Brexit - Time to scrap it and start again?

[Paggers]

If the reports about treating Northern Ireland differently from the rest of the UK are true, then there is almost no chance of getting this through the Commons. As much as I don't like that the DUP hold the balance of power, it is undeniable that if Mrs May has broken promises made to the DUP then she deserves to reap the political consequences of so doing. I wonder if she'll get much sleep tonight.

[Dante Von Hespburg]

Ministers called into no 10 individually to go through the document used as a basis for a deal with the EU. So much like schoolboys being called into the Head's office to go through their school report. They will have less than 24 hours to read and absorb a 500 page document with precious little opportunity to discuss in a cabinet meeting. A deal document called Chequers, which they themselves were not involved or consulted upon during its compilation! Even a Thatcher adminstration wouldn't have undertaken that. Is this really how government should operate?


Has it been anything but if viewed in terms of Brexit alone? What it may well mean however more importantly, is the Conservatives being shunned by a large share of the electrate for years to come, many of these their core voters. Tommorrow is a test for the Tory party, but I fear it has probably already been lost.
David Davis, is quite clear what should happen.

I think you've hit exactly what this is by May- Shock and overpower- throw the document at them, replete probably with the usual political tools of carrot and stick and overawe Cabinet into essentially having as little wiggle room as possible when it comes to accepting or not. I think the interesting aspect here though is that even with Cabinet- it won't make it through Parliament if its anything like the 'May' Plan she's been touting (which i suspect it is). The Conservative leavers or remainers would not pin their flag to the poll due to the potential electoral ramifications- the DUP won't support it as @Paggers- your spot on there mate. Labour sense impending GE, the SNP will use it to bash for Scottish indy mark 2- she just doesn't have the numbers as far as i can see, pending some party-wide capitulation (Which in fairness has happened before, with Conservative remainers and leavers at various times putting party unity first over their positions on brexit). I just can't see how she thinks this is going to be politically viable.

However, i don't know if even this will oust May, even if it all goes tits up for her as Brexit is still a thing and they still need a fall-person to take the flak away from any other Conservative MP's. So it'll be interesting (a word i keep using i know) to see if any Leavers or Remainers finally do take the action they've been threatening, or if May truly does become the worlds best political survivor.... through her powers of 'default'.

[Paggers]

It's an all round mess. The only way I can see this getting through is a 3 line whip using the argument that the Labour party will table a vote of no confidence in an attempt to force a general election. I don't think there'll be a move to change leader as no Tory would want the job right now, except Boris. Maybe. If we do have an election I foresee Corbyn having the same battles as May assuming he wins.

[Dante Von Hespburg]

It's an all round mess. The only way I can see this getting through is a 3 line whip using the argument that the Labour party will table a vote of no confidence in an attempt to force a general election. I don't think there'll be a move to change leader as no Tory would want the job right now, except Boris. Maybe. If we do have an election I foresee Corbyn having the same battles as May assuming he wins.

Indeed, i'm not going to place any bets though on if even a 3 line whip will keep the Conservatives in line (If they do finally make good on their threats to make a stand). I think your point about the leader is probably very likely. Boris seems to be 'used goods' currently in terms of election worth- however that is rather perfect as a replacement scapegoat for May as he's already not realistically going to be a 'true' PM. A GE with a probable Corbyn outcome- yep same troubles due to the closeness of the original vote (and even polling saying that's changed is risky) that means a sustainable political settlement is nigh impossible to ever build. Though Corbyn (Who i suspect is probably indeed pro-brexit) would be the opposite of May in having a fanatical liberal-democrat esque cabal of Remainers to contend with, as opposed to May's brexiteer faction. Electoral wise, same issues with the voters though iirc. Though saying this, i would actually feel happier with a Labour led brexit as at least i know then the chances for employment and working rights and protections, would remain strong, with an investment-led strategy (and not as the UN pointed out recently- an 'experiment' into the effects of cutting out state intervention and actors in areas where traditionally its played a vital role from the early 1900s) or at least at EU equivalent- Unlike some influential elements in the Conservative party who have been trying to use brexit as a means to push forward a red-tape bonfire that they know politically alone would never pass Parliament or the electorate. So i'd personally not be overly concerned with Labour taking the reigns- however i do feel they'd be bogged down just as quickly as the Conservatives were in terms of being able to agree on a position and a post-brexit vision of the UK's relationship.

EDIT: Spot of leaking anyone?

https://news.sky.com/story/live-mini...ement-11553451

According to The Sun's political editor, Tom Newton Dunn, Cabinet sources say Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab, Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt, Home Secretary Sajid Javid, Environment Secretary Michael Gove, Transport Secretary Chris Grayling and Commons Leader Andrea Leadsom, all back the deal.

Could be a load of nothing- but if there's truth here, May's effectively hurdled all the key areas of potential opposition in Cabinet. Or of course, this might be a hostile leak being sent out to make her failure tomorrow look even worse (Snatched from the jaws of victory)- however that's me being incredibly cynical. But aye, looks like Boris's calls for resignations will fall on deaf ears from the big guys- however we may see many Junior ministers jump ship still, particularly as i heard them talking about this morning on BBC radio 4, its a better option as Junior ministers tend to be the ones who first take the blame when things go wrong, so better to distance from any controversial brexit deal and see what happens.

[removeduser_487563287433]

From a working class point of view voting remain would have meant that protections in the workplace, or as the Daily Mail says, 'Brussels red tape' would be maintained.

No, that's not an argument for Remain, that's an argument against Brexit. Give me a positive argument for Remain. Tell me why Remain makes my life better than it is.

See? Leave exploited Remain's negative campaigning, and years later you don't have a concise menu of reasons why to vote Remain for positive reasons.

[mongrel]

No, that's not an argument for Remain, that's an argument against Brexit. Give me a positive argument for Remain. Tell me why Remain makes my life better than it is.

See? Leave exploited Remain's negative campaigning, and years later you don't have a concise menu of reasons why to vote Remain for positive reasons.

Cut the strawmanning, leave is a unmitigating disaster, it's not a negative point if you tell the truth. Remain was hampered by a lack of work froim the government to impact its policies. Leave was basically strung trogether using and dog whistles, a time honored tactic.

Btw if you haven't noticed,events have moved on.

[removeduser_487563287433]

I think you're getting my point that the inability to make a positive argument for being a member of the EU is a weakness that led to our utter and continuing failure.

[mongrel]

The effects of Brexit were entirely foreseeable to those with critical faculties.

One doesn't need a positive reason for voting Remain given the utter clusterfeck that is Leave, any more than one needs a positive reason not to sleep with a gonorrrhea patient.

[removeduser_487563287433]

Oh so you're not getting it.

Remember during the campaign when the Brexiteers said Remainers were just fear-mongers? Could only just point out doom and gloom and no positives to staying in the EU? They were right, and they exploited it brilliantly. Until you and other Remainers grasp that we're not going anywhere.

It's no good being the smartest person in the room, if you're the only person in the room, Mongrel.

[mongrel]

Oh so you're not getting it.

Remember during the campaign when the Brexiteers said Remainers were just fear-mongers? Could only just point out doom and gloom and no positives to staying in the EU? They were right, and they exploited it brilliantly. Until you and other Remainers grasp that we're not going anywhere.

It's no good being the smartest person in the room, if you're the only person in the room, Mongrel.

I don't thimk you are getting it.

The thread isn't about the merits of Leave or Remain at all, it certainly isn't about me. The thread presumes that whatever one's position on this issue, it's a clusterfeck and no-one is satisfied with May's performance. I am putting forward the proposition that it is in the national interest to stop the whole charade and start again. (see thread title)

Other posters seem to understand this, so why can't you?

[Paggers]

Indeed, i'm not going to place any bets though on if even a 3 line whip will keep the Conservatives in line (If they do finally make good on their threats to make a stand). I think your point about the leader is probably very likely. Boris seems to be 'used goods' currently in terms of election worth- however that is rather perfect as a replacement scapegoat for May as he's already not realistically going to be a 'true' PM. A GE with a probable Corbyn outcome- yep same troubles due to the closeness of the original vote (and even polling saying that's changed is risky) that means a sustainable political settlement is nigh impossible to ever build. Though Corbyn (Who i suspect is probably indeed pro-brexit) would be the opposite of May in having a fanatical liberal-democrat esque cabal of Remainers to contend with, as opposed to May's brexiteer faction. Electoral wise, same issues with the voters though iirc. Though saying this, i would actually feel happier with a Labour led brexit as at least i know then the chances for employment and working rights and protections, would remain strong, with an investment-led strategy (and not as the UN pointed out recently- an 'experiment' into the effects of cutting out state intervention and actors in areas where traditionally its played a vital role from the early 1900s) or at least at EU equivalent- Unlike some influential elements in the Conservative party who have been trying to use brexit as a means to push forward a red-tape bonfire that they know politically alone would never pass Parliament or the electorate. So i'd personally not be overly concerned with Labour taking the reigns- however i do feel they'd be bogged down just as quickly as the Conservatives were in terms of being able to agree on a position and a post-brexit vision of the UK's relationship.

I have to say agree. I am not a fan of big Government nor protectionism and the EU exhibits signs of both. However, I disagree intensely with using Brexit as cover for a red tape bonfire. ALL of these changes should go through Parliament. I know all politicians have issues with the truth, but abolishing rights and protections should not be done by using powers created for a despotic 16th century monarch. Perhaps it is time for MPs to remind us all that Parliament is sovereign over both the Crown and the Crown's political representatives, ie the Government. Thinking about a possible General Election outcome. Should the Conservative party not win an outright majority (highly likely), would it be possible for remain supporting MPs on all sides of the House to form a majority coalition / new party, push out the remaining rump of whichever party is currently governing and become the new Government. If this is possible then they could enact legislation to stop Brexit. Just a thought.

EDIT: Spot of leaking anyone?https://news.sky.com/story/live-mini...ement-11553451 Could be a load of nothing- but if there's truth here, May's effectively hurdled all the key areas of potential opposition in Cabinet. Or of course, this might be a hostile leak being sent out to make her failure tomorrow look even worse (Snatched from the jaws of victory)- however that's me being incredibly cynical. But aye, looks like Boris's calls for resignations will fall on deaf ears from the big guys- however we may see many Junior ministers jump ship still, particularly as i heard them talking about this morning on BBC radio 4, its a better option as Junior ministers tend to be the ones who first take the blame when things go wrong, so better to distance from any controversial brexit deal and see what happens.

Aye. All the grief and none of the praise.

[Dante Von Hespburg]

I have to say agree. I am not a fan of big Government nor protectionism and the EU exhibits signs of both. However, I disagree intensely with using Brexit as cover for a red tape bonfire. ALL of these changes should go through Parliament. I know all politicians have issues with the truth, but abolishing rights and protections should not be done by using powers created for a despotic 16th century monarch. Perhaps it is time for MPs to remind us all that Parliament is sovereign over both the Crown and the Crown's political representatives, ie the Government. Thinking about a possible General Election outcome. Should the Conservative party not win an outright majority (highly likely), would it be possible for remain supporting MPs on all sides of the House to form a majority coalition / new party, push out the remaining rump of whichever party is currently governing and become the new Government. If this is possible then they could enact legislation to stop Brexit. Just a thought. Aye. All the grief and none of the praise.

That's a more than fair position on regulation and centralized government. I do not begrudge those who believe in a more laissez faire style state, and i especially respect you for your attitude in that this should be done properly and upfront. This is indeed one of the big failings of how the Government have carried out brexit, by allowing the use of Henry VIII shenanigans and actively avoiding parliamentary scrutiny (Again i'll never forget the whole early on 'we don't want to show our hand' to finding out later its in fact- they had no plan, no hand), weighting committees (Highly unusual for a government with no actual majority of its own) etc, they have made sure proper channels- and significantly the major 'bonus' of brexit/the most important part- what the UK itself will be like/the chance to have a national discussion to solve most of the major social and economic issues we currently have- is not just not taking place, but is being hoarded undemocratically by a narrow group- who lets face it, on the domestic front so far have been a disaster.

I agree with your assessment of a GE outcome, and its interesting the idea of a new party forming. I feel its something that can't be discounted- there were rather concrete rumours that Labour and Conservative MP's who were rather centrist have created a skeleton structure for a new parliamentary party supposedly- which has donors and backers financially in place. There are also a lot of other potential areas a party could come from:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...-cracks-brexit

So i think its very viable, but i'm not sure from what we've seen that Labour or Conservative MP's would be willing to leave the 'safety' of their parties, given how brutal FPTP is for new parties, and given how despite a lot of debate and hostility between the factions within both parties currently, we haven't seen any splits (just threats of one) i can't say for sure if we'll see something as dramatic. However, its always an option i agree. Particularly as Macron's rise continues to garner so much interest from centrist MP's in both parties.

EDIT: An element i forgot- but apparently if Cabinet do not oppose the deal, Conservative backbenches are going to send in their letters to the 1922 committee- they have now more than enough to start a leadership contest, and have had for a while, however at the precipice they've always thus far backed down- maybe this could be the red line.

[Paggers]

Cabinet meeting still on going. It looks like the local takeaways will do some business with all the journalists outside number 10.
I also notice RTE are reporting no statement from Mrs May tonight. I can only guess that ministers are finally asking searching questions.
I can't remember being so interested in a political process since the Maastricht votes.

EDIT: Update PM to make statement shortly. Would be very surprised if she takes questions.

[mongrel]

Oh dear.This won't end well.


https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a8633896.html

[Paggers]

Oh dear.This won't end well.


https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a8633896.html

I suspect you're correct. It's hard to understand why the PM would deliberately antagonize the DUP. I can only think that she knows something about the Parliamentary arithmetic. Either that or she's totally lost it.

[neoptolemos]

Seriously with this farse going on one could argue this is another great example of the late realization how bad brexit will be.

[Infidel144]

Personally, Brexit has been good for me,

How has Brexit been good for you?

[mongrel]

How has Brexit been good for you?

Since Brexit , job and promotion prospects have never been so good for policy advisers , or people with experience in writing legisaltion , trade negotiation and handling Parliamentary processes.

[removeduser_487563287433]

Surprised she got cabinet support. Guess it really is crunch time.

[mongrel]

Labour will vote against the proposal, looks dead in the water already .