Measuring Interest in TW: Warhammer

[the_eye]

Some of you may know that for the past sixteen months I've been running my own statistical sampling of Steam data, in the manner of Ars Technica and SteamSpy. Last week Valve made some minor changes to one of their error pages which necessitated a change to my sampling code. Whilst investigating what had changed I noticed that I can see Steam wishlists and lists of followed games on public profiles, so here's a graph of the number of people who have wishlisted or are following (or both) a selection of upcoming games including Total War: Warhammer, with Total War: Attila and Total War: Rome II thrown in as well for comparisons sake. I'd caution about reading too much into these figures at this stage, but I plan to keep updating them and hopefully they'll reveal something of how well (or badly) Total War: Warhammer is being received prior to release.

Important note: I introduced a small bug into my analysis code when I updated it, whereby the new error pages were not included in the count of sampled pages. This resulted in the previous graph I posted showing figures approximately 25% higher than they should have been. The new graph contains corrected figures.

[Sharpe]

Two large fanbases combine for what could be the best strategy game in years, nothe surprised it has a lot of interest.

I'll definitely pre order closer to the time, just so I can play as Chaos.

[Fredrin]

Two large fanbases combine for what could be the best strategy game in years, nothe surprised it has a lot of interest.

I'll definitely pre order closer to the time, just so I can play as Chaos.

Yeah, this game's gonna be a monster. I wonder how much those figures will creep up closer to XCOM 2 and Division the closer it gets to release. Anyone care to have a stab at what they predict first year sales will be?

I'm also interested to see how close Attila and Rome 2 are in this chart, considering the latter massively outsold the former.

[Woody0]

Yeah, this game's gonna be a monster. I wonder how much those figures will creep up closer to XCOM 2 and Division the closer it gets to release. Anyone care to have a stab at what they predict first year sales will be?

I'm also interested to see how close Attila and Rome 2 are in this chart, considering the latter massively outsold the former.

If people do the same thing I do they add games to their wish list/following to get notified when the games get released or on sale.

Attila is on one of my list and has been since it was announced. I will not be buying it until the price drops to around $20 and DLC are included. Simply because it seems to me it is just an expansion for Rome 2.

So the graphs above do show it seems people are more interested in TW:WH then are/were in Rome 2, but does not reflect how many people will buy on release or even at all. As for myself I have already decided to wait a year or more after release before buying WH. I may change my mind if the game turns out awesome and the best TW. I am assuming that CA will try to milk us with DLC and much rather get the game on sale bundled with DLC.

[Sharpe]

What are the Division and Xcom and why are they still popular?

[Ganossa]

I guess pre-orders do not come up on that chart?

[HigoChumbo]

What are the Division and Xcom and why are they still popular?

Tom Clancy's: The Division is a cover based, 3d person shooter RPG set in a post apocalyptic New York made by the creators of Ground Control and World in Conflict. It's also the only only game ever whose main selling point is the ability to close cab's doors in real time.



Xcom: Enemy Within is probably the best game I've played in the past few years. It's an isometric, turn-based, tactical strategy game in which you lead a squad of secret agents against an alien invasion. Its sequel, Xcom2 is the same but in a sort of guerrilla resistance after the aliens take over earth and brainwash the population.




Both games are unreleased, and hands down the two games I'm more interested in for 2016, alongside Warhammer, although I'm a bit sceptic about all of them yet.

[Steph]

XCOM is a very good game, with a simple interface, easy to learn, but it offers fun tactical action against aliens. You lead an international team who must fight invading aliens, study their technology, adpt ti to your own purpose, and beat the aliens back. The atmosphere is very good.
And it's a sequel of a much older game that was also very nice when it was released years ago, so there's some nostalgia here.

And XCOM2 is a sequel, where the aliens are supposed to have won the first war, and you are now part of the resistance. Similar gameplau, but they seems to have removed all the quirks, improved gameplay and graphics, customization, and modding support right from the start. Most recent news: Firaxis, the editor of XCOM2, has made an agreement with the team behind one of the most popular mod, so they can prepare several mods available at day one!

CA could take some example here I believe.

[HigoChumbo]

CA could take some example here I believe.

Not just in mod support, also in game design.

XCOM is actually one of the titles in my list of games from which I believe Total War could adapt ideas. (shameless self-promotion here)



XCOM forces you to think, to use your resources strategically, to plan your battles in advance, to adapt to each situation, to improvise... I've never felt the thrill I feel when playing XCOM in any TW game. To me it's really no wonder that people are more excited about that game, even with the huge push fantasy/Warhammer gives to Total War.

[Stark_7]

If people do the same thing I do they add games to their wish list/following to get notified when the games get released or on sale.

Attila is on one of my list and has been since it was announced. I will not be buying it until the price drops to around $20 and DLC are included. Simply because it seems to me it is just an expansion for Rome 2.

So the graphs above do show it seems people are more interested in TW:WH then are/were in Rome 2, but does not reflect how many people will buy on release or even at all. As for myself I have already decided to wait a year or more after release before buying WH. I may change my mind if the game turns out awesome and the best TW. I am assuming that CA will try to milk us with DLC and much rather get the game on sale bundled with DLC.

Same here. I had TW:WH and A:TW on my wishlist to catch them on a sale but took them both off around the time of the Chaos warrior announcement. I won't forget about the games because I'll hear about the all the rants/rage/arguments/"I told you so"s there'll be one way or another around release time. If it's good, I'll wait for a sale a year or so after because the DLC still bothers me. If not, I'll forget about it* and focus on better games as I did with Atilla.

*though I'll log on to here and YouTube to see the rage!

[Blastoise Groudon]

Those are pretty decent numbers so far I presume. I say it will sell at least 500,000 copies and probably much more.

[Markas]

XCOM forces you to think, to use your resources strategically, to plan your battles in advance, to adapt to each situation, to improvise... I've never felt the thrill I feel when playing XCOM in any TW game.

Hmmm I wouldn't go that far. X-Com's lack of procedural generation meant you can easily approach the repeated maps with an advantage off the bat. Personally I found the whole game almost entirely devoid of surprises and waaaay too scripted and lacking sandbox elements that made the original so good. There's the one tech path thing as well. I've heard the sequel remedies both of these so I hope it's an improvement on the original's campaign.

To me it's really no wonder that people are more excited about that game, even with the huge push fantasy/Warhammer gives to Total War.

Probably also that X-Com2 is released in 10 days and Warhammer TW 3 months, although to be honest as Warhammer TW was announced just before X-Com 2 I would have expected a bigger level of interest. Although now I think of it's 40k that seems to get all the love.

[Red Dox]

In terms of interest, I have a higher interest in XCOm2 then Total Warhammer, because the release dates are different. Also, if the majority of people complaining can be believed, even if Total Warhammer releases in April the first month is probably bug ridden and not playable More time for XCOM2 then
My personal interest in The Division was high, when they released first infos and videos 2014. Since then they dropped the ball with long periods of no information and the usual "ubisoft" PR. At the moment I still wait for it but interest is very low and I await the reviews before buying. Remembering the AC:Unity release and underwhelming Watch Dogs, I just need confirmation first that this "MMO thingie" will run decent. And regarding the OPs data, why on earth should anyone wishlist Division on Steam? As Ubisoft game it will utilize Uplay. So having it on Steam just means I have to run Steam and Uplay at the same time to play...


If someone does not know XCOM yet and wants to take a look, there would be the Humble option until next week.
https://www.humblebundle.com/
$1 for the base game is a gift. $10 for the Enemy within addon (which is a really good addition to the game) is a fair price. Everything else in the bundle is just additional goodis for the pile of shame
And for XCOM Mods, "Long War" is one fine example how modding should be done: http://www.nexusmods.com/xcom/mods/88/?

-----Red Dox

[HigoChumbo]

Probably also that X-Com2 is released in 10 days and Warhammer TW 3 months,

In terms of interest, I have a higher interest in XCOm2 then Total Warhammer, because the release dates are different.

I don't know, I don't spend 50 bucks in games every three months. To me those three games (Division, XCOM, Warhammer) are pretty much competing for my money.

And it's not about which game I'm more interested in, but about which game I feel I have to buy day one. Now that would put XCOM2 in the bottom of my list, since I'll enjoy it the same at release as 8 months after release, and it's not a good situation for Warhammer either, since despite the "novelty" bonus is still a single player game which does not only remain as enjoyable a year after release, but, specially in the case of Total War, it often improves vastly (added content, fixed gamebreaking bugs, optimization, discounts, etc).

The Division in the other hand strikes me as the kind of game which you want to play since day one, when the mystery about it is still fresh and when players have still not got ridiculously good at it, or have just quit leaving the servers partly depleted.



If you add to this that I need a GPU and that it looks that the new gen GPUs are going to be released AFTER those games, then waiting seems the better option. As of today, the only things that could make me buy Warhammer over The Division would be that the Division ended up being another Destiny, or that I really wanted to do an early review on Warhammer.

(By the way, it's ridiculous how much the poor new GPU/Game release date schedule is going to condition my game purchases this year. Despite my high interest in those games, I might not buy anything at all until the next-gen gpus are released).

I just need confirmation first that this "MMO thingie" will run decent.

With the absurd amounts of graphic downgrade it's getting, I would be surprised if it didn't. Seems to be running fine on a XBOX One, which is the equivalent of a mid-tier pc.

If someone does not know XCOM yet and wants to take a look, there would be the Humble option until next week.
https://www.humblebundle.com/
$1 for the base game is a gift. $10 for the Enemy within addon (which is a really good addition to the game) is a fair price. Everything else in the bundle is just additional goodis for the pile of shame

Civilization V is great. And so was the also included Civ IV, for those who don't like the new direction of the series. As for the rest, I recall Pirates! as a decent time waster, and while the bundle is definately one of the best values I've seen in a long time, I don't like how it's designed to make you purchase the "Brave New World" expansion separately (and also to get people interested in the upcoming XCOM2, but that's legit, and the offered games are still dirt cheap). XCOM+Expansion plus CiV5+Expansion for 10 euros is already a great deal.

[Blastoise Groudon]

It would be awesome to see it hit 1 million + copies though.

[Fredrin]

It would be awesome to see it hit 1 million + copies though.

Considering the Dawn of war series sold over 7 million copies by 2013 and this game will be incorporating some of the Total War crowd, I'd be surprised if it hadn't sold 2-3 million units by the end the time the trilogy and all related DLC has been rolled out.

[Taskeen]

How can someone not know what XCOM is, its based on the original classic:



Also there is the more recent Xenonauts, a more direct successor:

[Mabzie55]

Personally I'm into the historical thing much more than the fantasy thing, although I am into both.

But the reason I play total war is because of the historical settings. I just have very little interest in fantasy strategy-- I like my fantasy games to be more RPGS and that type of thing.

Anyway given that, and the fact that I have a limited amount of money on which to spend on games-- I'll be passing on all the fantasy Total War titles like Warhammer. (Unless they make a Star Wars TW... that'd be a different story.)

Gonna be sticking to the classic history-based titles.

[Ichon]

I have Attila and AoC wishlisted just to see when the price drops. I wasn't even going to buy it but the positive reviews for AoC persuaded me that I'll probably get it as well the time period- some decent mods will surely be made for it and that will prolong its replay value. However even with the best prices I can find right now at less than $30 for both Attila and AoC more likely I'll wait for a Gold or GotY edition or some other bundle since I have little priority for it until more mods are developed.

X Com is one of the best franchise reboots in awhile and really there are only 4 games I am following right now since Witcher 3 was released;

1. Master of Orion http://masteroforion.eu/intro

2. X Com 2 https://xcom.com/

3. Warhammer TW

4. Cyber Punk 2077 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P99qJGrPNLs

My plan for Warhammer TW is also based on next gen GPU's and more details on Cyber Punk 2077 which is my most anticipated release but likely a year away or more. I'll hope that Warhammer TW is added to a GPU bundle that I can make part of my next upgrade.

[the_eye]

I have updated the original post with new (and corrected) data. Please note that Rise of the Tomb Raider was released on the 28th January and XCOM 2 is due out on the 5th February.