-russian. Thanks.

So now, I'd appreciate if you could answer to my question: What is the russian legitemacy for invading the whole Ukraine nowadays?

[bitterhowl]

Some NATO related stuff here, if you please.
https://www.axios.com/nato-ukraine-r...fb7c52561.html

I mean people with Russian passports in terms that Ukraine continued bombings people with Russian citizenship at Donbass annoying Minsk II and many proposals to stop that. If you propose someone to stop some activities and he ignores your asking what will you do?

So, please, don't try to make me believe that most of the Ukrainian are pro-russian. Thanks.

I ever tried that?

Gas Wars I mean all Ukrainian activities around GTS since 1993. And they continued all those years. US wants to interfere Russian energy transfer so Ukraine is a good case. Ukraine started those activities by itself by the way.

When Russia built alternative pass "Yamal-Europe" through Belarus and Poland, and when it was finished in 1999 what did happened? Yes, what a pity, Poland was included in NATO. After all gas crisis in 2000-th Nord Stream 2 was planned, to avoid any interference on GTS and to organise normal transfer of gas to Europe. What a deadly crime of Putin. What did happened during it's construction?

So GTS unsolved issues playing an important role in current situation.

[Condottiere 40K]

1. I could be wrong that the Russians can switch out their frontline units.

2. I don't know how valid this is, but the Russians have one hundred twenty seven combat frontline (probably battalion size) units.

3. They have deployed one hundred twenty five of them in Ukraine.

4. In total, about fifty five percent of the effective strength of the Russian army, whether logistics tail or combat.

5. Seems off, but there you are.

6. It seems unlikely Putin is willing to risk the interior security troops in Ukraine.

7. However, it looks like they have sent in the brownshirts to occupied territories, Putin's personal militia.

8. Unlike conscripts, they won't have any scruples in breaking up civilian demonstrations.

[Janbāru]

Some NATO related stuff here, if you please.
https://www.axios.com/nato-ukraine-r...fb7c52561.html

I mean people with Russian passports in terms that Ukraine continued bombings people with Russian citizenship at Donbass annoying Minsk II and many proposals to stop that. If you propose someone to stop some activities and he ignores your asking what will you do?
I ever tried that?

Gas Wars I mean all Ukrainian activities around GTS since 1993. And they continued all those years. US wants to interfere Russian energy transfer so Ukraine is a good case. Ukraine started those activities by itself by the way.

When Russia built alternative pass "Yamal-Europe" through Belarus and Poland, and when it was finished in 1999 what did happened? Yes, what a pity, Poland was included in NATO. After all gas crisis in 2000-th Nord Stream 2 was planned, to avoid any interference on GTS and to organise normal transfer of gas to Europe. What a deadly crime of Putin. What did happened during it's construction?

So GTS unsolved issues playing an important role in current situation.

You're mixing different points with not necessary a direct link even if they tend to the same consequence we know today.
Ukraine joining NATO is something different to the EU agreement, the former being a military alliance while the later is an economic agreement.
Ukraine started relations with NATO in 1992, just after becoming independent in 1991. Ukraine applied to become a NATO member in 2008.
As said in my previous post, the EU agreement was signed in 2014. See 2 different facts.

However, I agree that the biggest mistake of Europe was to not include Russia in the new relationship equation with the Eastern Europe.

Regarding Donbass, that's difficult to say who started the hostilities first. But for sure, Putin added fuel to the fire instead of calming all these people down. The Minsk agreements have never been respected by any side, Ukrainian and Donbass alike. Finally, as far as I know Donbass bombed the Ukrainian side as well. Casualties have been on both sides and miltary for most of them. Regarding the possible russian casualties during these 8 years of war, if they looked like the guys on pic I posted above, they don't look like tourists.

Regarding Poland joining NATO, that was not something new. Poland and NATO initiated contacts in 1990, 9 years before Poland was included in NATO as a full member. Don't tell me that you didn't see it coming in Russia!!!
Again, that's about a military alliance and has nothing to do with the economic aspect. Poland joining the EU, yes but definitively not the NATO IMO.
Btw, it is weird to see how you focuse on Poland while Hungary and the Czech Republic joined NATO at the same time

Btw, I'm still waiting for my anwser: What is the russian legitemacy for invading the whole Ukraine nowadays?

[bitterhowl]

All my posts is an answer to your request.

Please quote me when I wrote that Russia invade Ukraine because of EU membership? I always write this 4 letters - NATO. Because it's a military alliance against USSR and then Russia.

All that Eastern European countries that came to NATO - it's same cheating policy of US who deceived stupid peace-minded Gorbachev.

I'm speaking about Poland because there's new Russian GTS there. Any similar in Czech Republic or Hungary? I told the reason I'm saying about Poland and I remind about my intention to substantial talk.

As for tourists. I'm saying again - simple residents of Donbass got Russian passports i.e. citizenship. They hope Ukrainian officials will be awared to fire on Russian citizen. Nope, they didn't awared.

So in summary. Post Soviet Russia since 1992 has neighbour continuously stealing gas, providing increasing pressure on Russian diaspora in the country, reanimating nationalism in extreme forms (Bandera's monuments, torchlight processions in a capital), requesting to become a member of hostile alliance, then after coup d'etat providing direct aggression against Russian speaking population and finally attacking Russian citizen with heavy weapons. No, there's no reason to finish such a bloody pranking.

[bitterhowl]

Israel is on the line.
https://m.jpost.com/israel-news/article-701041

[nhytgbvfeco2]

Israel is on the line.
https://m.jpost.com/israel-news/article-701041

This article is false, actually. Here is an article discrediting it, though you'd have to translate it. The Ukranians confirmed it too.
I quote: "PM of ���� @naftalibennett
, just as other conditional intermediary countries, does NOT offer Ukraine to agree to any demands of the Russian Federation. This is impossible for military & political reasons. On the contrary, Israel urges Russia to assess the events more adequately."

[Vanoi]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/live-upda...081947928.html

A senior Russian diplomat is warning that Moscow could target Western shipments of military equipment to Ukraine.

Speaking Saturday, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said that Moscow has warned the U.S. it would see the deliveries of Western weapons to Ukraine as targets.

Ryabkov said Russia “warned the U.S. that pumping weapons from a number of countries it orchestrates isn’t just a dangerous move, it’s an action that makes those convoys legitimate targets.”

Under no circumstance should the West stop sending weapons to Ukraine. If Russia wants to try to attack Western convoys they are more than welcome to try. Russia knows that would lead to war with NATO. And considering Russian military performance in Ukraine, I would think they'd avoid fighting NATO if they don't want their troops coming home dead in droves.

[Mithradates]

From bad intel to worse Putin reportedly turns on FSB agency that botched Russia’s Ukraine prep

As Russia’s war against Ukraine enters its third week, President Vladimir Putin is cracking down on his favorite agency — the FSB. Journalists Andrei Soldatov and Irina Borogan, who have long specialized in covering Russia’s security services, report that the FSB’s foreign intelligence arm, the so-called Fifth Service, has become the target of repressions. According to Soldatov and Borogan’s sources, its leadership has been placed under house arrest.

In fact, it was the Fifth Service that was responsible for providing Vladimir Putin with information about political developments in Ukraine in the leadup to the invasion. And after two weeks of war, it now appears that Putin has finally realized that he was misled: afraid of angering the Russian leader, the Fifth Service simply told him what he wanted to hear.

Now, our sources report that General Beseda and his deputy have been placed under house arrest — for reasons including the alleged misuse of funds allocated for operations, as well as for providing bad intelligence.

Vladimir Vladimirovich is infallible! It's someone else's fault!

[StarDreamer]

From bad intel to worse Putin reportedly turns on FSB agency that botched Russia’s Ukraine prep







Vladimir Vladimirovich is infallible! It's someone else's fault!

Of course Tsar Vlad the Tiny is infallible, not at all his fault for fostering a culture of corruption.

[bitterhowl]

Kherson 03.12.2022
Wasted occupated land.

By the way, Nancy Pelosi's speach about "Glory to Uhane" and "President Kevensky" is false too maybe?
https://t.me/vsvyaznoi/6285

Previously she made something similar
https://miamistandard.news/2022/03/0...s-her-regards/

[Janbāru]

All my posts is an answer to your request.

Please quote me when I wrote that Russia invade Ukraine because of EU membership? I always write this 4 letters - NATO. Because it's a military alliance against USSR and then Russia.

All that Eastern European countries that came to NATO - it's same cheating policy of US who deceived stupid peace-minded Gorbachev.

I'm speaking about Poland because there's new Russian GTS there. Any similar in Czech Republic or Hungary? I told the reason I'm saying about Poland and I remind about my intention to substantial talk.

As for tourists. I'm saying again - simple residents of Donbass got Russian passports i.e. citizenship. They hope Ukrainian officials will be awared to fire on Russian citizen. Nope, they didn't awared.

All your posts are asking questions to others while refusing to adress their points. Your interpretation of the sources your posted is discutable when not the sources themselves.
Do you really think that the pic I've posted earlier shows a russian civilian living in Donbass?
Do you really think that Ukraine is the only one guilty about the situation in Donbass? Someone has already replied to you showing that both sides were using heavy weapons and that casualties were also on both sides and mostly military, not civilian.
For your information, NATO is not a hostile alliance. It has never attacked anybody. That's just a defensive alliance. And as already stated by other members here, what Russia has to do in an independant country will to join NATO? Did Russia take care of other countries' opinion when it invaded Georgia in 2008?

So in summary. Post Soviet Russia since 1992 has neighbour continuously stealing gas, providing increasing pressure on Russian diaspora in the country, reanimating nationalism in extreme forms (Bandera's monuments, torchlight processions in a capital), requesting to become a member of hostile alliance, then after coup d'etat providing direct aggression against Russian speaking population and finally attacking Russian citizen with heavy weapons. No, there's no reason to finish such a bloody pranking.

Ah here we go: the russian nationalism in all its splendor. I honestly can't see the difference between it and the ukrainian one.
Thanks for showing your true opinion and for demonstrating that there's no justification to the actual invasion if Ukraine by Russia.
This concludes our discussion.

Edit 1: about the situation in Kherson: Ukraine: How a fake Russian TV report covered up a protest in Kherson (france24.com)

Edit 2: and more:
Ukrainian Protester Says Russian Troops Are 'Scared' of Demonstrators (businessinsider.com)

Over 400 Ukrainians protesters detained by Russian National Guard, Ukraine says | Reuters

It doesn't look like a peaceful occupation to me