Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

[Coughdrop addict]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...-a-superpower/

No wonder Putin is reportedly pleading for help from China’s Xi Jinping. If he had sufficient strength in his own war machine, we would have seen it by now, for even the misguided Moscow dictator understands he is in the fight of his life. There are fears that Putin, in desperation, will turn to chemical weapons — the dumbest bombs of all.

And this is as strong as Russia’s going to get. Putin built this force when the world was a relatively friendly place — and the result has proved to be as hollow as a piñata. He has no hope of filling the yawning gaps in his forces while unprecedented economic sanctions choke off his access to money and technology.

Russia’s nuclear arsenal will protect it against direct military aggression. (Not that anyone is threatening to attack.) But the debacle in Ukraine is the end of Russia’s superpower status. In his obsession, Putin has revealed, unprovoked, the extent of his nation’s decline.

A superpower wouldn't be:

-Begging China for weapons and food.
-Placing several of its senior Intelligence Officers under house arrest.
-Still embroiled in what was meant to be a 72 hour war three weeks later...
-Having to recruit foreign fighters to bolster demoralized and under equipped front line troops.
-Having five generals killed in action.

[Condottiere 40K]

In space, no one can poison you.


1. You're firing a hypersonic missile at a ground target.

2. It is no longer available to be aimed at a NATO warship.

3. It's deployed in the presence of massive NATO electronic snooper platforms.

4. NATO forensic teams are likely picking up debris from the target site.

5. Stingers can now shoot down Russian cruise missiles.

6. Presumably, a lot of other Russian surface to surface missiles are now interceptable.

7. The Chinese can't be too keen to have the Americans study hypersonic missiles in action, and start developing counters.

8. Apparently, Russian general number five has bought the farm.

[Alwyn]

As the reported civilian deaths in Ukraine reached 816 (including 59 children) by March 17, and after reported attacks on a theatre and a school where civilians were sheltering, I wonder how many people believe the Russian government's denials that their military are attacking civilian targets.

I'm wondering, too, what effect (if any) messages by people such as Marina Ovsyannikova who interrupted a news broadcast with a placard reading "They're lying to you here”, and Arnold Schwarzegger's video message, are having. Maybe they're having little or no effect, because of censorship of journalists and because many people believe the state-supporting media?

Several reporters who covered anti-war protests like this one in St. Petersburg have been arrested across Russia

It sounds like something out of George Orwell's dystopian classic "1984," but it is a bitter reality for Russian journalists: In their coverage of Russia's war against Ukraine, they are no longer allowed to use certain words such as war, invasion and attack, as announced by Roskomnadzor, the Russian government's media watchdog agency.

Those who spread "false information," according to the Kremlin, are also liable to prosecution. This so-called "false information" includes, among other things, the statement that the Russian army is attacking civilian targets in Ukraine. All lies, according to Moscow ― people should only believe "correct" information, which comes solely from official state sources.

But every day the rest of the world sees new footage of destroyed residential buildings in Ukrainian cities like Kharkiv, where dead bodies are pulled from the rubble.

The Russian government is trying to ban reporting on this by all means. (source)

Despite the censorship, it seems that many Russians are aware of what their military are doing, and of whether their government are telling the truth. Thousands of Russians were reportedly arrested for protesting against the invasion, and it was reported that a Russian teacher, a cinema manager and a paediatrician were told that they had to disassociate themselves from anti-war statements or resign. People wouldn't be fired for criticising the war, if those who fired them thought that no-one would listen.

[Ludicus]

Has my last post been completely deleted, where I stated that, according to the Times of Israel, Russia says military coordination with Israel in Syria will ontinue as usual ?
And also another Times of Israel ‘s article, published yesterday criticing Israel's position? Why Israel's fear of Russia in Syria doesn't have to drive its Ukraine policy?

My post also contained a link to the latest Mearsheimer’s interview just a couple of weeks ago, where he says what he thinks about this war, and what in his opinion might happen at the end of this war.Is it forbidden?
John Mearsheimer Ukraine-Russia 2022 Analysis, without subtitles.




My comments about Boris Johnson, calling him, ironically, the “Zelensky of the Brexit”, were also deleted.Boris Johnson sparks fury after comparison to Brexit - BBC News

Donald Tusk, the former president of the European Council, called the comments offensive.

I also mentioned that the Russians might be tempted to imitate, with their hypersonic missiles, the American nuclear strategy used in Japan.Deleted. (If the right to express what we think or posting "inconvenient" links is subject to iron censorship, there is no point in continuing here)

I would like to add that a substantial part of the humanitarian aid to Ukraine should be paid by those who profit from this war (war industry, oil industry and unimaginable fortunes hidden in offshores) and not only by the ordinary citizen, who is always the first to pay and the first to suffer.

[PointOfViewGun]

I also mentioned that the Russians might be tempted to imitate, with their hypersonic missiles, the American nuclear strategy used in Japan.Deleted. (If the right to express what we think or posting "inconvenient" links is subject to iron censorship, there is no point in continuing here)

Did you just censor yourself and whined about as if others did it?

[StarDreamer]

I would like to add that a substantial part of the humanitarian aid to Ukraine should be paid by those who profit from this war (war industry, oil industry and unimaginable fortunes hidden in offshores) and not only by the ordinary citizen, who is always the first to pay and the first to suffer.

Quite frankly the humanitarian aid should be paid for with frozen Russian assets, since they are the ones responsible for starting this war. If there are frozen assets left after the war they should be used in rebuilding Ukraine.

[Muizer]

My post also contained a link to the latest Mearsheimer’s interview just a couple of weeks ago, where he says what he thinks about this war, and what in his opinion might happen at the end of this war.Is it forbidden?
John Mearsheimer Ukraine-Russia 2022 Analysis, without subtitles.

That's a pretty disingenuous argument tbh. In his allotting responsibility he's comparing the United States' actions toward Russia as those of a man against an actual bear. The wild animal does not need to justify itself, because it's only following his nature, and it is up to man to be circumspect and accommodate its needs. As if Russia determining Ukraine turning into a liberal democracy is an existential threat and the level of destruction justified to prevent this has no moral dimension of its own.

[conon394]

In space, no one can poison you.


1. You're firing a hypersonic missile at a ground target.

2. It is no longer available to be aimed at a NATO warship.

3. It's deployed in the presence of massive NATO electronic snooper platforms.

4. NATO forensic teams are likely picking up debris from the target site.

5. Stingers can now shoot down Russian cruise missiles.

6. Presumably, a lot of other Russian surface to surface missiles are now interceptable.

7. The Chinese can't be too keen to have the Americans study hypersonic missiles in action, and start developing counters.

8. Apparently, Russian general number five has bought the farm.

On 8
Add 6 Colonels as well. Its worse Ukraine also got the deputy leader of the forces from Chechnya - I cannot tell if he should be called a General or a Colonel.

All combat veterans as well. They only started with 20 Generals.

But I guess its clear Russian Military reforms under Putin clearly did address the old soviet problem of lacking a flexible NCO and junior office corps in 'Flag' officers have to so close to front in order to get stuff done. I can some
Colonels particularity out the cluster - f initial days where a lot Russian mobile units were isolated, but still racking them up?

On 4
I was unimpressed I though was a new system. Its modified air launched (only from a Mig 31) Iskander Missile. Although where they used one is being doubted by some:

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...use-in-ukraine

And not the Pentagon so while tracked as not said yes or not to it being hypersonic.
But Russia use of the normal Iskander has relieved something interesting . The Domestic version apparently has slots for 6 decoy devices that was not something that export versions had. KInd of bumer to open reviel for a war that look not wining and just breaking the toy you wanted.

[bitterhowl]

As the reported civilian deaths in Ukraine reached 816 (including 59 children) by March 17, and after reported attacks on a theatre and a school where civilians were sheltering, I wonder how many people believe the Russian government's denials that their military are attacking civilian targets.

You gonna be surprised but this statistics including Donbass casualties from Ukrainian activities.

As for the theatre - they have photos of building itself from above but not a single photo of any victims. A batteries lowered in a cell phone to photo?

As for hypersonic Wunderwafflle - seems that target group recognized a signal - UK and Germany officials expressed concern about that. London intelligence couting the time for hypersonic volley to fly to Big Ben.

[Legio_Italica]

With widespread famine in the cards as a result of the war, one wonders how scalable something like this is, and the extent to which conspiracy theorists would try to derail the effort.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=e2SsheLN1t8

That's a pretty disingenuous argument tbh. In his allotting responsibility he's comparing the United States' actions toward Russia as those of a man against an actual bear. The wild animal does not need to justify itself, because it's only following his nature, and it is up to man to be circumspect and accommodate its needs. As if Russia determining Ukraine turning into a liberal democracy is an existential threat and the level of destruction justified to prevent this has no moral dimension of its own.

Tbf it’s the nature of the theory. Realism doesn’t put much emphasis on domestic politics or institutions, so the comparison between the US and Russia is bound to be a zero sum competition for maximum power, under which things like democracy and authoritarianism are, at most, proxies in a geopolitical context. In light of recent events one might say Mearsheimer overestimates Russia’s status as a great power, as many have. In any case, I think Kotkin’s response to the bear analogy is compelling from a realist perspective.

I have only the greatest respect for George Kennan. John Mearsheimer is a giant of a scholar. But I respectfully disagree. The problem with their argument is that it assumes that, had NATO not expanded, Russia wouldn’t be the same or very likely close to what it is today. What we have today in Russia is not some kind of surprise. It’s not some kind of deviation from a historical pattern. Way before nato existed—in the nineteenth century—Russia looked like this: it had an autocrat. It had repression. It had militarism. It had suspicion of foreigners and the West. This is a Russia that we know, and it’s not a Russia that arrived yesterday or in the nineteen-nineties. It’s not a response to the actions of the West. There are internal processes in Russia that account for where we are today.

I would even go further. I would say that nato expansion has put us in a better place to deal with this historical pattern in Russia that we’re seeing again today. Where would we be now if Poland or the Baltic states were not in nato? They would be in the same limbo, in the same world that Ukraine is in. In fact, Poland’s membership in nato stiffened nato’s spine. Unlike some of the other nato countries, Poland has contested Russia many times over. In fact, you can argue that Russia broke its teeth twice on Poland: first in the nineteenth century, leading up to the twentieth century, and again at the end of the Soviet Union, with Solidarity. So George Kennan was an unbelievably important scholar and practitioner—the greatest Russia expert who ever lived—but I just don’t think blaming the West is the right analysis for where we are.

https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and...kraine-stalin/

[Janbāru]

You gonna be surprised but this statistics including Donbass casualties from Ukrainian activities (...)

Source please?

[conon394]

That's a pretty disingenuous argument tbh. In his allotting responsibility he's comparing the United States' actions toward Russia as those of a man against an actual bear. The wild animal does not need to justify itself, because it's only following his nature, and it is up to man to be circumspect and accommodate its needs. As if Russia determining Ukraine turning into a liberal democracy is an existential threat and the level of destruction justified to prevent this has no moral dimension of its own.

Its not an existential threat to Russia, but it is a one to Putin. The comparison Poland. when the USSR collapsed Poland and the Ukraine had about the same GDP

Poland 1990 - 2020 per capita GDP ($) 1731-15656
Ukraine 1990 - 2020 per capita GDP ($) 1379-3727

This number is even worse since the Ukraine population has declined since 1990.

Pop 1990 2020 (in mil)
Poland 38.11 - 37.95
Ukraine 51.89 - 44.13

Thus with a fairly stable population Poland's per capita GDP is roughly 4 times Ukraine. Even with a smaller population the Ukrainian per capita GDP growth is anemic. What the difference obviously Poland made the hard choices to dissemble a lot of the Soviet era legacy Industry an d of course joined NATO and the EU. The Ukraine stayed as Russian state state. Over time the majority of Ukrainians came to realize between Poland and Russia their leader made the wrong choice, western Europe was the choice to make. A Ukraine morphing into a second Poland is a threat to Putin because it would show the sham of his kleptocratic state for what is. As well a sham covering a get rich plan for Putin and his ilk, while providing only the most thread bare of improvements or average Russia supported by nationalism and reminding everyone how bad it got under Boris.

Mearsheimer is wrong the buffer Putin needs is not some great power military fear of NATO but a buffer of former soviet sates less well off than Russia run autocrats and strong men and corrupt. Thus he can say see look how good you have it. But EU Ukraine, with even if not in NATO army that is trainning with NATO. That day over day is less corrupt, has free elections and starts look way better then his puppet in Belarus... that is a threat worth risking a lot to crush. Its clear a lot Ukrainians have both Russian and Polish confections and I assume the same web spans Belarus as well. So what happens when more Belorussians call their family and friends in Russia having fled to the Ukraine (a lot did) relate how much better it is (obviously pre war). Putin media bubble can only take so much before it cracks

Also contra Mearsheimer is this pod cast. Its a bit irreverent but thay are Both Professors and specialist in IR. And from other comments they do respect Mearsheimer they sort think his take is wrong on this one.

https://www.podomatic.com/podcasts/w...23_54_21-08_00

err edit sorry some bad grammar errors in that one really should go advance for a long post

[Asmodeus]

As for hypersonic Wunderwafflle - seems that target group recognized a signal - UK and Germany officials expressed concern about that. London intelligence couting the time for hypersonic volley to fly to Big Ben

No farms in London

[Mithradates]

So today a Russian tank blew up a nursing home, 56 residents died on the spot, survivors, 15 people were abducted by the occupiers and taken to the occupied territory.

Azov is everywhere!

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Talking about abductions: Mariupol residents are being forced to go to Russia, city council says

"Over the past week, several thousand Mariupol residents have been taken to Russian territory," the city said in a statement. "The occupiers illegally took people from the Livoberezhny district and from the shelter in the sports club building, where more than a thousand people (mostly women and children) were hiding from the constant bombing."
Captured Mariupol residents were taken to camps where Russian forces checked their phones and documents, then redirected some of the residents to remote cities in Russia, the statement said, adding that the "fate of the others is unknown."

Serious WWII vibes...

[bitterhowl]

Radiation ruling the nation.


Continuing theme about Medusa. US officials granted a reward for information about Lavrov's and Putin's and other oligarchs properties abroad. Seems that CIA and FBI doesn't read Medusa and doesn't watch YouTube - all investigation results are there. Just give them a link and imagine how many pills you can buy!

Source please?

https://www.pravda.com.ua/rus/news/2022/03/9/7329635/
It's Ukrainian source. You have to use Google translate.

[Alwyn]

You gonna be surprised but this statistics including Donbass casualties from Ukrainian activities.

As for the theatre - they have photos of building itself from above but not a single photo of any victims. A batteries lowered in a cell phone to photo?

As for hypersonic Wunderwafflle - seems that target group recognized a signal - UK and Germany officials expressed concern about that. London intelligence couting the time for hypersonic volley to fly to Big Ben.

It's not a surprise. I know that many people have been killed in the war in the Donbas region, including thousands of civilians. Sadly, there are a lot of grieving people in this region, elsewhere in Ukraine and in Russia.

I've also seen reports that a Russian Foreign Ministry official accused Ukraine of "systematic extermination" of civilians; the reports say that proof has not been provided for this accusation:

In her Facebook statement, Maria Zakharova also said that at least at least 13,000 people had been killed in the war in eastern Ukraine since 2014. She also claimed that there was a "systematic extermination of the Donbas population." There is no evidence, however, that proves a "systematic extermination" of the civilian population is occurring. An OSCE monitoring mission active in Ukraine since 2014 has found no evidence of mass targeted killings of civilians in the Donbas region. So far, the Russian Foreign Ministry has not provided any proof to back up its claim that the people of eastern Ukraine are subject to "systematic extermination." (source)

There are claims that the Russian military are carrying out indiscriminate attacks in populated areas.

"Civilians are being killed and maimed in what appear to be indiscriminate attacks, with Russian forces using explosive weapons with wide area effects in or near populated areas,” said OHCHR spokesperson Liz Throssell, speaking in Geneva. “These include missiles, heavy artillery shells and rockets, as well as airstrikes. [...]

Fifteen days into the war, schools, hospitals and nurseries have been hit by shelling, Ms. Throssell said, adding that cluster bombs had also been used in several populated areas. Up to midnight on 9 March, OHCHR recorded 549 civilians killed and 957 injured in Ukraine, whilst also acknowledging that that figure is likely to be considerably higher. “On 3 March, 47 civilians were killed when Russian airstrikes hit two schools and several apartment blocks in Chernihiv,” Ms. Throssell said. “On 9 March, a Russian airstrike hit Mariupol Hospital No.3, injuring at least 17 civilians. We are still investigating reports that at least three civilians may have been killed in the airstrike. We spoke to different sources in Mariupol, including local authorities, indicating consistently that the hospital was both clearly identifiable and operational when it was hit. [...]” (source)

I know that it's difficult to know what's happening in a war and the claims might or might not turn out to be correct. Even so, the continuing reports of indiscriminate attacks are troubling.

[Alastor]

A fairly interesting article on Ukraine and whataboutism: https://consortiumnews.com/2022/03/1...-whataboutism/

If Vladimir Putin is described as a war criminal, thug, dictator, and a modern day Hitler, it is appropriate and indeed necessary to ask about American presidents. For brevity’s sake consider only those American presidents who served since 2001. U.S. invasions and interventions in western Asia, North Africa, central Asia and the Horn of Africa have displaced more than 37 million people since the “war on terror” began. Why shouldn’t George W. Bush, Barack Obama, Donald Trump and Joe Biden be called war criminals too? Silence in the face of their criminality gives license and approval to U.S. aggressions.
American exceptionalism is an illness which infects most of the population of this country. Unfortunately most people need little prompting to defend their nation’s misdeeds. George W. Bush is now thought of as a kindly old man who paints pictures of puppies. There is little inclination to acknowledge the one million dead from the Iraq invasion. Doing so would create great discomfort.
Every news story about migrants attempting a perilous crossing from North Africa to Europe should mention the destruction of Libya which took place under the direction of Barack Obama. But Obama is the first Black president, and he is still considered a model of rectitude, a man who brought hope and change. Pointing out his responsibility for an ongoing humanitarian crisis is too much for people propagandized into believing in his goodness and the nation’s.

[Legio_Italica]

The world needs to know about America’s crimes and those of its allies too. When the same European nations that turn away African and Middle Eastern refugees announce that they will accept any and all Ukrainians surely whataboutism is in order.

https://consortiumnews.com/2022/03/1...-whataboutism/

No it isn’t. First, there is the conspiratorial premise inherent to these hot takes that implies the secret knowledge they editorialize about at length is being hidden from the public in order to manipulate us into having critical views of Russia. Second, as a moral false equivalence and as a response to criticism of Russia, whataboutism not only concedes the point it tries to obfuscate, it’s also a textbook logical fallacy. Lots of countries who are by no means sympathetic to American or western exceptionalism oppose Russia and support Ukraine.

Tu quoque is a discussion technique that intends to discredit the opponent's argument by attacking the opponent's own personal behavior and actions as being inconsistent with their argument, therefore accusing hypocrisy. This specious reasoning is a special type of ad hominem attack. "Whataboutism" is one particularly well known instance of this technique.

[PointOfViewGun]

A fairly interesting article on Ukraine and whataboutism: https://consortiumnews.com/2022/03/1...-whataboutism/

That's a rather ignoring article pretty much all of them are called war criminals to the extent of conflicts they've been involved in. The more pointless destruction they caused, the harder the accusation of being a war criminal fell on them. Sure, there are some double standards aspect to it as the severity of accusation is not always up to one's own standards, yet that doesn't change the reality that neither Iraq nor Libya interventions were perceived as just actions.

One thing is for sure; saying "What about Bush/Obama/Trump/Biden?" has no value in Ukraine vs Russia conflict.

[Alastor]

That's a rather ignoring article pretty much all of them are called war criminals to the extent of conflicts they've been involved in. The more pointless destruction they caused, the harder the accusation of being a war criminal fell on them. Sure, there are some double standards aspect to it as the severity of accusation is not always up to one's own standards, yet that doesn't change the reality that neither Iraq nor Libya interventions were perceived as just actions.

One thing is for sure; saying "What about Bush/Obama/Trump/Biden?" has no value in Ukraine vs Russia conflict.

Not being perceived as being just actions and being perceived as the actions of Hitler reborn are hardly equivalent. There is indeed a double standard and the different responses that those events have garnered corroborates it.

As for what the value this has in a Ukraine vs Russia discussion is, it's that it contextualizes the western response. To describe calling attention to such past failings as whataboutism or a fallacy is simply inapplicable when the intent is not to excuse an act. I found the article interesting because it is effectively calling for some introspection from the west in general and America in particular. And we are indeed in need of a good amount of that.