Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

[Septentrionalis]

It is also being reported that atleast (could be significantly higher), 40% of equipment/weapons never makes it to the Ukrainian army, instead is sold-off around the world to who knows who!? On the black market.

That's what Russia in its desperation reports and wants everyone to believe so that Ukraine would lose support.

If I see someone driving around in a HIMARS or a T-72 who shouldn't be in possession of one, I'll be sure to report it.

[PointOfViewGun]

The 600/1000 casualties a day is also months old figure that was describing a particular period. In reality, we have a Russian army proved to be third world tier, which lost a good deal of not just soldiers but commanders, along with numerous armored vehicles. The Russian state is even incapable of providing proper equipment to their soldiers as privates are told to buy their own armored vests. They are also unable to dominate the Ukrainian skies as well as the Ukrainian seas. The Russian navy is cowering behind Crimea after embarrassing losses and the latest strikes showed that they are not even safe there. Right now, we have a Russian army that's basically cowering behind use of nuclear missiles and the only damage it can done is random conventional missile strikes at Ukrainian cities. They're retreating but we are to believe that there will be a big push come winter.

I think you have been watching too much FOX news - Russia has plenty of "modern military hardware".
It is also being reported that atleast (could be significantly higher), 40% of equipment/weapons never makes it to the Ukrainian army, instead is sold-off around the world to who knows who!? On the black market. Hmmm...billions $$$ wasted!

I love how the same people that claim the West is flooding Ukraine with weapons which is the reason for Ukrainian success is also saying that half the weapons don't even make it to Ukraine.

[conon394]

Russia has plenty of "modern military hardware"

Odd than those T-62 deployments when you think T-14s would be on the front lines cutting through Ukrainian defenses.

[Ludicus]

Finally, a light at the end of the tunnel…

From the Guardian.

The Biden administration in the US is privately encouraging Ukraine’s leaders to signal an openness to negotiate with Russia and drop their public refusal to engage in peace.
Kyiv authorities have begun planning the evacuation of the city’s 3m residents if the Ukrainian capital suffers a complete blackout, according to the New York Times.

Italian rally calls for country to stop sending weapons to Ukraine

calling for peace in Ukraine… some, including former prime minister Giuseppe Conte, have said Italy should be stepping up negotiations instead.

We must end this war – saving Ukraine's democracy is just one reason to do so-The Guardian

What remains of Ukraine’s fragile democracy may not survive, regardless of the final outcome of this bloody war
During the second world war, the US sent Japanese Americans to internment camps. During Vietnam, the FBI surveilled and attacked anti-war and civil rights movements. And the “war on terror” led to a massive assault on civil liberties, especially of Muslim and Arab communities.
The longer wars continue, the harder it is to reclaim those lost liberties. More than 20 years after the US invasion of Afghanistan, the 2001 Patriot Act’s attacks on civil liberties remain and US police departments are more militarized than ever.
That reality is all the more true in an acknowledged fragile democracy like Ukraine.
Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Ukraine’s governments have often been marked by corruption and repression. And since Nato began its provocative eastward expansion, Ukrainians have also faced renewed Russian aggression
The US, challenging Russian influence, has backed a set of political players in Ukraine including powerful far-right forces linked to neo-Nazi organizations, who were particularly influential within Ukraine’s military and to a lesser degree within its parliament.
In 2020 alone, Ukraine’s Institute of Mass Information reported 229 free speech violations, including 171 physical attacks against journalists. In 2021 and 2022, Freedom House rated Ukraine at a low 39 on its democracy percentage for nations in transition.
Few countries mobilized for war, whether aggressive or defensive, have not faced losing many of whatever democratic freedoms had previously existed. In February last year, a year before the war, Zelenskiy’s administration banned TV stations, claiming they were part of Russian disinformation, and a month into the invasion banned 11 opposition political parties.
None of that is surprising for a nation at war. But it points to another reason for urgency in ending it: many analysts have already predicted Ukraine faces a long-term war of attrition, with neither achieving full victory. If accurate, what remains of Ukraine’s fragile democracy may not survive regardless of the final outcome.

The best way to ensure strengthened democracy in postwar Ukraine is to end this war as soon as possible, before more Ukrainians are killed, more Ukrainian cities are destroyed, and more of Ukraine’s already imperiled democracy is lost.
That means an urgent search for a diplomatic track. As Ukraine’s primary arms supplier and funder, Washington needs to call for immediate negotiations to begin that process.
the US could help diplomacy gain traction by immediately initiating its own direct talks with Russia on issues shaping bilateral relations between the nuclear giants. They could negotiate reopening all stalled or expired arms control and nuclear disarmament agreements. Washington could clarify that it will lift sanctions on Russia when a ceasefire takes hold.
It could offer to discuss canceling, or at least pausing, work on the provocative new US military base currently under construction in Poland less than 100 miles (161km) from the Russian border.
There are many urgent reasons this war must be ended soon, and protecting the chances for Ukraine’s postwar democracy is only one of them. The war has been a disaster for the global economy, a danger to the environment as governments hunt for more fossil fuels as oil prices rise and a threat to millions facing famine as grain exports dry up. Militarization is rising in Washington DC, across Europe, and around the world. And the threat of a nuclear exchange between the world’s two primary nuclear weapons states has not loomed so close in 60 years.
Any one of those reasons, along with the need to stop the killing of Ukrainians, should be enough to end this war. Together, they demand an urgent call for an immediate ceasefire and negotiations – diplomacy, not escalation, to end this war.

[Ältester der Motten]

Any claim of trying to free your oppressed fellow Russians is exposed as a lie when the same ethnic Russian civilians get indiscriminately killed or sometimes preferentially targeted by your own troops as they try to take over these predominantly ethnic Russian cities, leaving them in ruins and littered with ethnic Russian corpses. Likewise, Russia never had any need to oppose NATO as a threat from the West as cooperation was always on the table from NATO's side. Even inclusion was an option, as Putin himself cluelessly admitted when he revealed the old anecdote about asking NATO if Russia could become a member state. Therefore Putin's war has no respectable basis to stand on. Also note how Putin lied about wanting autonomy for the Russian ethnic parts, as annexation of the territories in question is now officially written law.

It's simply self-important nostalgia for his lost Russian empire. This war does no good to anyone and harm to everyone.

That being said I don't really understand how people cling to diplomacy and compromise after 8 years of only intensifying Russian belligerence, thinking that it's going to lead us anywhere. Clearly the only way out is forward, meaning the functional defeat of either Ukraine or Russia. Only if Russia is spent will talks be possible again. This stinks of Chamberlain's appeasement.

On a sidenote, because it's relevant to several talking points about Russia's role in the UN and the world, and its justification of the war: why do we pretend that the Russian Federation is the sucessor to the Soviet Union? That's like saying Germany is the successor of the EU, if the EU failed and France, Germany and Belgium conspired together to end it. Russia was always just Russia.

[Papay]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/natio...-negotiations/

USA has started pressing Zelenski to be "open to negotiations or risking losing support from allies"

[conon394]

On WaPo story

Not so much

"The Post quotes sources “familiar with the discussions”.
The request was not a bid to force Ukraine into negotiations but an attempt to maintain support in countries worried about Putin’s war’s impact on the world economy and the threat of nuclear war.
The Post quotes one anonymous US official who stated: “Ukraine fatigue is a real thing for some of our partners.”
The White House National Security Council had no immediate comment on the accuracy of the Post report. A State Department spokesperson said: “The Kremlin continues to escalate this war. The Kremlin has demonstrated its unwillingness to seriously engage in negotiations since even before it launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine."

Sound more a fig leaf for US allies getting bored that you a policy can be hard.

----------------

"Tens of thousands of Italians marched through Rome on Saturday calling for peace in Ukraine and urging Italy to stop sending weapons to fight the Russian invasion"

Ahh yes sitting back under the peace and security of NATO with your 1.3% of GDP military so easy to demand some other counter agree to chopped up by Putin reasons.

[Mithradates]

Finally, a light at the end of the tunnel…

Those are the headlights of the oncoming train, sorry dude, Ukraine will not surrender.

"The request by American officials is not aimed at pushing Ukraine to the negotiating table, these people said. Rather, they called it a calculated attempt to ensure the government in Kyiv maintains the support of other nations facing constituencies wary of fueling a war for many years to come."

They only need to look more reasonable than Putin, an easy task.
If you havent figured it out by now, this is Ukraine's Great Patriotic War, they will not concede any territory to Russia.

[Kyriakos]

On WaPo story

Not so much

"The Post quotes sources “familiar with the discussions”.
The request was not a bid to force Ukraine into negotiations but an attempt to maintain support in countries worried about Putin’s war’s impact on the world economy and the threat of nuclear war.
The Post quotes one anonymous US official who stated: “Ukraine fatigue is a real thing for some of our partners.”
The White House National Security Council had no immediate comment on the accuracy of the Post report. A State Department spokesperson said: “The Kremlin continues to escalate this war. The Kremlin has demonstrated its unwillingness to seriously engage in negotiations since even before it launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine."

Sound more a fig leaf for US allies getting bored that you a policy can be hard.

----------------

"Tens of thousands of Italians marched through Rome on Saturday calling for peace in Ukraine and urging Italy to stop sending weapons to fight the Russian invasion"

Ahh yes sitting back under the peace and security of NATO with your 1.3% of GDP military so easy to demand some other counter agree to chopped up by Putin reasons.

Pretty logical to ask that your own government stops sending your own weapons to another country, though - which is what the rally's demand is stated as.

[Mithradates]

Pretty logical to ask that your own government stops sending your own weapons to another country, though - which is what the rally's demand is stated as.

The only real threat to the EU, including Italy, is Russia. Sending these weapons to Ukraine is currently the best investment for EU defense.

[Ältester der Motten]

Denying support to a friendly nation who functions as a vanguard of your values and a litmus test for Russian advances against your de jure Allies in the East is not logical, it is small-minded and short-sighted. I would call it selfish too, but since it's shooting yourself in the foot, it feels odd to talk about it as self-interest.

[Septentrionalis]

The only real threat to the EU, including Italy, is Russia. Sending these weapons to Ukraine is currently the best investment for EU defense.

The protesters should be reminded that unions like EU and NATO may be wrong places for Italy to be in if they no are not willing to show solidarity and support when needed. Italy has been the EU freeloader enough in recent years.

[Ältester der Motten]

Unfortunately the unwillingness to lend help to Ukraine is universally spread across Europe, at least we have plenty of those in Germany too. Partially out of nuclear and world war paranoia, partially out of pacifist idealism, but partially also out of selfish indifference. At the beginning of the war a huge minority of ~44% polled declined support for sending heavy weapons to Ukraine. It's difficult to say how many they are now, but they're still going strong.

[conon394]

@Kyriakos

"Pretty logical to ask that your own government stops sending your own weapons to another country, though - which is what the rally's demand is stated as."

Wow Maybe the US should feel the same way say in Libya. And with a military budget barely over 1% GDP isn't Italy essentially depending on the US or UK or France to be sending them weapons anyway?

https://webcache.googleusercontent.c...=firefox-b-1-d

In any case from the story on Italy... can't help WW2 reference for this


" Look at the facts: sending weapons does not help stop a war, weapons help fuel a war."
I suppose good thing person was no advisor to FDR. Also might add perhaps more topical with both Russia and Italy - Italy sent a fair amount of weapons to Finland back in the day when Russia and issues with knowing where its boarders were. Too bad for Finland Hitler had to stop some the good stuff due to the M-R Pact.

[Cyclops]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/natio...-negotiations/

USA has started pressing Zelenski to be "open to negotiations or risking losing support from allies"

Thats not what the article says.

Meanwhile Putin's "forever" occupation of Kherson seems to be ending after a month.

‘I am staying here’: Kherson residents defy Russian call to evacuate city | Ukraine | The Guardian

Its OK though, the brigands secured the household goods and basic medicines as they fled. Which was what the operation was about, de nazifying establishing GrossRussland defeating Satan petty theft.

[Papay]

Thats not what the article says.

Meanwhile Putin's "forever" occupation of Kherson seems to be ending after a month.

‘I am staying here’: Kherson residents defy Russian call to evacuate city | Ukraine | The Guardian

Its OK though, the brigands secured the household goods and basic medicines as they fled. Which was what the operation was about, de nazifying establishing GrossRussland defeating Satan petty theft.

The article says exactly that which means that USA doesnt have much hope on military lines changing dramatically

[PointOfViewGun]

The article says exactly that which means that USA doesnt have much hope on military lines changing dramatically

Define "dramatically".

[Cyclops]

Will the Great Kherson Maskirovka Fake Withdrawal turn into an actual rout? At this point it looks like Russian forces are demoralised and poorly led, can they actually pull off a fairly standard manoeuvre?

The article says exactly that ...

The article does not say "USA has started pressing Zelenski to be "open to negotiations or risking losing support from allies"", it says "unnamed source claims USA has started pressing Zelenski to "pretend to be open to negotiations or risk losing support from allies"

... which means that USA doesnt have much hope on military lines changing dramatically

Non sequitur from a false premise, I like it. Here's another take for you, "Russia has lost the ability to control events on the battlefield in Ukraine so they are trying to win a propaganda war in the online space in the hope a change in government will lead to les support for Ukraine internationally".

Putin is the equivalent of a guy sneaking into a nightclub to steal drinks and when the bouncers start ejecting him he pisses on the floor and threatens to poo his pants unless he's allowed to stay and be given more free drinks. Throw this bum out.

[Papay]

Define "dramatically".

Ukraine cannot take a big city with force. Perhaps they could take Kherson if Russians evacuated the area but unless they do that, they dont have the manpower to besiege and take slowly a bid city like that in the same way Russians did with Mariupol some months ago. So we might see minor changes here and there but no spectacular change, at least untill the spring of 2023. In the meantime the west must preserve the Kiev regime financially and militarily which, oddly, some people think is better than having your own economy and military.

[Ältester der Motten]

Ukraine couldn't defend itself against the second strongest military in the world, look where that prediction led. You're forgetting Ukraine is fighting against Russia's rag-tag band of rusty cold war MBT, not an actual functioning army. ONly the Bundeswehr might prove an even less challenging enemy on the battlefield with their fake broomsticks for gun barrels.