Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

[Stario]

I see that most of what I've missed lately is just Stario's posts being destroyed more brutally...

Cool story bro! 😎

[AqD]

The Ukrainian men fleeing the draft:-BBC World Service Documentaries

They have every rights to, since death is certainly worse than living in Russia for some, even though we don't have to receive them.


I'm just wondering why we can't easily recruit millions of mercenaries from poor countries to fight for them. If Putin can, we can. We have a lot more money and a lot more weapons and we keep our words instead of reporting the dead as deserters.

[Coughdrop addict]

They have every rights to, since death is certainly worse than living in Russia for some, even though we don't have to receive them.


I'm just wondering why we can't easily recruit millions of mercenaries from poor countries to fight for them. If Putin can, we can. We have a lot more money and a lot more weapons and we keep our words instead of reporting the dead as deserters.

Three main reasons:

1. Mercenaries aren't all that great. Unlike a nation that can spend $billions on their military, mercenaries must often provide their own equipment and training, and so will almost always been less well-equipped and trained than professional citizen-soldiers. While their employer could provide equipment and training, at that point he might as well be using conscripts who might actually have patriotic feelings for the nation.

2. Mercenaries can be unreliable. Historically, mercenaries have a often switched sides when their employer appears to be losing. After all, if it looks like their employer isn't going to be around to pay them it makes no sense for the mercenary to stick around. Even worse, it is far from unknown for mercenaries to take bribes from the opposing force to sabotage their employer or turn on him at the worst possible moment.

3. Mercenaries can pose a danger to the host nation. Historically, nations that rely to much on mercenaries have often had to deal with a mercenary leader realizing that his forces are stronger than his employer's, and that everything his employer has could be his. This inevitably leads to coups, civil wars, and chaos and violence consuming the nation and often spreading to it's neighbors.

[Kyriakos]

If things continue like this, Ukraine will be forced to abandon Kharkov.
I doubt Russia is interested in actually annexing Kharkov*, but it can use it as a distraction in a move against Odessa- which if it manages to control, will mean a landlocked Ukraine=the end.
*if so, it will have even fewer issues with literally leveling that city.

[sumskilz]

If things continue like this, Ukraine will be forced to abandon Kharkov.

If by that, you mean Ukraine might want to consider evacuating the civilian population, then maybe, but if you’re suggesting that Ukraine is in danger of losing Kharkiv in the foreseeable future, then no. The Russian offensive seems to have been blunted. The Russians are now, at best, advancing at a snail’s pace with heavy causalities, as they are elsewhere, while Ukraine is starting to receive large amounts of aid that they have been lacking over the last several months.

For the Russian northern offensive to be effective, even as a distraction, they will likely have to redirect three times as much resources toward it as the Ukrainians do. Considering the Russians hardly seem to have enough resources to make quick headway on any other front, I can’t see how this would be advantageous for them.

[AqD]

Three main reasons:

1. Mercenaries aren't all that great. Unlike a nation that can spend $billions on their military, mercenaries must often provide their own equipment and training, and so will almost always been less well-equipped and trained than professional citizen-soldiers. While their employer could provide equipment and training, at that point he might as well be using conscripts who might actually have patriotic feelings for the nation.

2. Mercenaries can be unreliable. Historically, mercenaries have a often switched sides when their employer appears to be losing. After all, if it looks like their employer isn't going to be around to pay them it makes no sense for the mercenary to stick around. Even worse, it is far from unknown for mercenaries to take bribes from the opposing force to sabotage their employer or turn on him at the worst possible moment.

3. Mercenaries can pose a danger to the host nation. Historically, nations that rely to much on mercenaries have often had to deal with a mercenary leader realizing that his forces are stronger than his employer's, and that everything his employer has could be his. This inevitably leads to coups, civil wars, and chaos and violence consuming the nation and often spreading to it's neighbors.

1. NATO have money. Even with willing conscripts, the lives of our future members are far more valuable and shouldn't be spent needlessly

2. NATO have more money than Russia. There are many forms of payment that can ensure their temporary loyalty, for example supporting their entire families and whole villages, life insurance and disability insurance, EU scholarships for their children, etc. The poorer their countries are the easier for us to support.

3. Ukrainian forces would still be present, but kept away from most dangerous missions.

[Kyriakos]

If by that, you mean Ukraine might want to consider evacuating the civilian population, then maybe, but if you’re suggesting that Ukraine is in danger of losing Kharkiv in the foreseeable future, then no. The Russian offensive seems to have been blunted. The Russians are now, at best, advancing at a snail’s pace with heavy causalities, as they are elsewhere, while Ukraine is starting to receive large amounts of aid that they have been lacking over the last several months.

For the Russian northern offensive to be effective, even as a distraction, they will likely have to redirect three times as much resources toward it as the Ukrainians do. Considering the Russians hardly seem to have enough resources to make quick headway on any other front, I can’t see how this would be advantageous for them.

Assuming Kharkov will be evacuated, it will then be leveled. This isn't as early in the war as Melitopol, nor do you have (afaik) something similar to the Azov battalion there. Russia won't look into incorporating the city or rebuild it.

[mishkin]

1. NATO have money. Even with willing conscripts, the lives of our future members are far more valuable and shouldn't be spent needlessly

2. NATO have more money than Russia. There are many forms of payment that can ensure their temporary loyalty, for example supporting their entire families and whole villages, life insurance and disability insurance, EU scholarships for their children, etc. The poorer their countries are the easier for us to support.

3. Ukrainian forces would still be present, but kept away from most dangerous missions.

You are saying that the lives of people from non-Western countries are less valuable than those of Ukrainians and Europeans and that they should be purchaswd as canon fodder. It is an abhorrent, totally amoral message. I almost prefer when you talked about dropping atomic bombs on Moscow. It was outrageous, but less racist and exploitative.

[Kyriakos]

Mercs are even worse than the regular army in regards to how they treat enemies (including civilians). Basically they are murderous scum, and used by countries that couldn't care less about any ethics.

[Ludicus]

If by that, you mean Ukraine might want to consider evacuating the civilian population, then maybe, but if you’re suggesting that Ukraine is in danger of losing Kharkiv in the foreseeable future, then no.

For now, it seems that Ukraine is not in danger of losing Kharkiv. It's a distraction- or not. Anyway, Zelensky is worried. Zelenskyy warns of Russian advances, Kharkiv strike death

Zelenskyy has warned of increased Russian military activity near Ukraine's northern border…Speaking from Kharkiv, he highlighted that Russian troops are preparing for intensified offensive actions, particularly around the Sumy region.

According to an report by Ukrainian anti-corruption researcher Martyna Boguslavets,Chairman of the Anti-corruption Center "Mezha", published in the Kyiv-based Ukraina Pravda. Boguslavets’ report is based on public documents, report

Where are the fortifications? Kharkiv OVA paid millions to fictitious companies.
MONDAY, MAY 13, 2024,

Hundreds of millions of hryvnias have probably been stolen from the construction of fortifications in the Kharkiv region, where the [Russians are] now actively advancing. Multi-million dollar contracts for the construction of fortifications, for which a total of 7 billion hryvnias [$173 million] were spent there, were transferred by the Kharkiv OVA [regional military adminsitration] to front companies of avatars.
In particular, the Department of Housing and Communal Services (ZhKG) and the fuel and energy complex of Kharkiv OVA concluded direct contracts for the supply of wood for fortifications with companies with signs of fictitiousness.

For 270 million [approx $6 million] for wood, information about which is classified, contracts were concluded with FOP Chaus I.O., LLC "Hertz Industry", LLC "Satisbud", LLC "ATT BUILD" and LLC "DEREVOOBROBNE PIDPRIEMSTVO VOSHOD".

All of them started making millions immediately within a few months of signing up. Classic - under direct contracts and without competitive procurement.
It so happened that the department of the Kharkiv OVA for defense procurement chose newly registered anonymous firms and private enterprises. Moreover, the owners of these firms do not resemble successful businessmen and businesswomen - they have dozens of court cases, from whiskey theft to domestic violence against a husband and mother, some of them are deprived of parental rights and have had enforcement proceedings for bank loans.

Another interesting detail - it seems that these beneficiaries do not even know that they are millionaires. After all, they continue to work in shifts "in the fields" and factories.

Once again: in OVA, direct contracts for wood for fortifications have been concluded with companies whose "owners" do not even know that they are making millions. This is how military information is classified.
"Secret" avatars of Kharkiv OVA
It is obvious that contractors for military deals were carefully sought - people who are not rich, with a number of court cases and debts. Some of them are even related to each other.

The scheme started with FOP Chaus Ihor Olegovych. Three months after registration, the OVA department concludes direct contracts with him for the supply of wood worth millions of hryvnias.
It is interesting that in July 2023, when Chaus just registered the FOP, he had enforcement proceedings for a fine from the police. Earlier, he was found guilty of stealing a pint of Jack Daniels from ATB. He served 100 hours of community service for the stolen whiskey. A successful businessman from the bad 2010s
The "successful businesswomen" scheme was continued. Both are from the city of Kamianske, Dnipropetrovsk region.

The first is Victoria Smolyak, owner of Hertz Industry LLC. The company was registered in June 2023, and within a few months it began to earn millions from wood. Again, under direct contracts. In less than a year, the company changes four managers, which is also a sign of fictitiousness.

Mrs. Smolyak has not only a limited liability company, but also 5 enforcement proceedings for recovery from banks, courts for evasion of parental duties. A drunk woman committed domestic violence against her mother. Currently, she works at the Dnipro metallurgical plant.
Not very similar to the owner of a successful company that earned 116 million [$2.9 million] from the OVA department in 9 months?

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The second businesswoman is Natalia Koval. LLC "Satisbud" is registered on it three days after the registration of "Hertz Industry". Another successful company, through which more than [$1.3 million] are finnele.
The owner of the company also has a bunch of court cases, in particular, regarding the deprivation of parental rights, being in a public place in a drunken state, committing domestic violence against her husband. As we learned, the woman now works in shifts in the fields.

It is interesting that both "Hertz Industry" LLC and "Satisbud" LLC have the same director - Dmytro Knorozov. It is expected, and he also has enforcement proceedings, where he acts as a debtor.
Through the following companies - "ATT BUD" and "WOOD PROCESSING ENTERPRISE VOSHOD" the Department of Housing and Urban Development of the Kharkiv Oblast is chasing away millions. Their owners and managers are connected to more than 30 more recently established companies with a wide range of activities.

According to this scheme, the naked eye can see how someone, being a member of the government offices, mercilessly registers new companies, using for this purpose people who, due to the circumstances, may not be aware of this. And this someone continues to make money on blood.

Ideally, this should become useful information for law enforcement agencies and further exposure of fictitious companies that steal millions from the Armed Forces. After all, most of these dozens of companies are currently dormant and are probably standing by for further participation in schemes for withdrawing funds into the shadows and tax evasion.

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A Swiss summit for an unlikely peace in Ukraine- Le Monde

Although the meeting is unlikely to result in any concrete progress, it will be an opportunity for Bern to improve its image.
It's hard to find a more picturesque setting. A few Art Nouveau buildings stand on a meadow so green it almost hurts the eyes, overlooking an Alpine lake whose waters can't quite decide between turquoise and emerald green. The Bürgenstock resort (in the canton of Nidwalden, central Switzerland) offers an unparalleled view of Switzerland's most winding body of water, the Lac des Quatre-Cantons, which English-speaking tourists, the first foreign visitors, prefer to call Lake Lucerne.
The 60 hectares of this timeless, carefree estate are an emblematic part of the Swiss imagination. An editorialist in the newspaper Le Temps described it as "part Grand Budapest Hotel, part Palm Springs neighborhood and part vacation village; part stopover on the Grand Tour [a long trip around Europe made by privileged young people], from Konrad Adenauer to Audrey Hepburn, and part school excursion destination for the little Swiss of yesteryear

[Roma_Victrix]

Mercs are even worse than the regular army in regards to how they treat enemies (including civilians). Basically they are murderous scum, and used by countries that couldn't care less about any ethics.

Plus they tend to bite back hard at their handlers if they feel that they aren't being treated right or paid sufficiently. It was as true in ancient Carthage (with the Mercenary War) as it is in more recent modern times with the Wagner Group and their ill-fated march to Moscow that earned them Putin's ire. This minor rebellion was nevertheless a serious internal challenge to Putin's regime. It's not an exact repeat of what happened in previous mercenary led coups, but if history doesn't exactly repeat itself, it certainly rhymes.

AqD's suggestion that Ukraine should use a bunch of mercenaries from developing countries is also a gross idea. I'm with Mishkin on that one. Russia already does that sort of thing for Ukraine, using people from Nepal, India, Cuba, Syria, Sudan, Mali, and even China. A middle aged former PLA soldier fighting for Russia in Ukraine recently uploaded a trending video on Chinese social media revealing how brutal and bleak it is on the frontlines for Russian soldiers as well as foreign guns for hire like him. It's not popular and would hurt his political support, but at some point Zelenskyy is probably going to have to draft younger Ukrainians below age 25 if he intends to hold the Ukrainian territory still in his possession (not very realistic for them to retake Crimea or the lost parts of the Donbas at this point against Russia's mighty war machine).

[Laser101]

Mercs are even worse than the regular army in regards to how they treat enemies (including civilians). Basically they are murderous scum, and used by countries that couldn't care less about any ethics.

To be fair, historically most regular armies don't really care about ethics either. Although professional regular armies as such are a relatively recent invention for the most part anyway.

[Ludicus]

To be fair, historically most regular armies don't really care about ethics either.

Quite true.
Last year, Russia was rightly acused of... Russia's use of prisoners to feed war machine
When necesssary, Ukraine does the same Prisoners in Ukraine to be granted parole for military service

Russia is exploiting Ukraine's lack of manpower to thin out Business Insider.

Russian forces are taking advantage of Ukraine's manpower shortage to thin out the front line and improve their chances of making breakthroughs, a war analyst said.
Franz-Stefan Gady, an adjunct senior fellow with the Center for New American Security, told The New York Times that "the Russians have understood, just as a lot of analysts have, that the major disadvantage that Ukraine is currently suffering from is manpower"
He added: "By thinning out the front line, you are increasing the odds of a breakthrough."
it said that part of Russia's plan, according to military analysts, is to force Ukraine to divert troops from other fronts, notably those in Donbas.
The Times cited a group of Ukrainian special forces who had been redeployed to Kharkiv from the eastern Donbas region,
The Institute for the Study of War, or ISW, drew a similar assessment on Saturday, saying Russian offensive operations in Kharkiv are likely meant to draw Ukrainian forces away from other battlefronts that they could otherwise defend.
This could have long-term implications, if Russia takes advantage of weaknesses in the Ukrainian lines.
Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said there is a danger for Ukraine as it will take months for it to tackle its lack of manpower.
"Ammunition may come in two weeks, but manpower won't,"
While some of the $61 billion in military aid from the US could reach Ukraine in a matter of days, according to the Pentagon, Ukraine's manpower issue is not such an easy fix.
Mark Herlting, a former US lieutenant general, said he doesn't think weapons alone will allow Ukraine to regain the territories it has lost.
"Artillery and long-range systems do not win war," he told CNN last month.
To address the dire situation on the front lines and replenish troops, Ukraine has lowered the conscription age from 27 to 25, done away with some draft exemptions, and created an online registry for recruits, per the Associated Press.
Ukraine's parliament also passed a bill earlier this month that would allow the country's military to recruit prisoners to fight.
Whether these will be enough to replenish Ukrainian forces and prevent Russian breakthroughs remains unclear.

[Alastor]

And another step up the escalation ladder we go:
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/0...ussia-00160731

Biden secretly gave Ukraine permission to strike inside Russia with US weapons

[PointOfViewGun]

And another step up the escalation ladder we go:
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/0...ussia-00160731
[/h]

If Turkey started invading Greece and USA gave permission to Greeks to use American systems to target bases within Turkey, would you call that an escalation as well? Or would you call that a natural response?

[Alastor]

If Turkey started invading Greece and USA gave permission to Greeks to use American systems to target bases within Turkey, would you call that an escalation as well? Or would you call that a natural response?

That's a rather "specific" scenario you are raising, but ok I will answer. It would depend, are these weapons systems Greece had bought and operated themselves, or weapons systems donated to Greece during the invasion to thwart it, alongside American intelligence and planning of course. The first would be using ones means of self-defense, the second would be the US interfering into this invasion against Turkey. Turkey would have definitely seen that as a provocation on behalf of the US, if not a casus belli. And if Turkey actually could pose any threat to the US it could lead to an escalation towards a greater conflagration. Of course, Turkey is not powerful enough to actually threaten the US or for that matter the world so the argument is academic. The point is, Russia is capable of both.

[PointOfViewGun]

That's a rather specific scenario you are raising, but ok I will answer. It would depend, are these weapons systems Greece had bought and operated themselves, or weapons systems donated to Greece during the invasion to thwart it, alongside American intelligence and planning of course. The first would be using ones means of self-defense, the second would be the US interfering into this invasion against Turkey. Turkey would have definitely seen that as a provocation on behalf of the US, if not a casus belli. And if Turkey actually could pose any threat to the US it could lead to an escalation towards a greater conflagration. Of course, Turkey is not powerful enough to actually threaten the US or for that matter the world so the argument is academic. The point is, Russia is capable of both.

Whether the actor is capable of threatening others or not is a moot argument and one that carries water "might makes right" argument. So, you're saying that if USA chose to help Greece thwart a Turkish invasion of Greece by donating new weaponry and letting them use those to strike bases in Turkey you would call it an escalation and be equally opposed to it. OK. Noted.

[StarDreamer]

And another step up the escalation ladder we go:
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/0...ussia-00160731
[/h]

How is removing an entirely arbitrary restriction an escalation? That restriction should never have been there.

[Alastor]

Whether the actor is capable of threatening others or not is a moot argument and one that carries water "might makes right" argument. So, you're saying that if USA chose to help Greece thwart a Turkish invasion of Greece by donating new weaponry and letting them use those to strike bases in Turkey you would call it an escalation and be equally opposed to it. OK. Noted.

Ah, the good old putting words in my mouth tactic. I never said I would be equally opposed to it. I made it clear it wouldn't pose the same threat of a greater conflagration because Turkey is simply nowhere near as powerful as Russia. What could Turkey do if the US provoked them and kept provoking them this way? Turkey couldn't really escalate that hypothetical conflict, but Russia can. So whether the actor is able to take us to WW3 and nuclear apocalypse, what you call a moot point, is the whole point.

How is removing an entirely arbitrary restriction an escalation? That restriction should never have been there.

Yes, how is it an escalation to allow the Ukrainians to attack the Russian homeland with weapons we provide them, with intelligence and planning we provide them, likely even with our specialists helping them use them. That's an entirely normal thing. I wonder, if the Russians gave the Taliban ICBMs and the means to use them against America during the Afghan war, would America say, well that's normal nothing to see here... or would we be halfway to nuclear apocalypse by now.

[PointOfViewGun]

Ah, the good old putting words in my mouth tactic. I never said I would be equally opposed to it. I made it clear it wouldn't pose the same threat of a greater conflagration because Turkey is simply nowhere near as powerful as Russia. What could Turkey do if the US provoked them and kept provoking them this way? Turkey couldn't really escalate that hypothetical conflict, but Russia can. So whether the actor is able to take us to WW3 and nuclear apocalypse, what you call a moot point, is the whole point.

What Turkey can or can't do doesn't change the principal. You seem to be banking on "might makes right" argument indeed.