Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

[Heathen Hammer]

Mariupol and Bucha, to name just a few.

Naming cities does not constitute evidence for war crimes.

[saamohod]

Naming cities does not constitute evidence for war crimes.

Low effort trolling, just as I've suspected. But every little bit helps in your case I guess.

[Heathen Hammer]

Low effort trolling, just as I've suspected. But every little bit helps in your case I guess.

Asking for evidence to your outrageous claims isn't "trolling".

[PointOfViewGun]

Asking for evidence to your outrageous claims isn't "trolling".

It is if they have been well documented and abundantly shared even in this very thread you're participating in. The Russians are even seen on video firing on civilians. Your questioning is like asking people to prove that USA participated in the WWII.

[Heathen Hammer]

It is if they have been well documented and abundantly shared

Again, so far all we've seen were claims made by interested parties on both sides. This or that government saying something is not evidence in on itself.

The Russians are even seen on video firing on civilians.

I'm sure you'll have a link showing them firing at civilians.

[PointOfViewGun]

Again, so far all we've seen were claims made by interested parties on both sides. This or that government saying something is not evidence in on itself.
I'm sure you'll have a link showing them firing at civilians.

Nope. Thanks to this nasty little thing called technology we even had access to primary sources. From Russian soldiers firing at random civilians (WARNING: contains video footage of civilians getting shot in the back) to Russian armored vehicle getting out of its way to run over a small civilian car. These were all posted multiple times on pretty much every single medium, including this thread. We're not discussing what the Ukrainian government claims Russians did. We are discussing what we saw Russians did. Deliberately lying about what people argue as you are doing is not a good argument.

[Heathen Hammer]

The car video doesn't show whose side's vehicle that was.
The video from car dealership lacks context, as you can see both Ukrainian and Russian troops in the area. Could be deliberate, could be that they were caught in crossfire. If it was in fact, Russians, then yes, it was a crime, but it doesn't really go with Vanoi's initial claim, when he said that what Russia is doing is worse then what Ukraine is doing. Shooting at civilians is bad, firing cluster munitions at residential areas, which is what Ukraine is doing, is also bad.

[Vanoi]

Reports from 2021 are certainly not "years ago", grammatically speaking the correct term is "from a year ago", after all years imply plural and year is singular.

Last time I checked you didn't post a source for that quote except in the previous reports where against n the reports are again years old. It's funny enough not changing what I said either.

[Mithradates]

Visual evidence proves Russia lost at least four Su-30SMs and seven Su-24M(R)s at Saky airbase.
It was home to the 43rd aviation regiment, which lost 80% of equipment in this attack. This attack single-handedly destroyed the entirety of Black Sea fleet aviation.

The Russian MoD claims it suffered no losses in aircraft.



There is a massive traffic jam by the Kerch Strait Bridge as Russians desperately try to leave Crimea.

[PointOfViewGun]

The car video doesn't show whose side's vehicle that was.
The video from car dealership lacks context, as you can see both Ukrainian and Russian troops in the area. Could be deliberate, could be that they were caught in crossfire. If it was in fact, Russians, then yes, it was a crime, but it doesn't really go with Vanoi's initial claim, when he said that what Russia is doing is worse then what Ukraine is doing. Shooting at civilians is bad, firing cluster munitions at residential areas, which is what Ukraine is doing, is also bad.

With such incredibly illogical argumentation you can try to discredit anything. Thankfully, we know better. However, in your attempt to hit back you simply managed to highlight the hypocrisy in your approach as you use a source to hit back on Ukrainian forces that you already disregard when its against Russian forces. The funny bit is that you had to go back to 2014 to come up with an example.

From your own esteemed source:

Ukraine: Russian Missile Kills Civilians in Shopping Center
Ukraine: Russian Landmine Use Endangers Civilians
Ukraine: Torture, Disappearances in Occupied South
Russia: Forcible Disappearances of Ukrainian Civilians
Ukraine: Russian Strikes Killed Scores of Civilians in Chernihiv
Ukraine: Executions, Torture During Russian Occupation
Ukraine: Russian Forces Fired On Civilian Vehicles
Ukraine: Russian Forces’ Trail of Death in Bucha
Ukraine: Apparent War Crimes in Russia-Controlled Areas
Ukraine: Russia Uses Banned Antipersonnel Landmines
Ukraine: Russian Assault Kills Fleeing Civilians

Your own source proves Vanoi right beyond any doubt. You can only object to him about how what Russia is doing is not worse, but that its much much worse than what Ukraine is doing.

[reavertm]

Visual evidence proves Russia lost at least four Su-30SMs and seven Su-24M(R)s at Saky airbase.
It was home to the 43rd aviation regiment, which lost 80% of equipment in this attack. This attack single-handedly destroyed the entirety of Black Sea fleet aviation.

The Russian MoD claims it suffered no losses in aircraft.



There is a massive traffic jam by the Kerch Strait Bridge as Russians desperately try to leave Crimea.

According to some articles here in Poland, Ukraine allegedly denied attacking certain targets in Crimea, stating that it was sabotage conducted by partisants/guerilla. Other anonymous Ukrainian source said it was special forces operation. It seems Ukrainians want to either cause or make the most out of confusion regarding their operational capabilities.

[Cyclops]

So my limited understanding is the Russians, after the initial debacle (Kiev "feint" etc) which cost some valuable assets, then ground out some hard fought gains with superior firepower, but are now facing pressure, probably from combined logistics erosion and specialist weapons including but not limited to the vaunted HIMARS.

This is a losing game for Russia and Ukraine, but neither likes the prospect of blinking. What a wretched brigand Putin is for starting a fight he lacks the strength to finish. Neither side are angels but he bears the greatest blame for wrecking two countries, and his incompetence is criminal at this point. The glory days where Trump grovelled at his feet are gone.

I think Its the end for Vlad.

[Sar1n]

I'm looking at sat photos of the Saki base. I'm not an expert but it looks to me like there are three large craters along the western side of the complex (presuming the photos are properly oriented), corresponding to what appears to be smaller storage facilities or piles of material ready to use next to the planes in the open on the "before" photo. Two of them don't appear to be connected to the scorched area, but third seem to be a center from which the fire spread mostly in east/northeast direction, damaging multiple aircraft and burning down at least one building on the northeast side.

So what happened?
Option A. Ivan with a cigarette. Russia claims this version, but it seems unlikely to me. The two craters outside of the scorched area are incompatible with this version.
Option B. Long range missiles. This begs the questions, how, and what was air defense doing? The base is some 200 km away from the frontlines. To my knowledge, the only things in Ukrainian arsenal capable of such strike are either Grom-2, which is supposed to be still in development, or modified Neptune missile. Or US slipped some ATACMS missiles for HIMARS to Ukraine without anyone knowing. Still, the accuracy is uncanny, even for these systems. However...the base was protected by two S-400 battalions and other medium and short range SAM, plus proper radar equipment. Those should be able to intercept, or at least detect and attempt to intercept, any such incoming missiles. But the air defense remained silent.
Option C. Sabotage. Someone got in, planted several explosives at key places and got out without anyone knowing until the fireworks. Ukraine DoD suggested the work of local resistance, but the flawless execution points more toward special forces. I can see why, in this case, neither side would want to admit this possibility. Ukraine doesn't want to compromise its operatives and Russia doesn't want to admit that Ukrainian forces operate so deep behind the frontline with impunity, for morale reasons.

[dogukan]

Ukraine is likely planning to turn the Kherson into a massive killzone while making defending the area for Russia extremely costly.

The Crimean airbase cigaratte accident was magnificient. I am still in awe. That is some serious damage, coming to a good solid second place in the "most damaging attack" lists after Moskva sunk itself. Seriously, I don't know why Kremlin thinks being incompetent is better than admitting enemy used amazing weapons to hit them.

Russia will either have to do a psychologically devastating tactical retreat or risk losing a lot of equipment, manpower and even more morale. Ukraine seems to balancing the initiative throughout the contact lines following the focused fighting in Donbas.

[Sar1n]

Ukraine is likely planning to turn the Kherson into a massive killzone while making defending the area for Russia extremely costly.

The Crimean airbase cigaratte accident was magnificient. I am still in awe. That is some serious damage, coming to a good solid second place in the "most damaging attack" lists after Moskva sunk itself. Seriously, I don't know why Kremlin thinks being incompetent is better than admitting enemy used amazing weapons to hit them.

Russia will either have to do a psychologically devastating tactical retreat or risk losing a lot of equipment, manpower and even more morale. Ukraine seems to balancing the initiative throughout the contact lines following the focused fighting in Donbas.

Kherson will most likely get cut off and left to simmer until they surrender. Ukraine can't assault the Zaporizhzhia plant directly when the Russians are threatening to blow it up.

Compared to Moskva, I believe this strike was even more damaging in practical terms. Compared to the aircraft destroyed at Saki, Moskva had more limited capability to strike targets within Ukraine.

[PointOfViewGun]

What made Moskva so significant was the loss of major AA capability that cruiser carried. It's loss made other ships with missile capabilities easy targets. That's why the Russians no longer come too close to the shores.

[Sar1n]

What made Moskva so significant was the loss of major AA capability that cruiser carried. It's loss made other ships with missile capabilities easy targets. That's why the Russians no longer come too close to the shores.

Given the performance on its last day, Russia might be actually better off without the false sense of security it provided.

[z3n]

Last time I checked you didn't post a source for that quote except in the previous reports where against n the reports are again years old. It's funny enough not changing what I said either.

I'm glad you checked the reports I posted. The quote is logically from the 2021 and 2018 reports I previously linked and the source OHCHR was included in the quote (that's the official UN organization for human rights).


Here we see in the 2021 report (linked before) that depravity did not let up:

Among Government actors, the most common perpetrator of arbitrary
detention, torture and ill-treatment was the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU).

30 April 2021, 35 (18 men and 17 women), that is 4.6 per cent (4.3 per cent of male
detainees and 15.2 per cent of female detainees), were subjected to conflict-related
sexual violence (rapes, electric shocks to genitals, kicks on genitals, forced nudity,
unwanted touching, threats of sexual violence to the victims and their female
relatives).
48. If extrapolated to the estimated total number of conflict-related arbitrary
detentions by Government actors (2,300), the number of victims of conflict-related
sexual violence could be estimated at 140-170, including 80-100 men and 60-70
women. Many times, it is difficult for survivors of sexual violence to come forward
and share their experiences due to fear of stigma or reprisals. Therefore, the actual
figures could be higher.

As a thought experiment I just calculated the number of months since April 30th 2021 (the date listed in the report for those tortures by the Ukrainian SBU), it has been 15 months. Or 1 year and 3 months. Even generously assuming you wish to round the months to the nearest year, it still works out to be a year. Therefore, I'd think it's fair to say the report happened a year ago, not years ago.


Btw, just for additional clarity the year is 2022 and date August 11th. Hence the calculation being from April 30th 2021 to August 11th 2022.

[PointOfViewGun]

Im glad you checked the reports I posted. The quote is logically from the 2021 and 2018 reports I previously linked and the source OHCHR was included in the quote (that's the official UN organization for human rights).

Here we see in the 2021 report (linked before) that depravity did not let up:

This is quite a deceptive post. I guess there is a reason why you shied away from linking to the report.

An entire region is out of scope of the report:

Cases of arbitrary detention, torture and ill-treatment in the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol, Ukraine, occupied by the Russian Federation that took place following the occupation and are still ongoing are out of the scope of the present report.

It's not an old report you say because of this:

This thematic report by the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) examines: 1) the scale of detention in the context of the armed conflict in eastern Ukraine by Government actors and armed groups and other actors in territory controlled by the self-proclaimed ‘Donetsk people’s republic’ and the self-proclaimed ‘Luhansk people’s republic’ from 14 April 2014 to 30 April 2021

Yet, also from the report:

OHCHR estimates that some 60 per cent of conflict-related detentions occurred during the first two years of the conflict, in 2014 and 2015: approximately 2,000 detentions by Government actors, and approximately 3,000 detentions by armed groups and other actors in territory controlled by the self-proclaimed ‘republics’. From 2016 to 2021, annual numbers of conflict-related detentions substantially decreased both in Government-controlled territory and in territory controlled by self-proclaimed ‘republics’, averaging several hundred per year.

OHCHR estimates that about 60 per cent of all conflict-related detentions by Government actors from 2014 to 2021 (approximately 2,300) were arbitrary, and the majority of them occurred during the initial period of the conflict (2014-2015).

From 2016, the prevalence of conflict-related arbitrary detention by Government actors substantially decreased.

So, yeah. You're banking on old incidents.

[z3n]

This is quite a deceptive post. I guess there is a reason why you shied away from linking to the report.

An entire region is out of scope of the report:


It's not an old report you say because of this:


Yet, also from the report:




So, yeah. You're banking on old incidents.

What exactly is years old about the date of April 30th 2021?